The Parisian Perspective
Who Will Replace Kylian Mbappé at Paris Saint Germain Next Season?
Kylian Mbappé finally seems to be heading towards his destined move to Real Madrid in the summer. Granted, this is not the first time we’ve heard that, but this time around the circumstances are different. With Mbappé’s contract set to expire we know that the move is financially viable for Real Madrid, and it also makes a lot more sense for Mbappé now as Karim Benzema is no longer at Real Madrid, who now lack a bit of star power in attack. Sure, there are still some potential issues with the tactical fit, but that’s another topic for another day and it shouldn’t lead to Mbappé extending his contract. Mbappé is the best player in the world, and Real Madrid is the biggest club in the world, so naturally most of the attention will be directed towards this move, but I thought it’d be more interesting to look at what this means for PSG.
We’ve seen some truly big names at PSG since the Qatari-backed financial takeover of the club in 2011: first Zlatan Ibrahimović, then Neymar, then Kylian Mbappé, and then even Lionel Messi. Zlatan left the club less than 8 years ago (can you believe that?), Neymar and Messi left the club last summer, and Mbappé looks set to leave the club this upcoming summer. This will leave PSG without any sort of “superstar” player for the first time since the 2011–12 season, and while PSG have been criticized for recruiting too much based on big names and reputation, we have also seen highly mixed results from some of their more “humble” moves as well; Ugarte, Gonçalo Ramos, Vitinha, Ekitiké, Barcola, Krychowiak, Ruiz, Soler, Sanches, Mukiele, etc. I myself have been of the belief that PSG need to be more “humble” with their recruitment, but based on the aforementioned results I’m now starting to doubt that. Just by looking at PSG’s squad, I can’t help but feel like it’s a bit unworthy of a club of such financial power and influence on the transfer market. In players like Randal Kolo Muani, Gonçalo Ramos, Bradley Barcola, Marco Asensio, Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha, Manuel Ugarte, Nordi Mukiele, Milan Škriniar, and Gianluigi Donnarumma, there may be potential, but I think they collectively symbolize a lack of immediate quality for a club which has all the resources to be one of the very best teams on the planet.
But can PSG really be one of the true top teams in the world? Are they actually capable of conquering Europe? Many have implied, or outright claimed that there are some intangible factors and issues with the club’s environment which prevent it from ever being truly successful, and while I do think these factors have played a role in PSG’s lack of true success in the modern era, I don’t think it’s impossible for the club to succeed. The club’s 2017–2023 era proves this. In this era, PSG were legitimately one of the very best teams in the world on a year-to-year basis. A mix of bad luck — be it through injuries or within certain games — and lack of tactical quality (although not always) would prevent PSG from winning the Champions League in these years, but I think they showed that they can do it in those years. But right now, they are not in a comparable position, and the imminent departure of Kylian Mbappé will make this apparent. Right now, it feels like PSG are heading towards mediocrity, and I think a strong statement through the transfer market is warranted. PSG ideally need a player who can become the new face of the club, and in this article I’m going to explore some of the names that I think are interesting.
Gabriel Martinell (Arsenal)
Hey, I like Gabriel Martinelli, but you don’t need to tell me; this hypothetical signing does not quite meet the criteria I just formulated. Martinelli’s big breakout at the senior level is still yet to arrive, and while he did make a leap last year, he has stagnated this season and still has a lot to prove. Nonetheless, I think Martinelli is an interesting reserve option for PSG. Sure, it’s also worth pointing out that Arsenal would be extremely hesitant to sell Martinelli in the summer, but considering the season he’s having I think there is such a thing as an offer Arsenal can’t refuse.
As for the signing, I think Martinelli is still too raw and unproven to be a seamless Mbappé replacement, but we know his potential is high, and perhaps more importantly I really like his profile in terms of replacing Mbappé. Whether Mbappé is primarily a striker or a winger is debatable, and although Martinelli has almost exclusively played out wide since joining Arsenal, he has a similar — although arguably less ambiguous — left wing/striker profile. In fact, believe it or not, Martinelli is both the same height and same weight as Mbappé. Martinelli is a direct winger who is excellent off the ball, an excellent finisher, occasionally a proficient creator, and also a dangerous ball-carrier and dribbler. This description makes him sound like a finished product, which he admittedly isn’t. This season his end product has plummeted, and this inconsistency is one of the major concerns as for this transfer idea. Furthermore, while the stats don’t lie in terms of Martinelli’s ball-carrying and dribbling, I also think he’s somewhat limited in this department and has quite a low ceiling.
I think Gabriel Martinelli has the upside of a good Mbappé replacement, and the fact that Martinelli is Brazilian is nice due to the club’s strong Brazilian influence over the years. However, if I’m PSG I’m not taking the risk given how unreliable he is for the time being, especially as it would be a logistically difficult signing anyway. Still, I think it’s an option worth considering.
Rodrygo (Real Madrid)
I think Rodrygo is such an interesting player due to how he’s developed, how the public opinion on him has developed, and how my opinion on him has developed since he arrived at Real Madrid in 2019 — 20. I feel as though Rodrygo has become increasingly enigmatic in this time, and naturally he is thereby at his most enigmatic today. The narrative that Rodrygo is a top talent who is ready to explode once he’s simply given a chance in his natural left wing position, has grown increasingly popular over the last year or two, and it’s starting to resonate with me as well. With Mbappé set to arrive in the summer it’s going to start to get crowded at Real Madrid, and the question is if there will be space for Rodrygo? Again, like with Martinelli, there is a case for Rodrygo’s club being unwilling to let him go: he has a contract until 2028, he’s a big talent, and Real Madrid don’t really have much else to rely on when it comes to the right wing (even if that’s not Rodrygo’s strongest position). Then again, PSG might have the money to make Real Madrid an offer they can’t refuse, and they could provide Rodrygo with a golden opportunity. At PSG, Rodrygo could be a bonafide starter in his preferred position, and if he develops well he could become the face of one of the biggest clubs in the world.
The big question is, how good can Rodrygo become if he’s simply given a chance? In terms of his attributes, he’s a phenomenal dribbler, ball-carrier and ball-retainer, and off the ball he’s excellent. On the other hand, as a creator, he’s not quite as impactful, and when you consider his physical profile and poor finishing I think you begin to see some problems. The main differences between Vinícius and Rodrygo are that Vinícius is a significantly better finisher and a stronger creator, and even he has somewhat of a capped ceiling due to his physical profile and — in my opinion — subsequent lack of devastating end product. With that in mind, I’d be hesitant to sign Rodrygo — if it even is possible — if I were PSG. Still, I think Rodrygo has an extremely exciting upside. As a creator, he certainly has his moments of brilliance every now and then, and even as a finisher he tends to be someone who’s capable of converting more advanced chances, but struggling to convert more simple chances. I would predict that Rodrygo won’t ever become a “face-of-the-club” caliber player, but I also don’t know if that’s necessary in PSG’s case either. In a top, top team, Rodrygo could be more of a complementary piece — although he would play a more significant role than he does at Real Madrid today — and that might just be fine. The question in that case becomes whether he’s worth the money that would be required to lure him away from Real Madrid. Maybe not, but it is a fun idea nonetheless.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Napoli)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is one of the obvious options to replace Kylian Mbappé, and here again the question is more so if it’s logistically viable. With Victor Osimhen set to leave Napoli in the summer, it feels particularly doubtful that the club would also sell Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, although a departure within the coming two years does feel inevitable. For me, it doesn’t feel like the right time for Kvaratskhelia to leave Napoli, but money could change that.
Logistics aside, I would say this is a signing that fits the criteria for PSG. Kvaratskhelia is going to enter his prime in the coming years, and although some have called him a one season wonder, that couldn’t be further from the truth; Kvaratskhelia is a better player today than he was a year ago. His finishing has become increasingly inconsistent, but despite not being too physically imposing, Kvaratskhelia has become an excellent player off the ball, and he’s obviously a great creator as well. Compared to someone like Rodrygo, Kvaratskhelia feels more polished, although I also think his ceiling is somewhat limited, at least considering the level of players PSG could theoretically get their hands on with the money they have. Kvaratskhelia is phenomenal in buildup, and in the final third he is an overall threat, but he’s not quite creative nor dangerous enough of a goal threat enough to ever become one of the very best players in the world in my eyes. Then again, even if you have the money it’s not easy to acquire such a player, and PSG might simply have to accept that. In that case, Rodrygo might be a better option for PSG since his potential is at a similar level and Real Madrid might have more incentive to sell than Napoli with Kvaratskhelia.
Nonetheless, there are clearly some concerns with each of the options I’ve mentioned so far, but there is one option that I consider nearly perfect for PSG.
Rafael Leão
With Kylian Mbappé leaving the club, PSG will need to spend a lot of money on a replacement, and with that being the case I don’t think it’s ideal for them to sign a player who will likely never really come close to Kylian Mbappé. What I’m about to do, is endorse something that I do not want to happen; for PSG to sign Milan’s Rafael Leão. You might think that he — just like Martinelli, Rodrygo, and Kvaratskhelia — will never come close to Kylian Mbappé either, but I disagree. For now, Leão is admittedly still somewhat raw, but I think a coach, some experience, and a better supporting cast could make him one of the very best players in the world. Now THAT is a worthy Kylian Mbappé replacement.
Rafael Leão is the perfect Kylian Mbappé replacement, which is why I think it would be worth it for PSG to pay his €175m release clause as long as they are able to, and that is saying a lot. With Leão having signed a contract extension just last year, and having repeatedly expressed his love for Milan and desire to stay at the club, PSG would have to pay the release clause to sign him. This would make Leão the third most expensive signing in the history of football; just €5m cheaper than Mbappé’s original move to PSG, and about as close to Neymar’s record-breaking move to PSG as to what would then become the fourth most expensive transfer of all time (via Transfermarkt). That is a colossal signing, and I’m not even certain it is financially possible for PSG, but again: if it is, I think it’s worth it.
The reason why I like this move so much for PSG is how similar Leão’s profile is to that of Mbappé. Stylistically, they have their differences, as Leão is taller and weighs more, making him a more powerful player while Mbappé is more quick, nimble and sharp, but their overall attributes are quite similar. Both players are striker/left inside forward hybrids, who excel at carrying the ball and taking on defenders, while also being lethal in the final third, mostly standing out as goal threats. Sure, Leão may not have scored a league goal since September, but this is a result of various factors, few of which have much to do with his ability. What really makes Leão special is his combination of size, speed, and technical brilliance. He has the potential to develop into a huge goal threat since he possesses fairly good positional awareness, and more importantly his combination of physical dominance and creativity with the ball at his feet makes him a lethal shot creator for himself. Then, the X-factors in terms of Leão’s goal-scoring are his decision-making and consistency of finishing. Leão is clearly capable of excellent ball-striking if you watch some of his goals, but it’s not uncommon for him to fail to execute decisive actions due to really imprecise finishing or otherwise poor decision-making. Really, I think these are things that can be fixed through coaching, and that’s part of what makes Leão so exciting; it won’t take a miracle to make him take another huge leap, but likely just a good environment. Without the ball, with the ball, and in his final actions, Leão’s possesses extraordinary talent, and once he refines some relatively minor aspects of his game I truly believe he can become an A1 player. He’s a physical specimen and a genius with the ball, and it’s hard to emphasize how rare that is, and how rare Leão’s potential is as a consequence. For what it’s worth, beyond ball-carrying, dribbling, and goal-scoring, Leão is also legitimately an exciting creator as well, which has been showcased by the fact that his end product has not plummeted this season, despite his goal drought; to make up for it he is having the best creative season of his career. Leão seems to be getting better and better as a creator, and while his crossing still seems to need work, he regularly seems to be able to unlock the opposing team through exceptional dribbling, surgical passes, or a combination of both. This is something that I just think makes Leão so much more dynamic, as opposed to him being a dribbler and goal-scorer.
I’m not obtuse, and I do realize why some people aren’t as high on Leão as me. His current output definitely isn’t that of a Ballon d’Or-caliber player, he makes mistakes, he has games in which he doesn’t turn up, but that is mostly a product of the environment he’s in. I cannot stress how special Leão’s combination of speed, strength, dribbling, and — once/if it becomes more consistent — ball-striking is. If you watch Leão consistently, you will see him pull off actions that briefly make you think he’s the best player in the world. He is capable of things that other players simply are not. For me, these actions show a glimpse of what Leão can become in the right environment. Even in terms of Leão’s output over the last three seasons, it’s clear that Leão is already a fantastic player, which may not be apparent from my description of him so far. But, it’s these specific tendencies that show that he can become so much more. Leão has the tendencies of a player of Kylian Mbappé’s caliber, and that is the type of player PSG need. They have witnessed how devastating he can be first-hand. Rafael Leão is about as natural of a successor to Kylian Mbappé as you could find. If he will cost PSG €175m, so be it.
