Milan are in crisis… again, or so it’s said at least. From my perspective, the club has essentially been in crisis throughout the entire year, and at this point I’ve said more than enough on the topic across my different social media accounts. I’ve had many issues with the club this year, but the main issue has unequivocally been the club’s decision to keep Stefano Pioli for this ongoing season. Finally, it now seems we’re approaching the end of the Stefano Pioli era at Milan. He is unlikely to be fired during the season, but it is perhaps even more probable than him keeping his job once the season is finished, which is essentially to say that Milan will almost certainly be looking for a new manager next summer.
Finally, Milan have an opportunity to set things straight and truly get this sporting project going. It was Stefano Pioli who was the manager amidst Milan’s rise from mediocrity to one rather miraculous (mostly in retrospect) scudetto, and perennial Champions League participation, but it’s been time for the club to take the next step ever since that scudetto. Naturally, Milan could not move on from Pioli following the scudetto, but the decision to keep him past the subsequent, disappointing 2022–23 season was odd. Even more odd, was the decision to give Pioli a two-year contract extension, which was ironically announced following a dull 0–0 draw to Cremonese, the worst team in the Serie A at the time. Milan were not supposed to win the scudetto in 2021–22, and sure enough they would regress to an approximate, unimpressive top four team in Italy following this season. However, Milan have the squad to be so much more, and with their financial situation and abundance of promising u25 players, the future of Italian football can be theirs with the right manager. Ideally, Milan would appoint a relatively young, tactically promising, and successful manager next summer, who can help the club reach its potential. Whether or not such a manager will be available next summer, and who that would be, is hard to determine right now. Let’s take a look at some of the options!
(If you want to skip ahead to my four primary candidates for the Milan job, start reading from the section about Ignazio Abate)
Antonio Conte:
Antonio Conte’s name will inevitably be linked to Milan to some extent at some point, but how good of an option is he? He is one of the biggest managerial names who will be available next summer, and with him being a legend in Italian football as both a player and a manager, it would be shocking if he were to not be linked to one of Italy’s three biggest clubs next summer, Milan. However, there isn’t much that makes sense about this appointment, and I’m merely bringing it up because I’m certain his name will be in the mix, whether that’s referring to the general discourse, the media, or even both.
It should be said that there are some aspects that make Conte an attractive option on the surface. For one, his track record his extraordinary… to an extent. What he has never failed to do since being appointed as Juventus manager in 2011, is significantly improve his team in the short-term. At Juventus he won three consecutive scudetti in three seasons, after the club had finished seventh and trophy-less in the season prior to his appointment. With the Italian national team he led an extremely poor team on paper (for Italian standards) to the quarter finals, where he only lost to Germany on penalties, who in turn were unlucky to lose to France in the semi finals… who in turn were unlucky to lose to Portugal in the final. At Chelsea, despite a poor start to his first season, Conte led his team to an emphatic title win, following a 10th place finish the year prior. At Inter, he nearly led the club to its first scudetto in 10 years in his first season, ultimately only finishing one point behind the champions, but the following season he would succeed in dominant fashion. Finally, at Tottenham, Conte initially took over a team in crisis in the middle of the season, and proceeded to lead them to a fourth place finish nonetheless. What Conte never fails at is raising the floor in the short-term, which may seem very suitable for Milan, but aside from this aspect there are countless concerns that make Conte a really poor fit.
First of all, due to his track record, Conte would be a very expensive appointment, which is not a deal-breaker, but also not ideal. However, when you combine this with other factors, it is a deal-breaker. For instance, Conte also comes with a lot of leverage, and can be considered a bit of a loose cannon in that regard. He usually likes to have a lot of influence on the sporting direction of the club he’s appointed by, and if his vision doesn’t align with that of the club, it tends to get very ugly. We’ve seen this in his two previous jobs, as he ended up leaving Inter immediately after a euphoric scudetto win, due to the fact that he knew Inter were forced to sell many of their best players the following summer, for financial reasons. At Tottenham, things got even more ugly, as Conte was often outspoken about aspects of the club he was unhappy with, and even hinted at a potential resignation on multiple occasions. This is part of the reason why Conte has only had a job for over two years on one single occasion in his career. On that topic it is by all means notable that this job was at Juventus; the club Conte supported in his childhood; the club he would later achieve legendary status at as a player, and the club he enjoyed the most success at as a manager. Even then, the one time he stayed at a club for longer than two seasons, it wasn’t by much; he was only at Juventus for three seasons. Regardless of the reasons behind this trend, I see it as a deal-breaker for Milan, because they ideally need someone who they can rely on for years to come. Conte is not only not that, but his volatility, leverage, and even tactical inconsistencies are all even bigger red flags. On the latter note, yes, it should also be noted that Conte’s respective stints at Chelsea and Tottenham primarily ended due to poor results, despite how well those stints started. By the time Conte was relieved from these respective roles, it’s arguable that the respective clubs in questions were in about as bad of a position as they were when he was appointed. Even aside from all of this, another significant reason for Milan not to appoint Antonio Conte, is that he lives and dies by a three-back formation. This formation is not suitable to Milan given their current personnel, and there is no way around that. As a matter of fact, Milan just made some adjustments to their personnel last summer, in order to transition from a 4–2–3–1 to a 4–3–3. A transition to a 3–4–3, or a 3–5–2 next summer, would be a logistical nightmare. Simply put, Milan should not even consider hiring Antonio Conte next summer.
Raffaele Palladino:
Monza’s Raffaele Palladino is actually one of my favorite managers in the world right now. Nonetheless, if you’re familiar with him and have read the whole article up to this point, you might suspect that I’m not a huge fan of this potential appointment. And you would be right in that suspicion. As for Antonio Conte, his reliance on a three-back formation may have appeared to be one of the more minor reasons for why he wasn’t a good choice for Milan. However, that really says a lot about how bad of an option Conte is, because I think it is enough to make Raffaele Palladino nothing more than a good reserve option for Milan. On the financial side Palladino likely wouldn’t have excessive demands in terms of wages, and his contract also expires next summer, meaning Milan would not need to buy it out (this also applies to Conte, for what it’s worth). On top of that, I’m also a big fan of Palladino tactically, but it’s just not the right fit; Milan cannot change their personnel in their current situation.
With all of this being said, I’d still like to expand on my appreciation for Palladino. For more on this, I have written about him on multiple occasions on my old Instagram, which may offer more substance. Nonetheless, Palladino is still only 39, in the midst of his second season in charge of a professional team, and he has already showed tremendous promise. When Silvio Berlusconi & Adriano Galliani’s Monza were promoted to the Serie A for the first time in club history in 2022, it was followed up by a highly ambitious summer mercato. Expectations for Monza going into the 2022–23 season were therefore high, given they were a newly promoted side. Meanwhile, Palladino was in charge of the club’s Primavera (u19) side at the time, but not for long. Monza had a disastrous start to the 22–23 season, in which they were most likely the worst-performing team in all of Europe’s top five leagues. Sure enough, they had won just one point in six games, which was hardly much less than they deserved based on how they had performed. This highlighted that Monza’s squad was a lot more flawed than their ambitious mercato would have suggested, but nonetheless Palladino would then be appointed and would turn the season on its head. In his first game in charge, Palladino’s Monza beat Juventus, who they would beat again in the return match, and Monza slowly but surely solidified themselves as a bonafide mid table team throughout the season. Again, despite some ambitious signings for a newly promoted team, the squad was not at all at this level. Despite the relative lack of talent in the squad, Palladino did not just achieve great results with Monza, but would instil a style of play that could translate excellently at one of Italy’s top clubs. Monza’s high press, buildup structure, and the evidently proficient technical coaching of Palladino, are all highly impressive, and make him a very exciting name when you also consider the results he’s achieved with so little to work with. In terms of the attacking phase, Palladino is still unproven, as defensive solidity has largely been the backbone of Monza’s success since his arrival, but with the talent he’s had at his disposal this should not be held against him so far.
Going back to Milan, if there are no other options, I think Palladino would be a fine appointment, as his young coaching career has looked extremely promising so far. In this event, it’s not too farfetched to imagine that Palladino might be able to adapt to Milan’s personnel, moving away from his preferred 3–4–3, however this doesn’t seem ideal. Meanwhile, if Milan somehow find an efficient way of adapting to this formation, Palladino suddenly becomes an extremely attractive option, perhaps particularly due to the success of Simone Inzaghi, who also sets up with a three-back formation, and utilizes many similar tactical principles. With that being said, this is unlikely, especially given the personnel change Milan underwent just last summer. Perhaps another club will reap the benefits of having Palladino in charge instead.
Igor Tudor:
With Igor Tudor, the list of managers who utilize a three-back formation is concluded. Like Palladino, Tudor is not ideal for Milan for this reason, however he is an interesting reserve option. The managerial market is limited as it is, but in Milan’s case they’ll likely also need a manager who is either Italian, or who has notable experience playing and/or coaching in Italy. This is part of the reason why the likes of Palladino and Tudor should at least be on Milan’s shortlist, although definitely on the lower end of it.
As for Tudor, I’m a little lower on him tactically than I am on Palladino — especially in the long-term, as he’s older and more experienced. However, one of the main reasons why I think Tudor is a slightly better option for Milan than Palladino, is that I think he’s more likely to be able to adapt to a four-back formation. One of the main reasons for this is that Tudor was nearly appointed as Napoli’s new manager not too long ago, and their personnel is just about as suited to a 4–3–3 as Milan’s is. Instead, they moved away from Tudor as they couldn’t find an agreement on contract terms, and Napoli instead opted for… Walter Mazzarri, who famously also uses a three-back formation. Despite this, Mazzarri would adapt to Napoli’s personnel and utilize a 4–3–3 in his first three games in charge of Napoli, which strongly implies that Tudor would have done the same, if appointed. Then, as for how this would work out if he were to be appointed by Milan, I’m not overly optimistic, but consider Tudor a solid option; not ideal, but solid. It should be noted that Tudor is still quite inexperienced in the top five leagues, and in that period I don’t think he’s proven that he could take a club like Milan to the top and lead them for years to come. At Hellas Verona he turned the club’s season in more or less the same way Palladino turned Monza’s 22–23 season around (although with better players at his disposal), and then at Marseille the following season he didn’t overwhelm, but lived up to expectations. He’s an interesting name, also due to his tactical style, but especially given he prefers to play with three at the back I think he is kind of a lukewarm option in the grand scheme of things.
Graham Potter:
Graham Potter is definitely one of the most unorthodox options on this list, but given how limited the managerial market is I think he should be on Milan’s shortlist. Of course, Potter is not an obscure name or anything like that, but given how his most recent stint at Chelsea went, and given he’s English, he is a very bold option. It’s reductive to argue that Milan shouldn’t appoint Graham Potter because he’s English and doesn’t have any experience playing nor coaching in Italy, and that should be clarified. However, there probably is a reason why Serie A managers are almost all Italian, while those that aren’t have all previously played and/or coached in the country. Likely, the most simple explanation for it is that the cultural adaptation is very difficult, which is not to mention that communication. On top of this, of course the way Graham Potter’s most recent managerial stint went is also a red flag. On this note, I would like to take Potter in defense, but in regards to Milan I’m still not sure if I’m ready to disregard how Potter’s Chelsea stint went.
As for Potter’s tactical ability, I think he’s become severely underrated since things started going south for him at Chelsea. Given how poorly Thomas Tuchel did following such a strong start to his Chelsea career, I think it’s clear that the blame on Chelsea’s poor performances last season cannot be on the manager. Tuchel has since mostly been very good at Bayern München, and a disastrous run like the one he endured at Chelsea last season is completely unique in the context of his entire career. Clearly, the reasons for Chelsea’s struggles went beyond the tactics, and that obviously speaks in Potter’s favor as well. However, in regards to Milan, I think it’s appropriate to ask how such a good manager could fail so badly, if he also had talented players? The full answer is more complex, but it probably all begins with Chelsea’s change of ownership, as well as the subsequent disastrous recruitment. It was only after the club’s change of ownership that Chelsea were sent into a downward spiral, and Graham Potter was the one appointed to put an end to said spiral. However, with all the chaos in the club he was unsuccessful, and although this example is much more extreme than that of Milan’s current situation, there are some clear parallels. Most likely, Potter didn’t fail at Chelsea due to a lack of tactical competence, but an inability to handle a chaotic situation off the pitch. These are the kinds of managerial issues that are more complex to assess from the outside looking in, because we simply don’t have all the information, and therefore we tend to underestimate this aspect of management. However, we should not forget how much it can matter, and I think that’s important to keep in mind when assessing Potter as an option for Milan. A demoralized locker room, lackluster chemistry between the players, and profound pressure from the media and Milanisti — it’s something that Stefano Pioli, aside from his tactical shortcomings, is struggling to fight right now, and he’s an experienced coach who has lived in Italy all his life.
For me, Potter unfortunately just isn’t the right character for the Milan job, I don’t think. On the other hand, in terms of his managerial profile I think he’s nearly perfect for Milan. He has never been quite as tactically bold and innovative as often implied, but rather offers solidity with his compact mid block. Simultaneously he has proven to be much more proficient than someone like Pioli when it comes to buildup structure, coaching, and youth development. Ultimately his ceiling may have been overestimated, but a coach of his profile makes a lot of sense for Milan due to the high floor. A lot of other managers don’t offer the same stability that Graham Potter does. At worst, a Potter-managed team (barring external hindrances, such as at Chelsea) could be a bit stale in attack, which we even saw at Brighton to an extent. However, this is probably preferable to a manager plagued by defensive volatility, and perhaps also offensive inconsistency on top of that, for instance. Then again, I want to make it clear that Potter isn’t an ideal option for Milan due to his background, and it is rather his profile that is interesting. On top of that, there are simply better, more suitable options than Potter, which is also to say that if said options aren’t available, Potter suddenly becomes possibly the best option out there for Milan.
Roberto De Zerbi
Brighton’s Roberto De Zerbi concludes the list of wildcard managerial options for Milan next summer. He is however a very different option from everyone else who’s been mentioned so far. For those who aren’t aware, De Zerbi was born and raised in Brescia, one of the main major cities in Milano’s home region Lombardia. For one, Brescia are linked with Milan due to a longstanding gemellaggio between Brescia’s ultras and Milan’s ultras. More importantly, though, De Zerbi was in Milan’s youth sector when he was younger, and began his professional career at the club. In recent years, De Zerbi has speaken positively of Milan, and he has also confirmed that he intends to return to Italy one day. Naturally, De Zerbi to Milan has been a dream of many milanisti, and I would consider myself among those. The issue instead is that it just isn’t the most realistic idea in the short-term.
First of all, De Zerbi is yet to even spend one full season at Brighton, and while he will have spent a little less than two once Milan will be looking for a new manager, it’s still very likely that De Zerbi won’t feel ready to leave just yet. Even if he is open to a return to Italy, though, it will not be easy for Milan to acquire him. It has been reported that the release clause in De Zerbi’s contract is worth €13m, and that is on top of the fee that will likely be needed to terminate Pioli’s contract (“likely” because he could also resign), as well as De Zerbi’s wages, of course. For a manager as special as De Zerbi, you might just think this financial risk is worth it, and I don’t fully disagree. On the other hand, Milan’s previous management was not one which liked to take financial risks, and their new one isn’t either. Given how limited the managerial market is, I would personally seriously consider this move if De Zerbi were to be open to it. In fact, if Pioli were to resign at the end of the season, De Zerbi would be right up there with just about any other managerial option on the market. The argument for paying the release clause to bring in De Zerbi is simple: although Milan have some areas to reinforce in their squad next summer, this is not their biggest issue, but rather the manager, and the best signing they can make is a potentially world class manager who they can rely on for years to come. However, I doubt Giorgio Furlani has this perspective, and I want to stress that this move feels extremely unlikely given Milan’s consistent financial conservatism in recent years, which is the foundation of their current financial situation, in fairness.
I love Roberto De Zerbi and he is one of my very favorite managers in football right now, but I also have to point out that the financial risk of this appointment is amplified by some of his tactical struggles. As mentioned before, Graham Potter’s managerial profile attracts because it would help with tactical and individual development while also bringing immense stability to the team. Someone like Roberto De Zerbi instead has a sky high ceiling, but also a low floor, and we’ve seen many times that talented managers tend to end up in a downward spiral when they struggle, and it often ends in them losing their job, as opposed to them turning it all around. If that’s the worst case scenario of such a financially aggressive decision, you can understand the apprehension towards it.
As for how this could be the case for De Zerbi, we’ve partly seen this at Brighton. Although I think the subject of how good De Zerbi really is is another topic for another day, I think it’s appropriate to bring up some of his strengths and weaknesses, with some nuance inevitably missing. What makes De Zerbi so special is his technical coaching, his unconditional intention to build from the back, the quality of his buildup, and the offensive proficiency of his teams. De Zerbi could very well be a revolutionary tactician in football, and has received extremely high praise from none other than Pep Guardiola on numerous occasions. On the other hand, especially this season we have seen a frustrating lack of pragmatism from De Zerbi, and that has to be seen as a significant flaw at the moment. Brighton have regressed on paper since last season, but teams have also begun to adapt to Brighton’s style of play. The result is not only a regression in the team’s previously profoundly explosive attack, but also increased defensive vulnerability. Despite this, we have seen minimal adjustments from De Zerbi to try to combat arising issues. It is clear that De Zerbi takes a lot of pride in his tactical philosophy, and it can by all means be sensitive for him to compromise that in an attempt to improve results. However, it’s completely fair to argue that this is what is holding De Zerbi back from being one of the best managers in the world at the moment. The top managers can adapt, make compromises, and optimize their tactics depending on the situation they’re in, and so far De Zerbi has not done this. On top of this, De Zerbi has proven to be an extraordinary floor raiser, but what happens when he takes over a team that is expected to compete? A team that regularly has to break down low blocks? In this department, De Zerbi is also unproven.
All of this is to say Roberto De Zerbi is not necessarily a home run of an appointment, but rather offers an enormous potential. Simultaneously he’s also a very good fit for Milan due to the needs for technical coaching, individual development, and tactical growth, as well as De Zerbi’s age and background. But is it worth it? Me personally, I’d really struggle to turn De Zerbi down if Pioli resigns at the end of the season, but more importantly I really struggle to see Milan appointing De Zerbi, which is why I consider him more of a wildcard option.
Ignazio Abate:
Milan Primavera coach Ignazio Abate may appear to be more of a wildcard option for Milan, but for me he should easily be one of the top contenders for the job. In my eyes, the ideal time to appoint Abate would be in 2025, rather than 2024, but that is not to imply that he won’t be ready to make the transition to professional football in 2024, even if the expectations are high; it’s just a little earlier than ideal.
As for the work Abate has done with the Primavera so far, it is extremely impressive. Last season was his first season with the team, and while the team struggled in the league, this was in the midst of a transitioning period for the Primavera, and still an improvement upon results in previous years, in which the results were shocking. More notably, the Primavera reached the semi finals of the UEFA Youth League, where they were unlucky to lose to Hajduk Split. With some changes to the team and many players having grown, this season has been a breakout season for Abate and his Primavera, which should make him a serious option for the first team in the future. In the league, the team is currently trailing first-placed Inter by three points, and has impressed, but this pales in comparison to their performances in the Youth League. Against very fierce competition, in the form of PSG, Dortmund, and Newcastle, Milan have dominated the group stages of the Youth League so far. An unlucky loss to PSG has been the only stain on their campaign after five games, and the final fixture should be the second easiest of the group stages (Newcastle away). Dortmund and PSG are among the elite in Europe when it comes to youth sectors nowadays, with Newcastle’s youth sector also having improved following their change of ownership. Milan, in contrast, has struggled with their youth sector historically, and although the prospects have improved in recent times, Abate’s performances on a continental scale are truly a statement.
With this in mind, Milan’s dominance against these teams is not only a sign of their youth sector finally heading in the right direction, but also of Ignazio Abate’s tactical prowess. About Abate’s tactics, something that stands out is that he’s very complete and versatile, and cannot be put in a box. This is definitely encouraging, highlighting a healthy mix of progressive ideas and pragmatism, and if you want to read about Abate’s tactics (and Milan’s youth sector in general), I strongly recommend this Twitter account. However, Abate’s specific tactical principles aren’t ultimately what makes him such an interesting option for Milan. There’s a good chance they would translate well to the professional game, there’s a good chance they will improve with experience, and Abate’s results quite simply speak for themselves. However, Abate isn’t some tactical prodigy, and that isn’t the appeal of him as a managerial option. It should be noted that although it’s more common for managers in the top leagues to have started off at the professional level, some managers transition from youth football to professional football, sometimes beginning with a big job, which has proven to be a risk worth taking on numerous occasions. Fabio Capello is a very notable example historically, but in more recent times Simone Inzaghi, Andrea Pirlo (his managerial season at Juve was very good, but this is another topic for another day), and of course Raffaele Palladino. These examples indicate that Abate can have success even at the highest level, but the main reason why he’s such a good option is actually that he’s practical, and that is for multiple reasons. In fairness, this may actually be one of the reasons why many managers have had success when they’ve transitioned directly from a club’s youth team to its first team.
Milan don’t want another Frank Lampard (a former player at the club who failed due to managerial incompetence), in Abate, but his extensive experience at Milan as a player, and subsequent understanding of the club, is definitely a positive factor. If that were the only thing he offered, I wouldn’t consider him, but it isn’t, which means this aspect needs to be highlighted. Most importantly, it would be crucial in what would be a seamless integration process for Abate, which can be more important than it seems on the surface. Abate first came to Milan in 1999, at the age of 13, and he ranks 28th in all-time appearances for Milan (via Transfermarkt). That is to say, this is the kind of character you ideally want as your manager, although this aspect is not the end-all be-all. On top of this, Abate is the one manager — aside from Pioli, ha — whose availability will be a certainty to Milan next summer, which is a logistical upside. If the few preferable options aren’t available, Milan know for a fact they can get Abate. On top of that, following what could be a termination of Pioli’s contract, Abate’s presumably generous wage demands — relatively speaking — would be highly beneficial.
To instead focus more on the football side of things, and less on the more intangible aspects, Abate would also be a huge asset when it comes to youth development, as a new generation of youngsters is approaching. Not only has his experience at the youth level (Abate also worked with the u16 team in 2021 — 22 and was greatly successful) naturally made him a coach who excels at helping young players grow, which could transition into the first team, but perhaps more importantly his relationship with his current players will be fundamental to their continued growth. Relatively speaking, a golden generation in Milan’s youth sector is approaching, and who better to help integrate these players into the first team than Ignazio Abate?
When it comes to the intangibles of a manager, I can’t imagine there’s a single option that beats out Ignazio Abate for Milan. On top of that the appointment of Abate would be logistically seamless, and financially beneficial. Then the question becomes how good he is tactically — relative to the professional game — and that is still hard to determine. Clearly he is doing well with the Primavera so far, but two seasons of experience is a little thin given the type of manager Milan are in need of. Certainly, there are better, more proven tacticians named in this article, and while Abate’s young age of 37 could be an argument for him being likely to improve in this regard, it could also be an argument for him being unprepared to take over the first team. With that being said, Abate’s results with the Primavera so far cannot be dismissed, it’s just that I’m not sure if it’s good enough for Milan right now, considering the position they are in. If Milan were in a much more vulnerable position, and were ready to start a new project from scratch, I think Abate would be an extremely interesting option. However, the current situation is that Milan are massively underperforming due to their lack of a competent manager and tactician, so a project appointment is not ideal… but Abate should still be in strong consideration by Milan next summer.
Vincenzo Italiano:
Vincenzo Italiano is one of those names that I would be shocked not to see linked to Milan next summer. In recent years he has largely stood out as one of Italy’s most promising managers, and his contract expires next summer. With that being said, Fiorentina’s struggles have essentially only worsened over time since Italiano’s arrival in 2021, and it’s very possible that Italiano will be coming off a really poor season come next summer. Would Milan be willing to appoint a manager who’s struggled in recent times? Vincenzo Italiano has been one of my very favorite managers in the world in this period, but even then I can recognize that his stint at Fiorentina has been bumpy, and he wouldn’t be an entirely safe appointment.
Once again, this article is not the best time for a nuanced, expansive analysis of these managers (this also isn’t my area of expertise anyway), as it would simply be too long, but I think something has to be said about Italiano’s rocky time at Fiorentina. Describing Italiano’s time at Fiorentina as a “struggle” is probably unfair and/or inaccurate. At the very least, it’s not a very nuanced description. In Italiano’s first season at the club he led them to a seventh place finish, in his second season he led them to an eight place finish and two cup finals, and right now Fiorentina are sixth in the Serie A. This is all despite Fiorentina finishing 13th the season prior to Italiano’s appointment. However, I maintain that Fiorentina have only gotten worse since their first season under Italiano. They’ve struggled to control games, they’ve been awfully inconsistent and unpredictable, they’ve been more vulnerable defensively, and they’ve been less explosive going forward. As for last season, it’s hard to concisely exemplify this, but regarding this season it has to be clarified that Fiorentina have NOT been the eighth best team in the Serie A whatsoever. Fiorentina are ranked 11th in expected points according to Understat, and rank eighth in xG, 13th in xGA, and 11th in xGD according to FBref. Of course there is missing context from these stats, but especially when you consider how Fiorentina used to fare in these statistics a couple seasons ago, I think they indicate that this team is not exactly living up to expectations.
So, why have Fiorentina been disappointing since Italiano’s debut season at the club? A part of it could be that the success of the first season was a significant over-performance, not necessarily in terms of results, but rather talent, which was unsustainable. The departure of Dušan Vlahović could also have contributed, as his absence wasn’t felt immediately, but it would be surprising if his departure were to not hurt La Viola in the long run. Since his departure Fiorentina have struggled to find a reliable striker, and with that I suppose offensive regression is inevitable. As for the defensive regression, it should perhaps not come as a surprise when Fiorentina’s most utilized midfielders in Serie A this season have been Giacomo Bonaventura, Arthur Melo, Alfred Duncan, and Rolando Mandragora. It should be said that Fiorentina really aren’t as strong on paper as they may seem due to the size of their club, and where they’ve finished in the Serie A table in recent seasons. With all of this being said, I think the lack of effective pragmatism from Italiano since 2021–22 has been disappointing, and on top of that what initially made him such an interesting manager was largely that he regularly defied the odds. It’s important to bring up that Italiano also landed the Fiorentina job after having led Spezia to promotion to Serie A for the first time in club history in 2019–20, before helping them stay up quite comfortably the following season. Not only is his style of play intriguing, but his ability to exceed expectations in terms of both results and performances, has arguably been even more intriguing. Since 2021–22, this has rarely been the case, and Fiorentina have looked increasingly pedestrian. Italiano is no longer exceeding expectations, in fact this season he’s failing to even live up to them. It’s hard to argue that teams like Bologna, Udinese, Monza, Torino, and Genoa are much less imperfect on paper, despite having all performed at least on the same level this season, in my opinion.
These increased adversities for Italiano do lower his stocks compared to 2022, but they should by no means be a deal-breaker for Milan. The struggles at Fiorentina imply that Italiano may not be a home run of an appointment, and that it comes with a risk, but struggles are not unheard of even for some of the best managers. Roberto De Zerbi exemplifies this, for one, but I would argue someone like Mikel Arteta exemplifies this even more. His ideas were always interesting, but for a long time we didn’t see these ideas lead to particularly good performances, largely due to issues with the squad. On that note it should be said that Milan also don’t have a perfect squad, and the prospect of appointing a manager who could minimize the impact of the holes in the squad is tantalizing, but it shouldn’t be seen as a necessity. What Italiano unequivocally has, are interesting ideas, and it goes without saying that he would achieve better results with Milan than he has at Fiorentina, given how much better Milan’s squad is. Additionally, while I was very critical of the issues Milan chose to address in the most recent summer mercato, it should be said that these will likely at least be addressed next summer, and at that point there will no longer be the same holes in the squad as there are now. Instead, there may be an undesirable level of immediate quality in some positions, as opposed to a 37-year old Olivier Giroud essentially being the only striker option (sorry Oli).
Aside from how he’s exceeded expectations on numerous occasions in the past, Italiano has proven to be a great technical coach (crucial for Milan), and prefers a modern, exciting style of play that is in great contrast to that of Stefano Pioli. I think Italiano will be one of the favorites to take the Milan job next summer, but again, while I am- and have been a huge fan of him, I still don’t see this appointment as a guaranteed success. Certainly there are more safe options out there, and the way Italiano has dealed with adversities since the start of last season has not been ideal in my opinion. With that being said, there is a lot of potential in Italiano at Milan, and I would be happy with this appointment.
Thiago Motta:
My opinion on Thiago Motta has changed over time like with few other managers. For a while, I had created a certain narrative around Thiago Motta, and the following snippet of an Instagram post from December last year summarizes it fairly well:
“Thiago Motta certainly felt like a player who could go on to become a spectacular manager, and early on in his managerial career he received lots of attention, but since then a few years have passed and Thiago Motta is yet to impress much. He failed at Genoa, he helped Spezia stay in Serie A last season, although they were extremely fortunate to do so, and Bologna have been a mixed bag since his arrival. On the other hand, Bologna have gotten better and better since they appointed Thiago Motta, and with a more talented squad he could eventually display some tactical brilliance”.
When I went back to find this quote, I was actually somewhat surprised because I thought I would had been more critical of Motta. As last season went on, Bologna’s results may have improved remarkably, but their performances only got worse, and thus I remember being quite a harsh critic of Motta for a while. Up until this season I was largely unimpressed by Motta’s work at Bologna, but in this quote I actually anticipated the breakout season he has gone on to have this season, with a more talented squad. Bologna’s performances have improved drastically, and suddenly I’m much more understanding of the Motta-hype. As a matter of fact, he is probably my favorite financially safe managerial option for Milan next summer.
As a technical coach, and when it has come to possession-based principles, Motta has actually impressed ever since his arrival at Bologna. He has perhaps not been on the same level as the likes of Palladino and Italiano, but the way he’s made a team like Bologna act in possession has been impressive nonetheless, and as the overall performances have fallen into place, Motta has suddenly become a much more interesting manager in my eyes. This Bologna team is not scared to keep the ball no matter who they play, and while they have been somewhat inconsistent in their ability to control games with the ball, they definitely stand out overall. Against Torino they struggled to retain the ball and played it long too many times, but against Fiorentina, Inter, and Milan, this was not the case. With all of this being said, Bologna don’t keep the ball for the mere sake of it, in fact they are not necessarily committed to keeping it at all. Instead, it is Motta’s buildup that stands out, and this is exemplified by the game against Inter, in which Bologna played their way out of Inter’s press multiple times, but only ended up with 37% possession. In case you don’t know, Bologna also ended up drawing that game 2–2 despite going down 2–0 within the first 13 minutes. While many have become obsessed with possession numbers as an indicator of game control, I actually think the way Motta handled this game was really impressive, and what it highlights is his pragmatism, a trait which should not be overlooked.
This season Motta has proven to be a highly effective tactician, who’s been able to optimize the performances of his team, while also incorporating tactical principles that make him suitable for a big club. Last season, he incorporated many of these principles too, but the difference was that the team wasn’t effective at all on the pitch, ironically enough. Even more ironic is the fact that the results went his way, and thus the season was deemed a success from Motta’s perspective. To get a basic grasp of Bologna’s effectiveness under Motta this season, we can look at some xG numbers. First of all, Bologna only rank 10th in xG, but we will get to this later. Where they impress, on the other hand, is defensively, as they rank sixth in the league in xGA, just 1.6 xG away from third placed Atalanta, who have a game in hand as of the writing of this article. In terms of xGD Bologna rank sixth, just 0.2 xG behind Milan, while ranking above Lazio, Palladino’s Monza, and Italiano’s Fiorentina (via FBref).
The numbers above are obviously very impressive considering Motta is coaching Bologna, but I want to emphasize one stat in particular: the expected goals against. You ever heard the saying “defense wins championships”? It’s a cliché, it’s a little bit corny, and it’s not necessarily true… but sometimes it is. Juventus is arguably the biggest club in Italy, and Massimiliano Allegri is a very accomplished manager, but the truth is that Juventus probably have the fourth best squad in the league at best, and Allegri is also a very outdated tactician. Despite this, Juventus are so far a legitimate scudetto contender so far this season, even though they’re up against an electrifying, exciting Inter side. They don’t even rank above Inter in terms of xGA (in fact they’re tied at 9.3), and there is no denying that Inter are a better team, but the gap in terms of level of performances so far this season is not significant. This has largely been on the back of Juve’s fantastic defensive performances; they rank second in the league in xGA. So, I’m not sure if I believe in the idea that every club has its own sporting identity, and that it needs to stick to it… but the idea of Milan going back to being a team whose success is largely predicated on defensive solidity is exciting, especially in a modernized form. Motta is not a manager who wants all his players to sit behind the ball, but has rather achieved defensive solidity through more progressive tactics. Despite his more modern style of play, Motta’s success with Bologna this season has mostly been the result of defensive solidity, and this could very well be something that we could see become more prominent in coming years. In fact, there are already signs of this. For instance, Napoli may have scored a lot of goals last season, but their attack was never quite as dangerous as it would appear, for one, but would also regress as the season went on. Napoli’s 64.7 xG in Serie A last season is a very unimpressive figure, but despite their style of play their supreme defensive solidity ensured that they would cruise to a scudetto nonetheless. This season, we’ve also seen something similar from Arsenal, who have been uninspiring in the final third, leading to a lot of negative discourse around the team. And yet, they’re still top of the league after 14 match-days. The key stat? They rank first in xGA. Are we seeing defensive football come back in new form? Could be.
Certainly, there is something very assuring about a manager who ensures defensive solidity, and Thiago Motta seems to fit that description despite being more of a possession-based manager. But then, of course, the elephant in the room is the offensive phase. This is the downside of this appointment, and that cannot be denied, but while I’m not sure if a Motta-managed side will ever excel in attack — unlike Simone Inzaghi’s Inter, for instance — I don’t think this is a deal-breaker at all. In fact, given what Motta has to work with at Bologna, 10th in xG is rather impressive. Going through the players who commonly feature in Bologna’s front four, there’s Joshua Zirkzee, Dan Ndoye, Lewis Ferguson, Alexis Saelemaekers, Jesper Karlsson, and Riccardo Orsolini. While there is some upside in Karlsson, Zirkzee and Orsolini, none of them are exceptional attacking players, while Saelemaekers and Ndoye can even be seen as liabilities in the final third. That is to say, with players like Rafael Leão, Christian Pulisic, Samuel Chukwueze, Noah Okafor, and hopefully a reliable striker, Motta could see much more success in the final third at Milan. Additionally, going back to the topic of defensive solidity potentially leading to success, we’ve seen many of these defensively solid teams succeed not only because of their defensive solidity, but because of individual brilliance in the final third. When you have great players, perhaps you can get away with some structural shortcomings in the final third. If Motta were to be the next Milan manager, this could certainly be the case.
All in all, I think Thiago Motta is an extremely interesting option for Milan, and although defensive teams are almost inherently the exact opposite, the idea of an extremely defensively solid Milan excites me. Again, under Motta this would be a different brand of defensive football compared to the days of catenaccio. While many of Milan’s players have suffered due to ineffective possession-based structures and inadequate technical coaching under Pioli, this would likely not be the case under Motta. He may be my favorite overall option, not only due to his tactical identity, but also because he *should* be a logistically simple appointment. On the other hand, the latter is no guarantee. Bologna and Motta have been in active discussions over a contract extension for months now, and it is hard to determine if an agreement will be found. Hopefully for Milan, Motta is waiting to see which opportunities there will be after this season, in which a chance to lead Milan into the future would likely be intriguing. However, this is no guarantee and there is a possibility that Motta will not be available next summer. Even then, though, there is a manager who I like even more. The question is if Milan will get their hands on him.
Francesco Farioli:
If Milan are serious about putting their sporting project back on track, appointing Francesco Farioli next summer is the way to go, as long as it is financially and logistically viable. He would not be the most financially simple appointment, but you would have to see it as an investment. In my eyes, Milan already have the squad — which is not to imply that it is perfect, but that its overall level is by all means acceptable. The most important signing next summer will not be a striker, a midfielder, or a right-back, but rather a new manager, in order to get the most out of said squad. Buying out Farioli’s contract after having terminated Pioli’s contract would be expensive, but otherwise Milan could have to settle for an option with a worryingly low floor or ceiling. A club of Milan’s stature cannot settle, especially given their current situation, with an excellent- and gradually improving financial situation, and a squad that’s ready to compete under the right manager. From a financial perspective, the probable difference in results under Farioli and any of the other managers brought up so far — respectively — should more than make up for the financial “risk” in swapping Pioli for Farioli, especially in the long-term.
When we’re talking about a manager like Ignazio Abate, we’re talking about a promising tactician with good intangibles. When we’re talking about Vincenzo Italiano, we’re talking about someone who’s shown amazing tactical tendencies, but who has simultaneously endured some concerning lows in recent years. Francesco Farioli, on the other hand, is on a completely different level. He might very well already be one of the best managers in Europe, and he’s still only 34 years old. The gap between him and the next-best option is significant, and when it comes to a club like Milan this cannot be ignored. I’m a huge fan of Roberto De Zerbi, but amidst Nice having being one of three unbeaten teams in the big five leagues up until this past weekend, while Brighton are struggling, I’m starting to think Farioli might just be the superior manager between the two. What I love about Farioli is how complete of a tactician he is, and that is in contrast to De Zerbi, despite Farioli being his protégé. You want another example of a team that has been successful on the back of defensive solidity this season? Francesco Farioli’s Nice, which ranks first in xGA in Ligue 1 (via FBref), and just barely behind PSG in terms of points. I like Thiago Motta as an option, I really do, but everything that’s been said about defensive solidity so far applies even more to Farioli, and this is not to mention his general tactical ideas. A student of De Zerbi, Farioli simply has a much higher ceiling than someone like Thiago Motta. Farioli has already been profoundly impressive at Nice, and yet he’s only 34 (!) years old. Some have questioned how influenced Farioli really is by De Zerbi, in light of Nice’s defensive solidity and relative lack of possession compared to De Zerbi’s Brighton. However, the main thing this highlights is Farioli’s pragmatism — in contrast to De Zerbi, again. Farioli has set his Nice side up in the way he think will optimize their performances, and when you look at how Nice have played this season, it is partly a reflection of what Farioli has to work with. Not only has his pressing proven to be phenomenal, judging by Nice’s defensive record, but Farioli’s possession-based principles are also extremely exciting, and at Milan we could see Farioli lead a completely different team from his Nice.
Francesco Farioli is already one of the better managers in the world, and he has the potential to be thee best one day. We’re talking about Milan here, and while managers like Italiano, Motta, and Abate would be nice fits for this team, Francesco Farioli could be life-changing. I’m not going to get too ahead of myself, but despite being financially limited by the Serie A, this is an appointment that could easily allow Milan to compete with any team in the world in the future, and how valuable is that? Certainly, I don’t think the few millions of Euros that Milan would keep if they were to go with someone else, are more valuable. The question then becomes how viable this operation would be, and aside from the financial risk of a contract buyout, potential competition from other clubs, and reluctance from Farioli to leave Nice after just one season, are two potential obstacles that are out of Milan’s control. Nonetheless, my take is that Milan should buy out Francesco Farioli’s contract if they can. Like I said, I like Abate, I like Italiano, and I like Thiago Motta, but the things Francesco Farioli could do for this club in the long-term are hard to put words to. The future of Italian football could still be Milan’s, but it’s up to the new regime to make this a reality.
