I’m not going to beat around the bush: this is going to be a bit of a different article; maybe not as organized or cleanly written as usual. The reason why is that I was originally going to write a thread on this topic, but it was going to be too difficult to organize because of the character limit. So, I’m just going to ramble a bit on here instead.
What I want to discuss today is Vincenzo Italiano — a manager I’ve liked for quite some time now, but who has particularly grown on me in recent weeks, as I’ve begun to see his career in a different light. I think he’s about as good of an Italian manager as the market has (well, had) to offer, despite the fact that his reputation in the public sphere has kind of plummeted over the last two years.
For this post, I’m going to use Thiago Motta as a primary point of reference. Motta is indeed great, as emphasized by him having helped Bologna qualify for the European Cup/Champions League for just the second time in club history. Given this achievement, along with his style of play, history as an incredibly intelligent player, and age of just 41, Thiago Motta is perceived as one of the most exciting managers in the world right now. And I don’t disagree. What I do think is that Vincenzo Italiano is a lot closer to Thiago Motta than most would think. In fact, Italiano might even be the superior manager. This is comparison does not have the purpose of diminishing Motta, but rather quite the opposite; using him as a benchmark and subsequently showing why Italiano is on the same level; why Italiano is an extremely good coach too. To begin, I’m going to briefly go through the respective careers of these managers up to this point, beginning with Motta.
Motta—Background & Genoa (2019)
I want to put my cards on the table and begin to paint a narrative surrounding Motta, the coach; I’ve had some issues with him and how he’s been perceived in recent years, and I think the underlying reasons might be relevant when discussing why his reputation is so different from Italiano’s at the moment. My narrative is, more or less, that Thiago Motta was regarded as a highly exciting coach of the future before he had really achieved which would justify it—up until this season that is. It all dates back to his playing career I think. People who remember Motta as a player will almost certainly describe him as “underrated”, which is obviously ironic because if everyone calls something underrated that thing cannot be underrated, but that’s not the point here. The point is that I think Motta really began to grow a soft spot amongst a lot of people during his time at PSG especially. He arrived at the club in the same summer in which Zlatan Ibrahimović, Thiago Silva and Ezequiel Lavezzi arrived at the club, which essentially kickstarted their modern era of star power and glamor, which many have found undesirable. Amidst all of this, Thiago Motta likely served as a refreshing contrast; his pre-PSG career had been a bit odd, and while he was never really regarded as a top player he really began to prove himself at PSG; he became underrated. Some would merely be captured by the wonder-goals of Zlatan Ibrahimović, others would be captured by Thiago Motta doing the more subtle things; controlling the game in and out of possession. “He wasn’t the flashiest player, but incredibly smart; he controlled the tempo”, and similar regista-clichés. I’m not saying any of this is necessarily wrong, but I think Motta’s reputation as being highly intelligent and easy to root for due to his lack of “hype”, arose well before he started coaching, and I think some people simply decided that he was going to be a great coach before he even started coaching.
Immediately upon his retirement, Motta would begin coaching PSG’s u19 team, which is one of multiple factors which ultimately makes it unsurprising that he has turned out to be a great coach. This along with his early, high praise for Gian Piero Gasperini, his Coverciano thesis—which was publicly released in 2020—as well as his experience playing for big teams (including time in La Masia) and style of play, made the idea of Thiago Motta, the coach, exciting. In fact, perhaps most notably, Motta would gain traction as an up-and-coming coach after an interview with La Gazzetta dello Sport in 2018, in which he discussed some of his visions, notably including his “2–7–2 formation”. It seems like many simply saw “2–7–2” and went “guess he’s a real innovative and wacky coach, huh?”, without actually realizing what he meant by this. So, what did he mean? Well, the 2–7–2 is actually nowhere near as eccentric of an idea as it may seem; it’s supposed to be interpreted horizontally, with two players on the left hand side, seven central players (including the goalkeeper) and two players on the right hand side. Buzz would continue to build as he got his first coaching gig in senior football about a year later, in his return to Genoa. He had previously played for the Ligurian club under Gasperini, and now it was his time to show his progressive ideas and save the club from relegation, but it was to no avail. To his defense, it was a really odd stint. Genoa were never really supposed to be relegated with the squad they had, which means 1) their eventual survival was not a huge shock 2) Thiago Motta’s solid underlying numbers (as seen below, via Understat) over a limited sample size weren’t as impressive as they may have seemed… well, regardless he was sacked following a massive underperformance, meaning he wouldn’t be able to show that he was a great coach in practice; a theme that would continue.
Now that Motta has shown to be a great coach over the past year, it will seem obvious to some. Although he has only had one good coaching season in his career so far, it will be enough for many to draw conclusions about him, especially with these aforementioned factors that made the idea of him as a coach exciting to begin with. And as much as I have honestly doubted Motta, the coach, in the past, I don’t disagree with this, as I, too, am essentially completely sold on him by now. However, Italiano doesn’t quite have the same luxury, as we will get to soon.
Motta—Spezia (2021–22)
Motta would wait a while before taking on his next challenge, but would eventually take over Spezia—a team that was entering just its second ever season in Serie A. Given the team had avoided relegation somewhat comfortably the prior season, and had made quite a few notable acquisitions, the goal was certainly to survive once more, but while Motta would succeed at this, he wouldn’t prove much in the process. Spezia were ultimately a highly uninspiring team on pretty much all fronts, and they managed to escape relegation by the skin of their teeth.
Motta didn’t do a bad job at Spezia; in the end the fact that he helped them avoid relegation was not nothing, but it also wasn’t any sort of miracle, and simultaneously he showed very little in terms of tactical potential in the process. Maybe he simply didn’t have the players to show that he was worth being lauded as a highly promising coach? I guess that’s fair, especially given he’s now proven himself at Bologna, but… well, we’ll get to this later.
Motta—Bologna (2022–2024)
It was at Bologna where Thiago Motta would finally get a chance to show himself to be a great coach in practice. The team had consistently and exclusively been lower mid-table–mid-table caliber for years, and this should have been enough of a foundation for Motta to show something. He would take over the team after Siniša Mihajlović was sacked amidst poor results and evidently deteriorating health conditions—he would unfortunately pass away just a few months later. In any case, Bologna certainly had a mid-table caliber squad as always, yet Motta would fail to get much out of his players. The stylistic change that came with his arrival was notable, and it will admittedly have been difficult to implement such a dramatic change after taking over in the middle of the season. Still, Motta was able to work with the majority of the squad during the extensive World Cup break, and it didn’t really change much, although their results would—in fairness—subsequently improve. In Bologna’s nine matches under Motta leading up to the World Cup, Bologna had amassed 10.93 expected points—an average of about 1.21 xPTS per game. Following the World Cup, Bologna would average 1.19 xPTS per game over a 23-match sample size. Although Bologna would technically end up on the verge of qualifying for the Europa Conference League, finishing just two points behind… Vincenzo Italiano’s Fiorentina, they would rank 14th in xPTS starting from Motta’s first game in charge, and 14th in xPTS post-World Cup as well (via Understat). Although Motta received high praise for his work with Bologna this season, as he picked up decent results with them and the team was starting to develop an interesting style of play, he was still yet to truly prove himself. Bologna were, as always, a lower mid-table team, and if anything they had practically only regressed under him.
However, Motta’s 2023–24 season would be his big breakout, in which he showed that he really is worthy of being regarded as one of the most exciting young managers in the world. He brought Bologna back to the European Cup/Champions League for just the second time EVER. It is an extraordinary achievement, and this along with his work with the players—as well as many of the aforementioned factors that previously made Motta an interesting manager in theory—has been enough to convince me that Motta is about as good of an Italian manager as you’ll find. With that being said, I do think it’s important to add some context to this season. First and foremost, Bologna’s eventual qualification to the Champions League was conditioned by a number of factors. First of all, it was conditioned by an overperformance by Bologna. They ended up ranking just eighth in the Serie A for xG (via FBref), and a slight overperformance here would help them decide quite a few games, which largely saw Bologna prevent the opposition from scoring chances, without creating much themselves. They would similarly also “only” rank sixth in expected points (via Understat), which does partly show that they aren’t really a Champions League-caliber team—which is by all means fine, but also necessary context to add to the achievement of having still qualified for the competition. Additionally, I personally believe this was a particularly weak Serie A season, and I want to clarify that this argument is not made to diminish Thiago Motta as a coach, because—again—I believe he is an excellent coach with an excellent future. In fact, I have made this claim in many other contexts, and I don’t think it’s that difficult to back up. As for Milan, they were highly unimpressive and had barely improved from their post-World Cup 2022–23 level, despite quite a few additions in the prior summer mercato. Juventus would ultimately improve in terms of their performances, but for having been the second best team in the league, they were extremely underwhelming, and their improvement in terms of level of performances would likely be the result of their lack of involvement in European competitions. Furthermore, Napoli would make history as the worst defending champions of Italy of all time in terms of points—beating out 1949–50 Torino, whose *almost* entire team had literally perished in a plane crash the prior season. Meanwhile, Roma and Lazio would remarkably regress, while Atalanta would only marginally improve and the rest of the league would mostly also be worse compared to the prior season, in my opinion. With this, finishing fifth with Bologna is obviously going to be easier, which also brings me to my next point: this was a historic season in which fifth place would be good enough to qualify for the Champions League in the Serie A. In fact, as for how historic this achievement is—with Bologna having only qualified for the European Cup/Champions League once before—I think it’s also notable that it used to be much more difficult to qualify for the European Cup, before it became the Champions League, as way less teams would qualify.
On top of all of this, the leap Bologna had made from 2022–23 to 2023–24 was likely the result of 1) Motta being given a full pre-season with the team, 2) Motta doing a great job developing many players, and 3) excellent recruitment from Giovanni Sartori. If you didn’t already know, Giovanni Sartori is one of the greatest sporting directors of all time, and to be quite frank, Bologna’s rise from eternal mid-table mediocrity began with his arrival at the club, rather than Motta’s arrival. It’s the same director who brought ChievoVerona from complete obscurity to the Champions League, and who transformed Atalanta from a yo-yo club to a perennial Champions League/Europa League team. So, while Motta did truly do an amazing job developing– and deploying the likes of Jhon Lucumí, Remo Freuler, Riccardo Calafiori, Lewis Ferguson, Joshua Zirkzee, Sam Beukema, Stefan Posch, etc, it should be noted that Bologna’s rise has been the result of a symbiotic relationship between Sartori and Motta; Sartori has identified great talents/players, and Motta has subsequently gotten the most out of them. Motta truly deserves all the praise for doing this, but—again—the focus of this article is why Italiano deserves to be held to the same standard, and in his case he just hasn’t had the luxury of working with someone like Sartori—quite the opposite, as we will get to.
Italiano—Background & Spezia (2019–2021)
In great contrast to Thiago Motta, Vincenzo Italiano had a very forgettable career—at least forgettable to anyone who doesn’t support Hellas Verona. Indeed it was in Verona where he spent the overwhelming majority of his career (also with Chievo), and throughout it he would bounce back and forth between the Serie A and Serie B. Therefore, when he started coaching in his late 30’s, he was not perceived to be a future top coach before he had even shown anything to justify it, unlike Motta. Instead, he by all means had to start from the bottom. Upon his player retirement, Italiano would return to Veneto, beginning with a brief gig as assistant coach of Venezia, followed by a few stints with some low-tier youth– and professional teams respectively. Then, it was in 2018–19 that he had his first breakthrough of sorts, as he would return to his hometown team of Trapani, leading them to promotion to Serie B.
This would earn him a job at Spezia, but he went into this job with a much weaker reputation compared to Motta when the latter would arrive at the same club a few years later. On that topic, however, it should be said that Italiano left a much greater impact on Spezia. In 2019–20, he would lead Spezia to the Serie A for the first time in club history… well, aside from that one time they won a fake scudetto during WW2—it’s a long story! This in and of itself was perhaps not as big of an achievement as the historic nature of it may make it seem, as Spezia had finished sixth in Serie B the season before Italiano took over, but it was instead in Italiano’s first season coaching in Serie A where he would have a major breakthrough. Spezia were weak on paper, and indeed they were flawed; conceding the second most xG in the league that year (via FBref), however the team was incredibly brave, daring, and in the end they would somewhat comfortably– (all things considered) and deservedly avoid relegation. The team ultimately wasn’t much stronger under Italiano than it was under Motta, however, aside from it being weaker on paper, the key difference was how it played. Italiano’s Spezia ranked eighth in average possession, whereas Motta’s Spezia ranked 17th, which obviously doesn’t mean that the former team was better than the former, in fact it doesn’t even reflect poorly upon Motta. Rather, it shows one of the most impressive aspects about Italiano as a manager; historically he has not just been able to exceed expectations with what he’s had to work with, but he’s also done so with an incredibly brave style of play that seemingly bodes well for his chances to succeed at an even higher level.
Italiano—Fiorentina (2021–2024)
It is at Fiorentina where Italiano has become gravely misunderstood, and I will partly demonstrate this by going through each season he spent at the club, however we don’t even really need to do this to get the gist of why he’s become misunderstood. The reason why Italiano’s stint at Fiorentina has led to him becoming understood, is that he has had to completely paper over the cracks of a dysfunctionally ran football club. Historically and culturally, Fiorentina is a relatively big club, so when Vincenzo Italiano brought them back to being a perennial European team it may have been impressive at first, but eventually it would become less well-received, because after all it was what you were supposed to do with Fiorentina. But, this really isn’t fair, and we can look at what transpired prior to Italiano’s arrival at Fiorentina to get a glimpse of why this is. First of all, Fiorentina had previously failed to qualify for a European competition since the 2015–16 season, but even more notably, they had finished 16th in 2018–19, 10th in 2019–20, and 13th in the season prior to Italiano’s arrival. It is notable that these league finishes were partly a result of immense underperformance, however this streak clearly implies that Fiorentina was not in good shape when Italiano took over. The club was not well-ran, and by all means I think this would continue during Italiano’s time at the club, however the results would improve pretty considerably, due to his incredible work. But don’t Fiorentina’s management at least deserve some credit for successfully taking a chance at Italiano? Well, that decision still doesn’t absolve them of all the other mistakes they made, but beyond that it should also be noted that Italiano was by no means Fiorentina’s first choice to be their new manager going into the 2021–22 season in the first place. That, instead, would be Gennaro Gattuso, who had just been sacked by Napoli, and who had previously been sacked by Milan a few years prior. Sure enough, he would be their guy, and they officially appointed him, only for the two parties to part ways just a few weeks later—perhaps an indication of issues with the sporting direction of the club, but also the only reason why the club even hired Italiano to begin with.
Anyway, how did Italiano’s first season at Fiorentina go? Well, one of the reasons why his reputation has deteriorated since this season is that this remains the most impressive season of his career, but this is also because he had the strongest squad he’s ever worked with. For about half the season, he had capocannoniere contender Dušan Vlahović, along with the defensive trio of Nikola Milenković, Igor and Lucas Martínez Quarta—all of which had the best season of their respective careers. In midfield, Giacomo Bonaventura had a bounceback year after an underwhelming debut season at the club, and Lucas Torreira also made a big impact in his only season at the club—as a loanee. It should still be emphasized that the margins in terms of what Italiano had to work with this season compared to his final two seasons mostly came down to just a few departing players and other players failing to live up to what they achieved this season, for whatever reason that may be. That is to say, the squad didn’t change dramatically on paper following 2021 — 22, but the difference in quality was dramatic. On that note I also think it’s worthy to point out that while Italiano did lead Fiorentina to seventh place and qualification to the Europa Conference League this season, the squad he had at his disposal was underwhelming in many areas even at this point. Additionally, the departure of Dušan Vlahović in January was fundamental, and although Italiano dealt with this loss exceptionally well, it was not sustainable. In the end, Vlahović was never even close to being adequately replaced, and moreover Fiorentina would reinvest the money they made off of him quite poorly. In any case, before moving on I think it’s important to summarize what actually happened this season, aside from Italiano leading Fiorentina to a return to European competitions. Fiorentina would start off as an extremely volatile team, which was no surprise with the way they played; they were brave and aggressive, just as Italiano’s Spezia had been, and although things looked ugly at times, how could they not given the caliber of the squad? People often criticize the supposed overvaluation of tactical style, which I understand to an extent because there is some truth to results or rather even practical performances being worth equally as much no matter how they have been achieved. On the other hand, Italiano did not just stand out in 2021–22 for his tactical style, but also for the fact that he achieved tremendous results, backed by similarly great underlying numbers. Fiorentina would go from 46.3% possession per game in 2020–21 to a near-league leading 57.7% possession per game in 2021–22 (via FBref), which is obviously slightly reductive, but it does give you a glimpse of how Fiorentina played and the impact Italiano had on the team. With the players they had at their disposal, it wasn’t meant to be possible to play the way Fiorentina did, but with Italiano’s help—both as a tactician and coach—they did, and they achieved fantastic results while doing so. Sure enough, Fiorentina would rank fifth in xGD (compared to 15th the season prior—via FBref) and seventh in xPTS (compared to 14th the season prior—via Understat). It was an exceptional feat, and to connect things back to Thiago Motta, I really wonder how much more impressive Motta’s past season is than Italiano’s 2021–22 season. First of all, Motta had been given a squad that was largely designed by one of the greatest sporting directors of all time, whereas Italiano was able to make the most out of a mediocre squad with some fringe quality. Beyond that, though, I’m not even sure 2023–24 Bologna are a better team than 2021–22 Fiorentina were. It’s easy to argue otherwise, given Bologna qualified for the Champions League and Fiorentina only qualified for the Conference League, however when you account for the underlying numbers and the difference in quality of competition, I think it’s much easier to argue in Fiorentina’s favor. As mentioned, 2023–24 was a particularly weak season for the Serie A, whereas the 2021–22 season was probably the strongest edition of the Serie A that we’ve seen since the early 2010’s. Furthermore, 2021–22 Fiorentina’s xGD of 19.4 was almost twice as great as 2023–24 Bologna’s xGD of 10.9 (via FBref), while Fiorentina essentially also finished on the same amount of expected points in 2021–22 as Bologna this past season (61.56 compared to 61.40—via Understat).
In 2022–23, Fiorentina were supposed to make progress by wisely investing the money they had made from the Vlahović sale and the team improving, however with a disappointing summer mercato and the increase in matches played through the qualification for the Europa Conference League, Fiorentina would instead struggle a lot more than they had the previous season. As for how they addressed the departure of Vlahović, I suppose they tried to recreate him in the aggregate… with Arthur Cabral and Luka Jović, the latter of which had been brought in as an immediate replacement for Vlahović in January, and had shown very little going into the 2022–23 season. In the summer, Fiorentina would also sign Rolando Mandragora, Dodô, Pierluigi Gollini, and Antonín Barák, none of which were good/impactful signings… like at all. Throughout the 2022–23 season, it was Fiorentina’s defensive vulnerability that stood out and seemed to be the primary reason for their increased struggles, but in reality they had dealt with similar issues the prior season; their xGA only regressed from 40.6 in 2021–22 to 43.4 in 2022–23 (via FBref). So, sure, Nikola Milenković regressed, significantly, Igor and Lucas Martínez Quarta regressed somewhat, but this along with the significant increase in matches played was partly mended by the increased role of Sofyan Amrabat, who had a fantastic season. That is to say, while they were vulnerable defensively, this was not their main issue, and the defensive regression from the prior season was 1) not really Italiano’s fault, and 2) very insignificant. What Fiorentina really struggled with was chance creation and goal-scoring. With their attacking personnel consisting of Arthur Cabral, Luka Jović, Jonathan Ikoné, Riccardo Sottil, Nicolás González, and Christian Kouamé, it shouldn’t have come as a surprise. Between the aforementioned players were an appalling 24 non-penalty goals—yes, that’s 24 non-penalty goals from all of Fiorentina’s attacking players, combined, over a 38-match league campaign. Sure enough, it was not just about the execution once chances were created, but about an extreme lack of threat with and without the ball. Despite this, Fiorentina would finish eighth, qualifying for the Europa Conference League once more, due to Juventus being disqualified from UEFA competitions for the following season, in relation to the Plusvalenza case. Perhaps more notably, Fiorentina would also reach the Coppa Italia final and the Europa Conference final… both of which they lost, but more on this later.
The 2023–24 season would see Fiorentina regress once more, and with the mercato they ended up having, it was no surprise. They notably lost Sofyan Amrabat and Igor, and subsequently replaced them with Arthur Melo and Yerry Mina respectively, which ended up playing a key role in the team’s defensive regression—from 43.4 xGA to 48.2 xGA (via FBref). Further more, Fiorentina were not happy with their striker duo of Luka Jović and Arthur Cabral, letting go of both but somehow coming up with an even worse stiker duo of Mbala Nzola and Lucas Beltrán, who combined for seven non-penalty goals and 6.7 npxG—THOSE ARE THEIR MAIN TWO STRIKERS!!!!!!! Other signings would include Fabiano Parisi, who has looked good when he’s played for Fiorentina, but he has been unable to bench Fiorentina captain Cristiano Biraghi. Gino Infantino was a project signing which has left no mark so far. Oliver Christensen was brought in to potentially give Fiorentina an upgrade in goal, but he has remained the backup goalkeeper instead—justifiably at that. Maxime Lopez was brought in to add some extra firepower to the midfield, but with his proneness to injury and awful lack of size, his practically nonexistent impact has not come as a surprise. Davide Faraoni and Andrea Belotti were brought in on loan in January, and they will not be staying at the club permanently, to put it briefly. I think it’s fair to ask yourself whether these were all bad signings, or if Italiano just isn’t very good at player development… but we have seen him develop players, even with the little he’s been given to work with. It’s not just that he is merely able to develop them technically either, as he played a key role Dušan Vlahović’s big breakout season at Fiorentina, for instance. Meanwhile, we saw sporting directors Daniele Pradè and Nicolás Burdisso make plenty of mistakes at Fiorentina prior to Italiano’s arrival, which was a big part of what had put them in the slump they were in before Italiano was hired. Furthermore, when you look at what the players who were brought in had achieved prior to their arrival in Florence, it’s no surprise that they almost all ended up flopping… well, aside from Fabiano Parisi, who had previously pretty clearly demonstrated a lot of quality in the Serie A. Anyway, Fiorentina would still manage to stumble into eighth place and they would make a return to the Europa Conference final… where they lost, again, thus closing the Italiano—Fiorentina cycle. Ultimately, he would go on to lead Fiorentina to three consecutive qualifications to European competitions (the latter two of which were admittedly highly circumstantial), his team would never finish below ninth in expected points, and he brought Fiorentina to three finals in two years, despite the holes in his squads. In the end he gave it his all, and even after Fiorentina’s squad had been completely depleted, Italiano was still able to comfortably sustain their status as a top-half–borderline-European caliber team, playing football his way. His final two seasons at Fiorentina would largely see the public turn on him; coming to view him as an overrated hipster’s coach, but one man with a special eye was impressed nonetheless, and he has given Italiano a second chance: Bologna’s Giovanni Sartori.
What went wrong at Fiorentina?
I’ve already touched on some of the things that went wrong for Italiano at Fiorentina, but I still think it would be useful to summarize. And my really brief summary is that his success in his debut season was always going to be unsustainable due to the somewhat flukey overperformances of some players, while further sales and poor recruitment would inevitably lead to Fiorentina’s squad regressing quite significantly over the coming two years, even with a lack of particularly dramatic changes. Specifically, I think the issue is this: Italiano is a highly offensive coach who has been forced to coach an extremely flawed squad; partly in terms of defensive contributors, but more notably in terms of attacking players. Since the departure of Dušan Vlahović, Italiano’s best — and most impactful attacking player has been Nicolás González—a technically limited winger who has averaged 0.45 npxG+xAG per 90 in the Serie A with Fiorentina (via FBref). So, with a lack of players with outstanding defensive characteristics, paired with a highly aggressive style of play, of course Fiorentina were going to concede chances and thereby also goals. Meanwhile, with an even more severe lack of dangerous creators or dangerous off-ball players, of course Fiorentina were not going to be able to make up for their defensive issues with attacking prominence. This past season, Fiorentina ranked second in passes into the final third, and the season prior they ranked third in passes into the final third (via FBref), but while there they simply didn’t have the quality to consistently get the ball into dangerous positions—Italiano’s buildup or offensive tactics were certainly not the reason for Fiorentina’s relative lack of chance creation, for a team with an identity such as theirs. Still, with all of these struggles in mind, you may think it would have been right for Italiano to become more pragmatic. The truth is that he did, and starting from the 2022–23 season, Fiorentina would much more regularly compromise their usual principles, but the truth is also that with the squad Italiano had to work with, there just wasn’t much more he could do. He struggled a lot with Fiorentina—that is true, however he never failed to live up to any reasonable expectations. So, there never was a massive need for pragmatism from Italiano, when you consider the results he achieved with what he had to work with. As hinted towards earlier, I think a big reason why Italiano’s reputation has plummeted is that people have just assumed that Fiorentina’s return to European competitions in 2021–22 signified that the club as a whole was back to its “best”. However, it was really all thanks to the work of Italiano alone, and Italiano never ever underperformed with the players he had to work with. One could argue that as time went on, Fiorentina began to perform increasingly close to the level of their squad, but is that not just inevitable anyway? If Motta had chosen to stay at Bologna and didn’t have Sartori to help him out, do you not see him having a similar trajectory to that of Italiano at Fiorentina? A manager can only sustain an overperformance for so long after all, yet Italiano never really compromised his technotactical identity.
Serial loser?
Italiano’s reputation has hardly benefitted from him having lost three finals within the space of a year, but honestly this doesn’t affect my opinion on Italiano whatsoever. One reason why is that I’m universally dubious of judging players/managers based on their record in big games, finals, and whatnot, because the outcome of those games are often highly circumstantial, and on top of that the sample size tends to be so incredibly small anyway. In the case of Italiano, some are questioning him as a coach based on a *checks notes* three-game sample size. That in and of itself, is idiotic. Furthermore, however, Italiano’s team should only have been a clear favorite in one of these finals, yet you could argue that his team should have won each and one of them based on how they performed. Starting with the Coppa Italia final in 2023, Italiano’s Fiorentina did face an Inter that would only finish third in Serie A that season, however it was also an Inter that had been completely transformed after the World Cup, establishing itself as a top team with its run to the Champions League final, where they would outplay eventual treble winners Manchester City. The team that Fiorentina faced in that match is really not much different from the team that won the scudetto with 94 this past season. Even then, Fiorentina would put in a fantastic performance in this final, and Italiano was simply unlucky that his team wasn’t at least able to take the game to added time, as they missed multiple big chances towards the end of the game. So, if this match affected/affects the way you perceive Italiano for the worse, I just think you’re a bit stupid. As for the Europa Conference League final just a couple weeks later, it’s easy to say that Fiorentina were the favorites since they ranked a lot higher in their league compared to West Ham in their league, however on paper I absolutely believe West Ham were stronger—boasting two world class players, in Declan Rice and Lucas Paquetá, for instance. In fairness, Fiorentina didn’t put in a dominant performance against West Ham, who defended well although they saw very little of the ball. On the other hand, I absolutely think Fiorentina were the stronger team in this final, and more importantly, it was Cristiano Biraghi who made an error leading up to each of West Ham’s two goals—the same Cristiano Biraghi who had sustained quite a serious head injury after West Ham supporters had thrown objects at him. It was a shameful moment for the sport as a whole, especially given the eventual outcome of the match, and it will absolutely have affected both Biraghi as well as the team as a whole. So, even in this case, I just don’t understand how this match can you change your opinion on Italiano for the worse if you’re just a little bit intellectually honest. Finally, we then have the recent Europa Conference League final against Olympiakos, which—in fairness—is the match that reflects the worst upon Italiano. It was an extremely dull match in which Fiorentina lacked their traditional aggressiveness, which, along with some of Italiano’s team decisions, was heavily criticized. Still, I think it’s pretty clear that Fiorentina were the better team, and if they had scored any one of the big chances they created in regulation, I don’t think anyone would have cared to criticize him—that’s result-based bias for you. Really, I think it says a lot that Italiano’s weakest final was a match which his team ultimately should have won… but even then, we’re speaking about a three-match sample size, and I just don’t understand why people value stuff like this anyway. It is stupid.
Conclusion
Think about how little Thiago Motta has actually achieved as a coach; he proved next to nothing at Genoa, he just about kept Spezia away from relegation while showing very little tactical promise, he had an underwhelming first season at Bologna, and THEN he quite luckily led them to the Champions League, instilling a highly enticing style of play and doing an excellent job developing players in the process. I think the main differences between him and Italiano—aside from technotactical intricacies—are background and the fact that Italiano is more of an attacking coach, while Motta is more defensive despite also being heavily possession-based. Motta, with his style of play when he was a player, his background with Gasperini, his Coverciano thesis, his “2–7–2”, his experience at La Masia, Inter and PSG, etc, is admittedly the much more enticing name on the surface—he’s also five years younger than Italiano. Still, though, I would argue that Italiano has achieved even more as a coach. I sincerely believe his 2021–22 season with Fiorentina is about as impressive as Motta’s most recent season with Bologna, and aside from that I think Italiano’s 2020–21 season with Spezia was a lot more impressive than Motta’s stint at the club the following season, which is not to mention that there’s even a lot to take away from Italiano’s last two seasons at Fiorentina. One key difference between the two, in terms of what they have shown, could be perceived to be player development, but I think this is just a case of survivorship bias; Motta has gotten to work with a lot of talented players thanks to his partnership with Giovanni Sartori, whereas Italiano has not… to the same extent, at least. I still think Italiano has shown quite a lot in terms of maximizing what he’s had to work with, which bodes well for him in the role of a developmental coach. Furthermore, he has worked with– and done quite well with the likes of Dušan Vlahović, Sofyan Amrabat, Michael Kayode, Igor and Fabiano Parisi—a group of players which more concretely shows that Italiano is indeed capable of developing and/or transforming players.
It is true that Italiano is flawed, and in his case it mainly concerns his aggressive on- and off-ball approach which leads to an undeniable level of defensive vulnerability, but I think it’s easy to overstate this issue if you don’t consider that it has largely been the result of a lack of quality on the pitch. Still, it is a reasonable question mark, although that really isn’t saying much. At this point, Italiano’s future is no longer in doubt as he has officially been appointed by Bologna, but in regards to prior links to Milan and Napoli, they would never have been able to find a coach who was significantly less flawed than Italiano—you simply have to bank on the upside. To some extent, this is what Juventus are doing with Thiago Motta too. After all, he has only had one good season in his managerial career, and even then his team was rather uninspiring going forward and more so pretty to watch than fun to watch. Even more notably, the underlying numbers throughout Simone Inzaghi’s time at Lazio were always underwhelming to some extent, without exception, yet Inter took a chance on him and by now he has established himself as one of the best/better managers in world football. Italian clubs ultimately almost always have to take a chance on managers that are unproven to some degree; managers that have managed incredibly flawed teams on paper, and have therefore achieved flawed results. Realistically, you’re not going to be able to snag someone away from a team that is very strong on paper, because they’re good where they are. Instead, you’re going to be looking at the likes of Motta, Inzaghi and Italiano, all of which fit the previous mould. In recent years, Italiano has achieved good-amazing results with what he’s had to work with, but beyond that in and of itself, he has done so with a style of play that suggests he can do even better if given an opportunity at a higher level. I understand that many feel that managers should be assessed based on results/their team’s level of performances, rather than the underlying process, but this is not how a lot of football clubs think, and I think that’s for good reason. If you still think Italiano is just an ordinary coach, consider that Bayern München just hired Vincent Kompany on the precedent of his impressive style of play with Burnley… a team which he had gotten promoted to the Premier League, and subsequently relegated—justly so. Whether or not you agree with this decision, it clearly means something. If a club as monumental as Bayern München were willing to take a chance on Vincent Kompany based on his leadership experience at the highest level of European football, his experience playing under Pep Guardiola, how his team pressed, how his team built up, and how his players acted in possession — despite highly mixed results — consider that Italiano has not only proven himself to a similar degree in terms of style of play, but has also achieved much more in terms of results. Maybe he should have been Bayern’s guy instead? Well, considering I don’t think Vincent Kompany should have been their guy, maybe not, but I do think Italiano should have been Milan’s guy, and if not Milan’s guy then he should’ve been seen as a blessing from above for Napoli… but both clubs would ultimately pass on Italiano, who would ironically replace Motta at Bologna instead. It’s not the glamorous job I feel he deserves, however it will provide him with a solid infrastructure at last. It is the same infrastructure that set off Thiago Motta’s managerial career. Hopefully it can similarly help Italiano prove himself for a second time; proving the critics terribly wrong.
