As I’m writing this, Milan seem to be on the verge of appointing Julen Lopetegui as their next head coach. This article is not an analysis of that decision. This article will not put words to the emotions that the derby last Monday evoked either. I will say one thing about Julen Lopetegui… actually, I would try to say something witty, but I’ll just get to the point instead: as is widely agreed upon, hiring him is a very bad decision. However, although Milan—one of the things I love the most in life—has put me through immense pain as a supporter over the past two years, I don’t feel particularly upset at the moment. Instead, I feel indifferent and more so disengaged. One reason why is that what Milan should have done (as opposed to hiring Lopetegui) is something they already failed at a while ago—there are a lot of things they should have done over the past two years, but what I’m referring to here is that they should have made it their priority to make Thiago Motta the next Milan head coach. Now it’s too late as he is set to become Juventus’ next head coach, and that is something that I have already grieved over. More importantly, though, the real reason why I’m not particularly upset might surprise you. If it does, you don’t understand AC Milan.
The sun will shine on us again
“Non è vero che dopo Istanbul, c’è sempre Atene”; “It’s not true that after Istanbul, there is always “Athens”, is the premise of an article that I read the other day. It is inspired by the lost derby against Inter (which one of them, right?) as well as Milan’s current situation, and it is probably the best piece I’ve ever read about Milan. What the quote above is referring to, are Milan’s two most recent Champions League finals. The one in 2005, which famously took place in Istanbul, remains arguably the darkest moment in the history of the club, as Milan ultimately lost to Liverpool despite leading by 3–0 at half-time. However, one strong argument against this being the darkest moment in the history of the club, is that Milan would face Liverpool again in 2007—not too far away from Istanbul: in Athens, and here Milan would be victorious instead. So, “after Istanbul [2005], there is always Athens [2007]” has become a popular saying in Milan circles; “there is light at the end of the tunnel”; “after rain comes sunshine.” However, as the article points out, this saying is not necessarily applicable to the current situation of the club. The article brilliantly describes why the Stefano Pioli-era at Milan has been a disappointment, or rather—quite frankly—riddled with darkness. So, I will not go through the Pioli-era with my own words, however the fact that the era has ultimately been negative is important to emphasize. Additionally, the fact that the culmination of this dark era was the recent derby against Inter is important as well, because it could be seen as another “Istanbul”. After all, it was an incredibly dark moment for the club, but it also occurred right towards the end of the Pioli-era. So, what awaits is naturally “Athens” then, right? Again, as the article emphasizes, the answer is “not necessarily”, and now that we’ve learned about the seemingly imminent appointment of Julen Lopetegui, the answer has changed to “almost certainly not”. In fact, the article even touches on how it’s not exactly accurate to depict the most recent derby loss as “Istanbul”, because there only ever was one actual “Istanbul”, whereas the Pioli-era has consisted of plenty of “Istanbul”-esque moments—and with Lopetegui set to become the next head coach of Milan, we can only assume that more are set to come.
As a supporter of Milan, I can firmly say that the last two years alone have largely been consumed by anger, apathy and sadness for me. However, while I agree with everything from the article I’ve referenced, I don’t necessarily think it’s true that… it isn’t true that “after Istanbul, there is always Athens.” The boring reason why is that football is plagued by a power structure that ensures that the most historically powerful clubs almost always rediscover success after a difficult period; they almost always find a way back to the top. However, to find the real, specific reason we have to inspect the situation Milan are in, as it is precisely this that I think people fail to understand. I think the problem is that people look back upon the past two years and see a team that has not been enjoyable to watch; hasn’t competed for trophies; has consistently and almost exclusively been dominated when it has faced its biggest rivals. Furthermore, people consider Stefano Pioli to be the biggest problem, but not the only one. It’s here that I begin to disagree, and I think the fundamental question might be the following: what do you envision would have happened over the last two years if Stefano Pioli had not been the head coach? The most common notion seems to be that the team simply wasn’t good enough, and that moving on from Stefano Pioli would be a necessary step in the right direction. However, I think that the issue has been that Milan have had the players to compete—if not win—and to play an entirely different brand of football. What I’m getting at is this: Stefano Pioli was not the face of a mediocre Milan-era, but a liability that has prevented the club from reaching its potential. This is the key: the issue with the Pioli-era has not been the lack of tangible success as much as it has been the wasted potential. Milan haven’t just had all remaining conditions to compete, they haven’t just had all remaining conditions to win; they’ve had all remaining conditions to dominate Italian football, at least in the long-term.
For me, Milan have had the players to not necessarily win every trophy there is to win, but to at least compete– and—perhaps more importantly—grow over time. Look at a player like Charles De Ketelaere, who was a huge talent when he arrived, but then he flopped massively. Yes, he failed to score a single goal at the club before leaving after just one season, but let’s not forget that he was only 21 when he arrived. What does that mean? Well, it means that he was in a crucial development stage in which he was meant to grow when he arrived, but he ultimately did not; not only did he not make a satisfying impact on the pitch (to say the least), but he also didn’t grow as a player during his time at the club. In that sense, he is a microcosm of the last two years of Pioli’s Milan; they haven’t just failed to win or even compete for trophies, but have also not made any progress as a team. With the right coach, everything would instead point forward: young players would grow and thereby make the team stronger, the results would improve due to the coach being more competent all across the board, and more importantly Milan’s financial situation would ensure that any issues with the quality of the team could be resolved on the transfer market. The final point here is crucial. There is this notion that Milan are struggling financially because the club doesn’t spend as much as clubs in the Premier League, but this is a wild misunderstanding. Milan are thriving financially. They are not just in a good position now, but are improving year by year. This year should see a slight halt to this upwards trend, largely due to weaker performances on the European stage, however it is still notable that last year was the first time Milan had made a net profit since 2006; a clear sign of progress. Milan are largely in this position thanks to the contributions of the club’s old ownership and regime, but—in fairness—not much should change on the financial front with the current ownership… and regime, I guess. Gerry Cardinale, the CEO of Milan owners RedBird Capital, has repeatedly emphasized the importance of economic sustainability, and as a matter of fact it’s possible that his focus on this department will be even greater compared to the prior ownership. Aside from this, another sign of Milan’s financial situation is their net spend compared to the other teams in Italy—it may not be high compared to clubs in England, but relative to the Serie A it is. Perhaps it’s been hard to notice this disparity as Milan’s total expenditure has not been as supreme as the net spend, in fact they rank below Juventus in this category (via Transfermarkt). However, this has largely been the result of Milan having lacked valuable assets to sell, which is currently beginning to change. In any case, the net spend is significant, and in the graphic below you can see the Serie A clubs by net spend since 2021–22.n
Here, another crucial point arises. First of all, Milan are doing well financially for an Italian club, which is what allows them to have such a high net spend, but what is also important is how they compare to their main rivals: Inter and Juventus. Well, you can see a clear disparity in terms of net spend, and sure enough it is well-documented that these three clubs are not doing as well as each other financially. There is no reason to break this down in depth in this article, but you can read this, this and this if you’re interested in Juve’s financial difficulties, and you can read this if you’re interested in Inter’s financial difficulties. Again, this point is crucial. As mentioned, Milan already have a great squad which can be competitive with the right coach, and which will improve with player development and investments in the transfer market. Perhaps even more importantly though, Milan’s financial situation allows the club to potentially improve more than its rivals thanks to more sizeable investments. However, even more important than that is the fact that Milan are projected to continue to improve financially in the coming years, whereas Juventus and Inter are still struggling. Perhaps Inter is the club to focus on here, because for one they are Milan’s biggest rivals, but beyond that they are also the champions of Italy; the team to beat for Milan, if they want to achieve success. However, Inter’s financial situation is seemingly more severe than not just that of Milan, but also that of Juventus. On top of that, Inter are among the top four oldest teams—weighed by playing time rather than being based on the average age of the squad—in the top five leagues this season (via FBref). This is not an issue you want to have amidst financial difficulties, and therefore I view Inter’s future as being quite bleak. Meanwhile, Juventus are also in a notably worse financial situation compared to Milan, while simultaneously having a weaker squad on top of that. Now, with that aside, another condition for Milan to be successful in the coming years is their youth sector, which is rapidly making progress as more care has been put into it in recent years. This is exemplified by:
- Milan Primavera having qualified to the semi-finals of the UEFA Youth League last year– and qualified to the final this year.
- The increase in youth prospects given a chance in the first team, even as the team’s standards has improved from the overwhelming majority of the 2010’s.
- The imminent establishment of a u23 team that will play in Serie C—inspired by Atalanta and (above all) Juventus.
So, what is this all to say? Well, unless Julen Lopetegui exceeds expectations considerably, “Athens” is not waiting for Milan… well, at least not in the foreseeable future, and this is my point. What are Milan’s current conditions for long-term success? A great financial situation—possibly in contrast to their rivals; a great squad that is only set to improve; a thriving youth sector. However, something is missing. Even if Julen Lopetegui ends up doing a good job of developing players and changes the team’s brand of football, his track record suggests that he just isn’t good enough. He isn’t as good in either of the areas I just mentioned as you’d like him to be, and tactically he isn’t strong enough to lead Milan to success at the expense of Inzaghi’s Inter and Motta’s Juventus. In fact, the issue with Milan’s managerial recruitment process has not just been the fact that the club seems set to hire a mediocre coach. Rather, Milan not acquiring Motta saw them stabbed by a double-edged sword; Motta was not just the supreme option to replace Stefano Pioli, but Milan also “allowed” him to take over as Juve’s head coach, meaning they have suddenly leapfrogged Milan in the long-term. All of this is what speaks in favor of Milan experiencing yet another “Istanbul” (if not multiple) before they experience another “Athens”. Until further notice, AC Milan will not be a successful football club… but the question is: how long will this last? This is what is making me feel conflicted as a supporter. Yes, I have been devastated by the failure– and wasted potential of the last two years, and I am also stunned by the fact that the club’s sporting potential looks set to continue to be wasted over the coming years. However, if we look at the conditions for success for Milan, all that is really missing is the coach… except, well, not quite. First of all, the lack of competition is questionable, as Juventus’ direction should change once they hire Thiago Motta, as mentioned. Beyond that, though, Milan’s problem is not necessarily the coach, but is rather a lot deeper than that.
Why is Milan not competing? Why are their players not developing? Why have they lost a thousand derbies in a row? The direct answer is that it’s because of the coach, but if similar questions remain even after Milan have hired a new coach, the answer suddenly changes. At that point, Milan’s lack of success is no longer directly the fault of the caoch, but rather the fault of whoever made the decision to hire the coach in the first place. It is the fault of Gerry Cardinale (CEO of Milan owners RedBird Capital), Giorgio Furlani (Milan’s CEO), Geoffrey Moncada (Milan’s de-facto sporting director) and Zlatan Ibrahimović (I don’t know what he is, but he is involved and he is complicit). Who decided to fire Paolo Maldini—by far Milan’s greatest player of all time, and one of two architects of the club’s recent rise from the ashes; the other being Maldini’s partner, Ricky Massara, who also lost his job? Gerry Cardinale. Who subsequently decided to confirm Stefano Pioli’s position as head coach of the first team? Gerry Cardinale. Who was behind the clusterfuck that was Milan’s most recent summer mercato (read this for more details, the profanity is justified)? Geoffrey Moncada and Giorgio Furlani. Who had previously decided Giorgio Furlani should be more involved in the club’s sporting direction, while Geoffrey Moncada should be the de-facto sporting director? Gerry Cardinale. Who made no serious effort to convince Thiago Motta to become the next Milan head coach, instead identifying Julen Lopetegui as the top candidate later on? As far as we know, it was Gerry Cardinale, Giorgio Furlani, Geoffrey Moncada and Zlatan Ibrahimović in a combined effort. Who decided to hire Zlatan Ibrahimović in a managerial role following his retirement as a player? Gerry Cardinale. So, Stefano Pioli’s coaching has prevented Milan from reaching its potential, and Julen Lopetegui will continue to do so if he is hired, but neither of them are the root of the problem here. Giorgio Furlani and Geoffrey Moncada are further up in the food chain, but while their recruitment and squad-planning have left a lot to be desired, there is one man even further up in the food chain. That man is Gerry Cardinale, who can be considered the owner of the club. In fairness, there is some nuance to his influence on the club as he has made the right call of moving on from Pioli even though he has a year left on his contract, first of all. On top of that, Cardinale will likely ensure that Milan continue to head in the right direction financially—especially as he has been working hard on the project of the new stadium, on which he has made progress. Nonetheless, for Milan to reach its potential, Cardinale either needs to right his wrongs, or Milan need a change of ownership. However, when that moment arrives, everything should change. In terms of the squad, the youth sector and the financial situation, Milan are in a great position, and it’s hard to see that changing for the worse in the future. So, to complement this, Milan do not merely need a coach who can maximize the results and help the players grow. Instead, what they need is sporting competence. The very moment they get that, “Athens” awaits, and if you are a supporter of this club I don’t ask you to be satisfied until then, but to have patience.
The sun will shine on us again.
