Introduction
We’re steadily approaching the end of this season, and thereby also some drastic changes for a lot of clubs in the Serie A. I would say this is especially the case this year, particularly when it pertains to the managerial situations around the league. Last year we only saw Napoli, Lecce, Hellas Verona and Frosinone undergo a managerial change, whereas this year looks set to see some major changes, especially in the top half of the table. In this article I will do a mock of how this year’s Serie A managerial carousel could develop- and discussing what these potential changes could signify. I will mostly look at some managerial changes that could potentially occur this summer, however I will also be taking a look at Roma and Lazio, who I *spoiler alert* think are going to stick with the managerial changes they’ve made mid-season this year.
Milan get “their guy”, in Thiago Motta
From the perspective of a milanista, Thiago Motta is the manager who I want the club to appoint next summer, but simultaneously the anxious fan in me cannot bring itself to feel confident that Thiago Motta will be the next Milan manager. Specifically, I’m anxious that Motta is going to end up at Juventus, however from a more rational perspective I do think it’s just as possible he ends up at Milan, and more importantly I don’t see many realistic alternatives to Motta for Milan, whereas the same does not apply to Juventus.
I wrote about Milan’s managerial options last summer (read here) and my favorite *realistic* option was Thiago Motta back then, but since then he’s gone to impress me even more. For context, I was not a fan of Motta going into this season, so back in December he still hadn’t fully blown me away (you can skim through my Roma articles from September and October respectively to see the receipts). Nonetheless, I don’t have many reservations about Motta at this point. His Bologna currently sit in fourth place, and it’s highly likely that the club will qualify for the Champions League/European Cup for the second time in its history. Have Bologna overperformed? Sure, to some extent. Has the general level of the teams in Serie A been good this season? The amount of managerial changes that we should see this summer partly answers that question. With that being said, have Bologna been one of the best teams in the league this season? Also yes. Has Thiago Motta’s work with the team impressed? Absolutely, especially considering how he hasn’t just gotten great results with Bologna, but the fact that he has also done so with a style of play that should be applicable to a team of significantly higher standards.
As for why Motta would be such a good option for Milan, we can look beyond the fact that he has played an essential role in a historic season for Bologna. Instead, I think it’s important to look at his tactics, how those tactics have produced results, and how Motta has developed his players. Milan have been suffering enormously under Stefano Pioli, and they need help in all of these aforementioned departments: they need to change their tactical identity, they obviously need to be more tactically proficient, and they need a coach who can develop the players—particularly the younger players. Motta is an excellent option in this regard, because even last season his buildup structures, pressing structures and technical coaching were all highly intriguing, although the performances were actually quite poor. Likely, the poor level of performances was largely due to growing pains and a difficult transitioning period for the squad as Motta he had taken over in the middle of the season (more or less), because Motta’s dynamic pressing and buildup structures have actually been backed by results this season—to say the least. Bologna currently rank fifth in the league for xGA (via FBref)—not too far off third-placed Torino, and they also rank seventh in xG. For what it’s worth, they average a high percentage of possession as well, but this is of course reductive when it comes to technical coaching and buildup principles; more possession doesn’t necessarily mean more control. In fact, Inter rank just fifth in average possession, and tactically they’re the best team in the league on all fronts. Motta hasn’t only helped his team excel at building up from the back, but the way he structures his team with the ball has also played a key role in its defensive success. In his Coverciano Thesis, Motta wrote about the philosophy of “thinking of attacking while defending and thinking of defending while attacking”, which summarizes his tactical identity- and prowess quite well. Bologna’s structure in possession allows the team to win the ball back quickly when they inevitably lose possession at some point- or otherwise avoid giving up big spaces/dangerous transitions. Similarly, their structure out of possession is not only very solid defensively, but is also focused on the ball being won back in positions that can create dangerous attacks.
In my opinion, Milan are just an inevitable striker signing away from having the strongest squad in Italy by a pretty good margin, so what they really need is a coach that can get the most out of that squad. Thiago Motta has the right ideas and the results on the pitch have been highly impressive. I think Motta would make Milan truly competitive; a team that people fear, which is a jump they have desperately needed to make since their scudetto-winning season. However, Milan’s need is not only to improve as a collective, but also to develop their players, which is something Motta has done quite well at Bologna so far. Given his somewhat limited squad it’s hard to fully judge him, and in my eyes Motta’s actual development of his players hasn’t quite been as impressive as their respective growth suggest, if that makes sense. Players like Riccardo Calafiori, Jhon Lucumí, Stefan Posch, Lewis Ferguson and Joshua Zirkzee have all grown individually, however that has largely been a matter of floor-raising from Motta’s part; these players have grown to become surprisingly (for the most part) good. So, on the last note, how Motta would be able to handle exciting primavera prospects such as Jan-Carlo Simić is hard to foresee; as is his ability to raise the ceiling of more established talents like Malick Thiaw and even Rafael Leão. Nonetheless, it’s only worth pointing out that Motta hasn’t proven to be a sensation in this regard for the sake of nuance. He has still shown a lot of promise and his ideas and results alone make him an excellent option for Milan. The fit would be ideal for both parties in my eyes: Milan would make the next step and truly become competitive after years of stagnation, and Thiago Motta would get the opportunity to lead arguably the biggest club in the country to glory; getting the most out of a talented group players who have been wasted in recent years.
Zinedine Zidane returns to Juventus
Again, I think Thiago Motta to Juventus is a real possibility, and it would be an excellent option for them. However, for the sake of this article, I think Motta to Milan and Zidane to Juventus is a more fun outcome, that still absolutely benefits Juve. Zinedine Zidane has grown to become a controversial manager, and for a while I was a part of the more critical side—in fact in the past I have written about having not liked Zidane as a managerial option for Juventus numerous times. In recent months he has since grown on me, though.
Zidane has been criticized for not being any form of groundbreaking tactician, and for relying on individual brilliance, but you only need to see how his teams have fared before his arrival, after his arrival, and after his departure, to get a glimpse of how important he can be. One element which is essential to highlight when it comes to managers, is how they connect with their team, and the environment they create for their players. Of course it’s hard to get a grasp of this from the outside looking in, but rather than knowing exactly what goes on on the inside, I think it’s simply worth accounting for the fact that a manager’s job isn’t always to find all the tactical solutions, and then let the players do job on the pitch. If a team is achieving positive results (not just in terms of the scorelines but also the performances), the manager probably deserves credit, although there’s obviously much more nuance to account for. I think Zidane’s overwhelming material success in his managerial career in such a short period is a clear indication that he’s a great manager—sometimes it’s just that simple. Then, it’s also important to note that different managers fit in different situations, which is what makes them so difficult to assess—especially in relation to each other. However, I also don’t want to characterize Zidane as someone who simply connects with his players well, and then they go out on the pitch and win three consecutive Champions Leagues. I think Zidane is strong tactically, and more adaptable than many would give him credit for. His job would be to take Juventus in the right direction, and I think he has what it takes to achieve that.
Juventus are currently marred by a manager who perhaps shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, but whose tactics are outdated, and who has clearly hit his ceiling. For as much as Zinedine Zidane is known as a man-manager, I thoroughly believe that he would pull Juventus in the right tactical direction. For one, despite their almost exclusive usage of a 3–5–2 since last season, I think Juve’s squad is more suited towards a 4–3–3 than to any other formation. Simultaneously, although Juve’s squad consists of an odd, awkward mix of tactical profiles, I think its most important players are generally more suited towards a style that is quite different from that of the current one. That is to say, I think Juventus would improve under Zidane because of the fit alone. However, if we then look at the bigger picture—which is that Juventus have struggling in recent years and want to become a European powerhouse again—I think Zidane has even more to offer. Again, the tactical fit is great and will lead to improvement, but in the long-term I’m also confident that Zidane is quite simply good enough to lead this team to success. As someone who initially got the Real Madrid job—not through his name- and history at the club, but rather through his work with Real Madrid Castilla — I think Zidane could be an excellent fit at Juventus in terms of youth development. Juve currently have the leading youth sector in the country and one of the strongest youth sectors in the world, with many talents having been poorly treated in recent years. Acquiring a manager who can nurture these players and/or pull them back in the right direction is crucial for Juventus, which is a big reason why Zidane excites for me.
I think Zidane could be willing to return to Turin to bring Juventus back to glory, and with adequate help from the directors at the club I also think he is good enough to achieve just that.
Davide Possanzini keeps Bologna’s future bright and exciting
It should be said that Thiago Motta’s departure from Bologna is no guarantee, considering the option of remaining at the club for another season—in the event they qualify for the Champions League—has to be enticing. In any case, this mock assumes that Motta does leave Bologna when his contract expires at the end of the season, which leaves the legendary Giovanni Sartori with the task of having to replace him. In the end, Sartori was somewhat lucky to land Motta in 2022, as the signs of what Motta could theoretically become were apparent, but with Motta having failed to achieve enough as a head coach to even get any job following his departure from Spezia, let alone a prestigious one. A comparable opportunity is likely not going to arise this summer, which means Sartori will likely have to take a bigger risk. Of course, Sartori is ambitious and didn’t just stumble upon Thiago Motta; he has had the goal of making Bologna competitive, which has naturally called for a skilled, progressive manager who hadn’t already been picked up by a bigger club. The Italian manager that will best fit that description next summer, is probably Davide Possanzini.
Now, Possanzini is currently managing Mantova in Serie C, which is why this is a risky appointment — especially going into what will most likely be a season with European football. However, Possanzini’s results with Mantova have been excellent, and perhaps what makes him an even more exciting name is his tactical identity- and past. Between 2016 and 2022, Possanzini was Roberto De Zerbi’s assistant manager, which also meant that he followed De Zerbi from Palermo, to Benevento, to Sassuolo, and finally to Shakhtar Donetsk before their paths separated. Naturally, Possanzini’s style is highly inspired by De Zerbi’s, and a coach like that has to be intriguing for a club like Bologna, if Motta is to leave.
As for Possanzini’s actual results in his head coaching career, he may have been sacked from Brescia after just two games, but this article quite funnily explains how that went down. Possanzini “wanted to play like De Zerbi”, was supposedly Massimo Cellino’s reasoning for his dismissal of De Zerbi, and that is not necessarily a rejection of thestyle of play, but rather an admission that the club made the wrong call by appointing Possanzini as it was just the wrong fit; “the team needs long balls for Florian Ayé”. Sure enough, it was a completely disastrous season for Brescia as well, who fired their manager four times that very season, ending in what should’ve been their relegation to Serie C, however the financial irregularities of Reggina saw them relegated instead. Possanzini’s next opportunity would be offered by Mantova, who haven’t even played in Serie B since their bankruptcy in 2010, and who finished just 16th in Serie C’s Girone A last season. Making anything out of that team would be a tough task, but Mantova seem set for promotion as early as in March, as they are currently top of the league by 12 points — quite the feat, which showcases that Possanzini’s tactics are not just a matter of aesthetics, but that they can produce results.
How much more than Davide Possanzini had Thiago Motta really achieved as a head coach when he was appointed by Bologna? Sure, he had multiple Serie A seasons under his belt, but although he had helped Spezia avoid relegation in 2021–22, the team probably should’ve been relegated based on its performances, while Motta’s prior stint with Genoa only lasted about two months. I think Thiago Motta has given off the wrong picture of what’s really going on at Bologna; this isn’t a one man job. Even back when I actively wasn’t a big fan of Motta, I was planning on writing an article on Giovanni Sartori, and the prospect of Bologna being “the new Atalanta”. This is all to say that I think that Bologna will have one of the most exciting and inspiring sporting projects in Europe as long as they have Giovanni Sartori, and the appointment of Davide Possanzini could end in Bologna shocking a lot of people: they’re here to stay. Based on his tactical identity and results, I think Possanzini would be perfect for Bologna.
Roma stick with Daniele De Rossi
Last January, Roma made the bold decision to fire then-manager José Mourinho. Mourinho’s stint- and status at Roma was incredibly complicated, which was something I dove into in this article. I ended up arguing that the best move for Roma was to move on from Mourinho when possible, and instead appoint a younger, more tactically exciting manager, who is also more adept at player development. Now, when Roma fired Mourinho, the replacement ended up being Daniele De Rossi, at least temporarily. De Rossi is arguably the second greatest Roma player of all time, but as a manager it’s not harsh to say that he had achieved nothing prior to his appointment as interim manager at the club. All he had under his belt was a stint at SPAL, in which he’d been brought in during October to save the club from relegation to Serie C; something he failed at, which led to him being sacked in February. He hadn’t been given much to work with, so it was only fair to not judge him too severely for the stint, but in any case it certainly didn’t imply that he was anything special as a manager. However, De Rossi now has over two months of experience at one of Italy’s biggest clubs, so in the context of this article it’s worth asking if he has shown that he fits the aforementioned profile of the ideal Roma manager? Well, in reality it probably doesn’t matter. In terms of the results, Daniele De Rossi has taken Roma by storm, and if you have watched just one game- or generally kept up with the club, you will not have missed how high morale is at the club right now. This is to say that Roma have passed the point of no return. With the bonafide Roma legend having given the supporters immense joy, the club essentially has no choice but to make Daniele De Rossi the next head coach of Roma. What could change this, is some sort of collapse at the end of the season, and based on how Roma have actually performed so far under De Rossi, this is a possibility. Nonetheless, when morale is as high as it currently is at Roma, a sudden collapse within an 11+ game sample size does not seem likely. Again, I think Roma have no choice but to give De Rossi a permanent role, but as previously implied I see this as a bit of a predicament for Roma.
The difficulty for Roma *in my opinion* is that the club seems to be in such amazing shape at the moment, and the fans are overjoyed, but this is not truly reflective of what Roma’s coaching change has entailed. Of course, I am in no position to tell the fans how to feel, nor is that my intention. In fact, this was something I discussed in the previously referenced article. At the time, I was of the opinion that the best move for Roma was to move on from Mourinho, and that he had been holding the club back, despite the widespread, deep affection that the supporters had for him. However — as also mentioned in that article — if the supporters are truly happy, is it really appropriate to make a change, even if the sporting direction isn’t inspiring from a more “objective” perspective? After all, the game is quite literally all about how it makes us feel, which is the problem with the so-called “celebration police(s)”, something I most definitely want to distance myself from. Nonetheless, even the Mourinho era came to its abrupt end when the results just became too overwhelmingly disappointing, and while many of the supporters — the ultras especially — defended Mourinho, athere are extremely few who are unhappy with the managerial change a few months later… except, the irony is that I believe Roma are going through the same thing again: the supporters are satisfied, they don’t want change, but in the end a managerial change would probably be in the best interest of the club, which the fans would eventually see.
So, what is the problem with De Rossi? Well, in terms of performances, not much has really changed with Roma. Bear in mind, this is based on a very limited sample size and should be taken with at least a grain of salt, but since appointing De Rossi, Roma’s total expected points have added up to 14.61 over nine games (via Understat). For reference, this is on pace for 61.67 expected points over a full season, which would have been good for the seventh best in Serie A last season. Again, the sample size here is so limited that it’s very bold to assume that Roma would sustain this average over a full season, but if anything this only speaks against Roma’s favor in this particular case. You see, in Serie A, Roma have faced Hellas Verona (currently 15th), Salernitana (one of the worst teams in the modern history of Italian football), Cagliari (currently 16th), Inter (currently first), Frosinone (currently 18th), Torino (currently 11th), Monza (currently 10th), Fiorentina (currently eighth), and Sassuolo (currently 19th) under De Rossi so far. This is to say that Roma have faced five of the seven worst teams in the league (all of which are battling relegation), and the remaining matches have not been overwhelmingly difficult either, as Roma have only faced one true top team. Sure, Roma did knock out Feyenoord in the Europa League, which was impressive, but a draw over two legs against Feyenoord should not be seen as an extraordinary feat for Roma, or rather De Rossi, quite frankly. Furthermore, Roma’s dismantling of Brighton in the Europa League was impressive, but they’re not the only team to run Brighton over this season: they had just lost 3–0 to Fulham in the previous match, and even Luton Town were able to beat them 4–0 (like Roma) earlier in the season.
Of course, this is not to entirely dismiss what De Rossi has achieved in his managerial stint at Roma so far, but to contextualize it. I genuinely have not been particularly impressed with Roma when I’ve watched them under De Rossi this season. As for his widely positive reception of De Rossi, I just think that people have been too caught up with the highly negative results and aesthetically displeasing style of play under Mourinho; subsequently making the improved results- and style under De Rossi seem overwhelmingly positive. It just feels dishonest to an extent. When Roma lost to Inter 2–4, they were praised for their performance, and for what? Sure, they didn’t lose the possession battle in the same manner they had in their previous match against Inter, and they had also had the lead at one point in that game, but how strong was the actual performance? In the end it was a match in which neither team really created anything from open play, and 0–0 was probably a more reflective result of the eventual matchup on the pitch. Sure, Inter have been dominant this season, but they have not been as historically strong as the results imply, and a 0–0 draw against Inter on paper (NOT in reality, mind you) is not inspiring in my eyes; Genoa did the same thing in December with a significantly weaker squad. Again, this is not to dismiss De Rossi entirely, but I just feel like this is much more of a lateral move than it seems. The team might be more exciting in its methods, but if anything the actual output *beyond the results* is actually worse. Roma were relatively fortunate to beat Hellas Verona; their performance against Salernitana was not impressive considering how poor Salernitana are; their performance against Inter was nothing too special, again; their performance against Frosinone was not as dominant as the scoreline implied; they were completely outplayed by Fiorentina, despite the draw, and they were also fortunate to beat Sassuolo in their most recent match. Again, the sample sizes are limited here, but in slight contrast to Roma’s 61.47 expeted points-pace under De Rossi this season, their pace under Mourinho — with a more reliable sample size — was 63.76, which he was sacked for. The somewhat mediocre performances under De Rossi haven’t just been a matter of mere numbers, but the setup of the team itself. Again, Roma may press higher and they may be more intricate in their buildup play, but they have not become stronger as a football team. They have generally tended to concede particularly many chances when they’ve looked good going forward, and when they’ve been able to protect their box they’ve simultaneously struggled to create — it’s uninspiring.
Overall, I think there are a lot of parallels that you could make here, but one of the most clear ones is to Milan and Stefano Pioli. Pioli was originally brought in as an interim, and while the club intended to replace him with Ralf Rangnick in the summer, the results were so strong to end off the season that the club had no choice but to keep Pioli on a permanent basis. Sure, Pioli would lead Milan to a historic return to the Champions League- and a subsequent scudetto, but I would argue that the club would ultimately have been better off with someone else, as Pioli’s ceiling simply wasn’t very high. As for De Rossi, I don’t think the floor is particularly low, but I also don’t think the ceiling is very high at all either. It should be noted that it’s difficult to instill a philosophy- and to establish a certain style of play at a club when you’ve taken over it in the middle of the season, as exemplified by Thiago Motta, among others. However, so far nothing really suggests that De Rossi is a great manager, and in any case I think much superior names will be on the market this summer. Do Roma have the option to not give him a contract, though? Probably not.
Napoli get back on track with Vincenzo Italiano at the wheel
Vincenzo Italiano to Napoli is a move which makes a lot of sense in theory, and sure enough it has also begun to gain traction in the media recently. It’s ironic, really; after Luciano Spalletti departed at the end of last season, Napoli were at least supposed to be in great position to secure a solid replacement, with the pulling power they would inevitably have after a dominant scudetto win. However, they ended up with Rudi García, who only lasted a few months at the club, and it’s this summer in which their options should be more interesting; in fact they wanted Italiano to replace Spalletti last year, but were unwilling to buy out his contract, which is now set to expire this summer.
So why does this move make sense? Well, again, even with the departure of Luciano Spalletti, Napoli were supposed to have built on last year’s scudetto and establish themselves as a true top team in the country for years to come, but instead the following year ended up being a disaster which now rather has Napoli set for a rebuild this summer. Club legend Piotr Zieliński is set to leave the club; their best player Victor Osimhen too, and of course they will also be able to take a chance on a new manager — hopefully a more ambitious hire in contrast to their previous one. With this context in mind, Italiano is a great option. As for the rebuild-aspect of Napoli’s situation, Italiano is still only 46 years old, and given his previous experience a move to Napoli feels like a very natural step in his career. Perhaps more importantly though, Italiano largely embodies the contemporary ethos of Napoli, which has come to define them since the appointment of Maurizio Sarri in 2015. Intricate buildup patterns- and structures, positional play, as well as hig pressing out of possession are the basic characteristics of Italiano, and at Fiorentina they have generally come with a lot of success. In more simple, intuitive terms, Napoli are supposed to be a team that excite, for better or worse. The only caveat here is that Fiorentina have only seemed to regress since Italiano’s highly successful debut season at the club. In that season, they were quite clearly a European-caliber team based on both performances and results, but since then they have become more of a higher-mid-table outfit with increased struggles; inconsistencies and tactical sacrifices. Italiano’s attempts at pragmatism have often resulted in dull, uninspiring performances, whereas his lack of pragmatism has often resulted in significant defensive vulnerability.
In any case, on a wider scale, Fiorentina’s floor really hasn’t been particularly low under Italiano, as they’ve essentially been a bonafide mid-table side at worst, and have usually been better than that. It should by all means be noted that — despite Italiano’s first season at Fiorentina implying a return to a level more reflective of the club’s historical- and cultural status — his squads have largely been quite underwhelming, perhaps most notably in attack and in midfield. A lot of Fiorentina’s struggles come from a lack of screening of the defense by the midfield, and a lack of decisiveness in the final third due to a sheer lack of quality. Additionally, the rest of the team is hardly on a Europa League level, let alone a Champions League level. One takeaway from this is that Italiano can produce excellent results with the right players, however it should simultaneously be noted that the volatility of his teams can be quite high, especially when the quality of his players is compromised. Nonetheless, Italiano may be a bit of a bold appointment for clubs like Juve or Milan, but Napoli really can’t aim much higher, which isn’t a bad thing either. Since his stint at Spezia, Italiano has been one of the most interesting managerial names in Italy, and it wasn’t long ago that he seemed destined to take over one of the big three clubs in the country. From his age, to his tactical identity, to his southern roots, to the way Napoli’s personnel suits his style of play, Italiano seems like the perfect fit for Napoli, and after the chaos of the previous year, he could bring some optimism back to Naples.
Maurizio Sarri takes a small step back and returns “home”, to Fiorentina
The underlying numbers always showed that Sarri’s supposedly great work with Lazio was always an illusion, and I think this season has proven that. Truthfully, he just isn’t an extraordinary floor-raising manager anymore, but from Fiorentina’s perspective there will be no option as enticing as Maurizio Sarri if Vincenzo Italiano leaves. Sarri may have been born in Naples, but he was raised in Tuscany, and it was with Empoli that he had his true breakout that earned him his move to Napoli. With his stocks having dropped successively ever since his departure from Naples, a return to Tuscany might be perfect for him. A new Italiano likely won’t be available for Fiorentina in the summer, so maybe they should simply make an attempt to hire a more accomplished (yes, despite the lack of titles) manager like Sarri.
Sarri’s stint at Lazio saw him seemingly become increasingly rigid and a lot less exciting. The team was unusually direct and vertical in possession, and unusually conservative outside of it. Perhaps these were reasonable pragmatic measures from Sarri given the players he had to work with, but at the same time these measures never led to his team exceeding expectations… at least not in terms of their performances. In any case, this element of stability might be attractive to a team that has been extremely volatile under Vincenzo Italiano. Fiorentina have notably been highly vulnerable defensively under Italiano, and while the underlying numbers of Sarri’s Lazio were never extraordinary, this was largely inevitable with the defenders he had to work with — especially out wide. As for Fiorentina, I think their defensive unit is more talented overall, and especially out wide.
Really, I don’t think Sarri at Fiorentina would be too different from his stint at Lazio, to be completely honest. In fact, the two clubs are quite similar in terms of their status- and significance in Italian football, despite Lazio having been much more prominent competitively over the last 30 years or so. Their squads aren’t particularly far off in terms of quality, but are rather different in terms of their respective arrays of profiles. On this note, I think Sarri is a better fit for Fiorentina, and I also believe that Fiorentina’s ambitions are still lower nowadays anyway. Nonetheless, I still think this move is mostly exciting on the surface: Sarri returning to Tuscany, and to a club which hasn’t won a scudetto since the 1950’s, is a nice story more-so than it is a game-changer for Fiorentina. Ultimately I wonder how far he could take this team, because Lazio’s squad really isn’t that far ahead of that of Fiorentina, as mentioned, and his results with Lazio were not overwhelmingly positive anyway. In any case, I don’t think Fiorentina have many alternatives. Perhaps this would be a good stopgap until the next up-and-coming manager from the lower end of the league shows up. Until then, I absolutely believe Maurizio Sarri would be able to keep this team afloat.
Lazio prepare to leapfrog Roma with Igor Tudor
Whereas Lazio appear to currently be in an extremely vulnerable position and Roma seem to be on top of the world, I don’t think it will take long for Lazio to overtake Roma. Lazio hit the jackpot when they were able to replace Maurizio Sarri with none other than Igor Tudor in the middle of the season; I truly think he’s quite comfortably a better manager than Sarri nowadays. In fact, for reference, when Igor Tudor took over at Hellas Verona in 2021–22 they had lost each of their first three games of the season, but following the appointment of Igor Tudor they would amass just 5.67 fewer expected points and five less points than Lazio for the final 35 games of the season (via Understat). At the end of the season, Igor Tudor would leave Hellas Verona, and they would subsequently end up being a playoff game away from relegation to Serie B. It should be noted that Verona had also lost key players Giovanni Simeone, Nicolò Casale, Antonín Barák, Gianluca Caprari and Ivan Ilić (in January), but even then this doesn’t fully explain the drop-off—Ilić is the best player in that list by a pretty good margin in my opinion, and Verona were already deep in the relegation zone when he left the club. Tudor’s following season at Marseille would go under the radar, but was also quite impressive, partly as it saw his tactics become more ambitious as the expectations were raised, which unequivocally produced results. Tudor’s Marseille would comfortably finish third, clinching the opportunity to qualify for the Champions League, while also being a Sead Kolašinac header away from finishing first in their Champions League group that season. Sure, it was not an overwhelmingly successful stint, but Tudor’s more developed- and expansive tactics were highly impressive, and Marseille currently sit seventh (this season out of 18 teams, as opposed to 20 teams last season) following Tudor’s departure.
So, what can Tudor do with Lazio? Well, no matter which players you give him, he will convince; that’s what he’s shown us over the last 2–3 years. He transformed Hellas Verona into a borderline Europa Conference League team in a season in which Verona looked like they could be relegated after the first three games. Then, at Marseille, he led the club to a Champions League spot, and he “coached” a qualification to the knockout stages of the competition that same season. As touched on earlier in this article, I don’t think Sarri has done a particularly good job of raising the floor at Lazio, and I expect Tudor to show how it’s done, quite frankly. Again, it should also be noted that Tudor’s Hellas Verona really weren’t that much weaker than Sarri’s Lazio in 2021–22, despite the significant difference in the quality of players. Substantial parts of Lazio squad range from poor to average, but there’s also a lot of quality that I don’t believe has been fully exploited under Sarri. For one, Nicolò Rovella has the potential to be one of the best midfielders in the world, and Luis Alberto IS the best midfielder in the Serie A in my opinion. Daichi Kamada is also a capable midfielder who can do a lot more than what he’s shown so far. Matteo Guendouzi is a player who found some success under Tudor at Marseille last season. Taty Castellanos has shown promise in the few opportunities he’s received at Lazio, and could be a worthy successor of Immobile — the latter of which is no longer a reliable striker. Gustav Isaksen has shown a lot of promise outside of Italy, and given he’s still so young and has struggled to be fully integrated under Sarri, I think we could expect more from him under Tudor. Furthermore I think Alessio Romagnoli and Nicolò Casale are more suited towards Tudor’s buildup play, despite their defensive shortcomings. This is all just a matter of potential floor-raising in the short-term so far, but aside from that I would quite plainly like to claim that Tudor’s tactical prowess is enough for Lazio to punch above their weight in the long-term—it’s just that simple to me. If we are to compare them to Roma, I think Roma have a slightly better squad, and their financial situation appears to be slightly better — especially in the long-term as their brand is bigger and they have a bigger fanbase. However, these advantages don’t appear particularly significant for Roma, and I think the gap between Daniele De Rossi and Igor Tudor as managers is much more notable. As implied earlier, Tudor has shown amazing abilities as a floor-raiser with Hellas Verona, but has also led a stronger squad to a Champions League spot with Marseille, and I think this bodes extremely well for his chances to succeed at Lazio. In other words, I think he can make the most out of the very flawed squad he’s currently working with, and if he can get a little help from the management I don’t think a return to the Champions League (possibly a sustained one) should be out of the equation at all. From Lazio’s perspective, making a managerial appointment that should put them in a better long-term position than Roma is obviously exciting, but even in a vacuum I think this is just a great move for Lazio; he can take them far.
Torino remain stable with Fabio Grosso
Torino’s situation is very comparable to that of Fiorentina. Their current manager was appointed after a bad 2020–21 season for the club, before the floor was immediately raised, although the team would stagnate in the following two seasons. This development applies to both of these teams. As for Fiorentina, they have — again — begun to stagnate, and Vincenzo Italiano has simultaneously come under increased scrutiny, being widely criticized for the defensive issues of his team. As for Toro, they have gone through the same process, with Ivan Jurić instead having become infamous as the orchestrator of perhaps the most dull team in Europe. This season, Torino have 10 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, having scored less than a goal a game, and also have conceded less than a goal a game — it’s Jurić’s most dedicated attempt at killing the sport of football yet, and that’s saying something. With all of this being said, however, I think Jurić is disrespected by many in a similar way to Vincenzo Italiano. The work he’s done with this team should not go under the radar. Since Toro finished 17th in 2020–21, Ivan Jurić has transformed them into perhaps the most reliable mid-table team in the top five leagues. Perhaps more importantly, Ivan Jurić has all but confirmed that he will leave the club at the end of the season, and there’s a real chance that we’ll appreciate Jurić a lot more next season; when another manager is challenged to outdo him. I think the truth is that Toro can’t improve on Jurić, and it’s probably even hard for them to find a reliable option which allows them to move in a more exciting tactical direction with a higher ceiling. Instead, they should look to appoint a moderately similar manager, who can at least come close to replicating what Jurić has done in recent seasons. My suggestion is Fabio Grosso.
So who is Fabio Grosso? Well, if you’re reading this, you know that, and I’m hoping you even know what he’s been up to in recent years too. Last season he led Frosinone to promotion to Serie A, as they won Serie B rather comfortably. He didn’t do so with incredibly innovative tactics, but rather with a solid, compact 4–3–3 mid block that got the job done in both halves. There are some clear practical similarities between Grosso and Jurić, and if Grosso is going to succeed at a Serie A club, Torino should easily be his best bet. Then, as far as how far he can take them, I think it’s only realistic to not expect this team to go further than it has under Ivan Jurić until the right managerial opportunity arises. As for this summer, I don’t think it will, unless I’m simply ignorant to the tacticians Italian football has to offer at the moment. I think Italy’s eternal cult hero is a great option for Toro once Ivan Jurić inevitably leaves this summer — he gets the job done.
