Squeezing Water From A Stone
Foreword
This is the first edition of a new series where I will be projecting and analyzing the upcoming summer mercato of multiple Serie A clubs, one by one. In reality, the content of these articles will go way beyond signings and sales, but the “mercato” aspect remains the core of this series. As such, I want to make one thing clear: yes, I am aware that the football transfer market does not work the way it does in FIFA career mode, where you’re given a set transfer budget every summer, which increases by almost the exact transfer fee you receive for your player sales. In reality, the football transfer market is more complex due to the wages, agent fees, bonuses, amortizations, instalments, and such. However, some sort of baseline is needed to draw up what a potential mercato for a club could look like, so in this series I’m simply going to make a qualified guess at what the budget for each team will be, and the finances involved will mostly be viewed from a very simplified net spend lens, with some accounting for the role of wages.
The beginning of a new era
Last Fall I wrote two articles (I would at least recommend you to read the first one) breaking down why Roma should move on from José Mourinho and embrace a new sporting identity, and that is exactly what they have done, although it has not quite transpired the way I had anticipated it to. With Mourinho’s contract at Roma having been set to expire this summer, I expected him to stay until the end of the season, but instead he was sacked in January, and more surprisingly the interim that subsequently took over turned out to be the eventual permanent replacement. As touched on in the aforementioned articles, Roma’s issue was not merely Mourinho’s techno-tactical limits, but also the frankly dreadful recruitment from Tiago Pinto, and if there were ever any doubts about whether Roma really are undergoing a sporting revolution, the departure of Pinto along with Mourinho should have put them to bed by now. The new era of Roma is set to be led by two people: head coach Daniele De Rossi and sporting director Florent Ghisolfi. With De Rossi having instilled a more progressive style of play, and Ghisolfi having impressed particularly in his recruitment with limited resources at Lens, it’s clear that Roma are now focused on a sustainable long-term project in contrast to the Mourinho-Pinto era. However, as for the challenge De Rossi and Ghisolfi are facing, there’s no guarantee this will work out at all, and this article will discuss both the situation Roma are in and the aforementioned duo’s chances to improve it—along with how the summer mercato could help them get there.
The facade of De Rossi’s “new” Roma: Revisited
Just as I have already discussed Roma’s situation and how their future could look, I have also already written about De Rossi’s stint as Roma head coach so far (read here). However, in this article my perspective in regards to both subjects will be a lot more current and my thoughts will be more cohesive. Even back in late March, I was highly skeptical of De Rossi as a coach, and since then Roma have played quite a lot of games, with De Rossi continuing to leave me unimpressed. Really, the main critiques of De Rossi’s ongoing stint at Roma haven’t changed, but are rather easier to motivate now that the sample size is greater. First of all, from De Rossi’s arrival as head coach until the end of the season, Roma would rank just 10th in expected points (via Understat). Of course, xG data can be misleading, but if anything I think this statistic undersells how underwhelming and disjointed Roma have been in this stretch. It’s perhaps a little bit easier to see the narrative of De Rossi having transformed Roma for the better is inaccurate when you compare him to Mourinho. Under De Rossi, Roma amassed 25.70 xPTS in 18 matches; an average of approximately 1.42 xPTS per match. Under Mourinho, Roma amassed 33.56 xPTS in 20 matches; an average of approximately 1.68 xPTS (all data above via Understat) per match, over an almost equal sample size, but against a slightly harder schedule than that of De Rossi. Bear in mind, Mourinho was sacked for his run, and fairly so too, in my opinion.
Expected points remains an especially flawed metric, but I really don’t think it skews how Roma have performed De Rossi, and there are plenty of matches that exemplify this. For clarification, FBref will be the primary xG-source for these matches, as its xG-data is more reliable than Understat, and Understat was merely used as it provides xPTS-data. Anyway,
De Rossi’s very first match would come against relegation candidates Hellas Verona at home, and while Roma ended up winning 2–1, they created just 0.9 xG compared to Hellas Verona’s 1.1—against one of the worst teams in the league mind you. Roma would not exactly prove any doubters wrong the following week, as they had to fight for a win against Salernitana—the team that ended up setting the all-time record for the least points won in a 38-game long Serie A season — creating 1.6 xG to Salernitana’s 1.2; 0.8 non-penalty xG to Salernitana’s 1.2. De Rossi would later be praised for his match against Inter, but while Roma would lead the match at one point, it was essentially devoid of any created chances from open play on either side, and De Rossi more or less coached a 0–0 draw which ended in a 4–2 loss — something I frankly think José Mourinho would have been criticized for. Really, I think the narrative of De Rossi’s transformation of Roma is perpetuated by a plethora of biases and a lack of critical analysis in regards to how Roma have performed in this span. We are yet to even get to Roma’s directly poor performances under De Rossi, and even these matches hardly impressed. One example of a really poor performance by Roma under
De Rossi is their match away to Fiorentina. In this match, Roma would only have 33% possession; creating just 0.6 xG, while conceding 2.1 xG. However, after Fiorentina missed a penalty while leading 2–1 in the second half, Roma would go on to equalize with one of the very last kicks of the game. It was a match in which Roma defended low yet not particularly effectively; looked highly uninspiring in possession; created very few chances, and yet they ended up gaining a point. One of Roma’s most triumphant matches under De Rossi would come in the derby against Lazio, and while Roma were marginally better in this match, it was almost completely devoid of created chances (1.1 xG between both teams) and Roma would ultimately win off of a set piece. In the prior match, Roma had faced relegation candidates Lecce, which was ultimately a highly uninspiring performance as Roma had only created 1.3 xG but conceded 1.8 xG, mainly through poor defending in transition. Still, they would walk away with a point all the same. Against Napoli, Roma would create 1.6 xG, but according to Fotmob (which is able to separate xG by open play and set pieces), Roma would only create an astoundingly low 0.14 xG from open play. Napoli created 3.0 xG in this match (back to FBref here), and ultimately they would essentially lose two points to a somewhat circumstantial penalty as well as a last minute equalizer from a corner. In terms of Roma’s performance, they would fail to meaningfully threaten Napoli from open play, while they would leak chances in their own half. It was a bad performance, but not their worst of the season: that would come against Atalanta a few weeks later instead. In a decisive battle in the race for top five, Atalanta showed that they were a considerably stronger team, with one of the most dominant performances of the Serie A season, in the first half particularly. Yet, as much as Atalanta pushed Roma back, as much as they got the ball into dangerous areas, and as much as they created dangerous shot opportunities, they never scored a third goal, and suddenly Roma would be given a penalty off of a highly questionable call, which they converted. In what was frankly a terrible performance, Roma still had a chance to steal a point at the end, and they only lost by one goal. Really, Roma’s xGA of 2.7 only undersold how dominant Atalanta had been in that match. Roma’s performance in their final match of the season would also be quite poor. Sure, they were facing an Empoli that had everything to play for, as they were sitting in 18th place going into the match, but this was no excuse for Roma to put in the performance they did. Roma would ultimately concede 2.6 xG against one of the weakest teams in the league, which they had beaten 7–0 with Mourinho earlier in the season. According to Fotmob, Roma would concede an astonishing eight big chances, and while they would equalize in the second half after having initially conceded the first goal, Empoli would deservedly score in added time, clinching their survival from relegation to Serie B.
To be more nuanced, it’s not as if Roma have failed to put in a single great performance under De Rossi. Particularly in the Europa League, their run to the semi finals may not have been fully reflective of how well they played, but they put in an impressive run of performances against some strong teams. Against Feyenoord, led by Liverpool’s new manager Arne Slot, Roma would hold their own over a two-match tie which justly ended up going to penalties, where Roma would win. Sure, Mourinho had beaten the same team 4–2 on aggregate in the Europa League the year before; 1–0 in the Europa Conference League final the year before that, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that De Rossi held his own against a strong team led by a highly promising coach. In the first leg against Brighton in the next round, Roma would put in their best performance of the season, deservedly winning 4–0 and effectively closing the tie in the first leg. It was hardly the only time De Zerbi’s Brighton had been humiliated in a similar way, as even the eventually relegated Luton Town had beaten Brighton 4–0 a couple weeks prior to the Roma tie, but, again, that doesn’t mean that it wasn’t a highly impressive performance by De Rossi against another strong coach. As for Roma’s tie against Milan, my perhaps biased summary is that Milan were shockingly poor but Roma were simultaneously extremely fortunate to win the tie by 4–1 on aggregate. In any case, it’s ultimately hard for me to criticize Roma for how they played over these two matches. Against Bayer Leverkusen, Roma would leak chances and ultimately lose 4–2 on aggregate, but I was impressed by their attacking potency against one of the best teams in the world, as well as their ability to recover from the 2–0 loss at the Olimpico by initially going 2–0 up in the first half of the second leg. Furthermore, Roma put in some respectable-great performances against the likes of Cagliari, Monza, Torino, Udinese and Juventus in the Serie A.
So, what is all of this to say? Well, I absolutely want to denounce the narrative of Daniele De Rossi having transformed this team for the better. It has drastically changed in its approach, but in terms of the level of performances, it has only regressed—from a level that was already highly underwhelming. So, what are the actual issues with De Rossi’s Roma so far? Well, this is already an eight-minute read and I haven’t even really gotten into Roma’s situation and the mercato yet, so I’m not going to make a detailed tactical analysis, but there are some clear issues with De Rossi’s Roma that are worth listing. In short, they are are ambitious yet highly ineffective and inefficient in possession, and they leak chances while not being particularly dangerous going forward. Their press is often disjointed, but more importantly they often concede dangerous turnovers in possession, which I believe is the main reason for their defensive issues. Meanwhile, their poor performances have been masked by a continued proficiency from set pieces, some heroic performances from Mile Svilar in goal, and other margins going in their favor.
In my opinion, Roma should not have hired De Rossi permanently, and they should definitely not have offered him a three-year contract, however I don’t think it’s a disastrous decision necessarily. De Rossi’s poor start at Roma worries me, but it doesn’t have to be a sign of what’s to come, and the main reason why is that the players are generally 1) not very good) 2) not necessarily suited towards De Rossi’s style of play. It has to be emphasized that it is incredibly difficult to take over a flawed squad in the middle of the season, drastically change its style of play, and then have it perform at a satisfying level. It’s hard not to think of Thiago Motta, who took over Bologna after the 2022–23 season had already begun, and while he changed the team’s style of play and the results after the World Cup were quite good, Bologna would rank 14th in expected points in the span they were managed by Motta, and post-World Cup they would still rank 14th in this metric despite only winning two points less than Milan in this span (via Understat). Yet, this past season, Thiago Motta has emerged as one of the most promising managers in world football, after leading Bologna to the European Cup/Champions League for just the second time in club history. Will there be a similar effect with De Rossi? Well, to an extent, that is a requirement, in terms of the team improving considerably in its first full season. Certainly, Roma cannot continue like this, and I also don’t believe they will; it has to go up from here. Still, it will not be easy to rebuild this Roma squad—as we will get to soon—and De Rossi will have to continue to fight an uphill battle.
Squeezing water from a stone
We have established that De Rossi’s struggles so far largely derive from the flaws of his squad. How do you solve that? Easy, on the transfer market! Well, here is where it gets difficult; Roma are in a very, very bad situation. Again, one issue is that their squad just isn’t very good, but another issue is that it’s also very hard to improve on. To skip ahead a little bit, Roma will most likely be able to work with a very limited budget, meaning that in a lot of cases it will be De Rossi’s responsibility to maximize the outcome of the club’s signings, which definitely won’t be a simple task. But what is the issue for Roma in regards to the mercato? Well, it starts with the financial situation, which is hard to get a precise grasp on from the outside looking in, but all signs indicate that Roma are not thriving financially. First of all, despite their underwhelming squad, they currently have the third highest net payroll in the Serie A (via Capology). Additionally, over the last three seasons Roma have had a positive net spend of €12.3m, which, if nothing else, shows that they have very little investing power on the transfer market. This net spend is likely partly the result of FFP issues, but it’s hard to foresee whether or not that is an issue which will no longer be present this upcoming summer. For the sake of this article, I am going to assume that Roma will essentially be able to invest what they earn from player sales this summer. In this sense, they are not unique, but the issue becomes apparent when you take a look at their assets. This past season, Roma were the third oldest team in Serie A—weighed by playing time rather than being based on the average of the squad. As is well-known, players tend to decline in value as they get older, and this absolutely applies to Roma. We will go through their squad in detail soon, but to summarize the state of their squad; Roma don’t have a single clear standout asset, which is extremely concerning. The team is generally old, mediocre and thereby not very valuable, and while there could theoretically have existed some valuable young players who lurk in the squad, this isn’t really the case for Roma. As touched on in my Roma articles from last Fall, one of the most disastrous aspects of the Mourinho-Pinto era was the negligence of what was actually quite a promising core of young players from the Roma youth sector. Mourinho did not only fail to develop these players, but he and Pinto ultimately had almost all of them sold for rather cheap on top of that. The players include Riccardo Calafiori, Cristian Volpato, Filippo Missori, Giacomo Faticanti, Felix Afena-Gyan (whose development was mostly ruined as opposed to Roma not giving him a chance) and Benjamin Tahirović. This is an issue that comes with many consequences. First of all, it means that almost all of Roma’s squad is made up of players either in their prime or on the decline, rather than a substantial part of it being made up of players who are set to grow. Furthermore, the failed development and eventual cheap sales of these aforementioned young players has meant that 1) Roma lack valuable assets right now 2) it will be significantly more difficult for Roma to adopt a sell-to-buy strategy, which would otherwise help them financially. In any case, Florent Ghisolfi will have to try his best, and we will take a look at how he could approach this mercato next. If he succeeds on the first step, it should be all up from there, but that is a big “if”.
Squad assessment—Keep, loan, sell
I think the most efficient way of painting a picture of how Roma’s squad looks; why it’s problematic; what they should do with it this summer, is by putting each of their players into one of three categories: keep, loan or sell… or, well, a few more categories, due to the presence of players who have an expiring contract or are currently loaned to the club. For the players I think should be sold, I have come up with a projected transfer fee, which obviously won’t necessarily be accurate, but again, some sort of baseline is needed for this article.
- Mile Svilar: Keep
The one thing Daniele De Rossi has unquestionably done extremely well at Roma so far, has been giving Mile Svilar the starting role in goal. As you are about to discover, this has made a monumental difference for Roma, because Mile Svilar has performed at quite a high level despite only being 23 years old, and for the time being he seems like a legitimate long-term option for Roma. If that weren’t the case, Roma would have to search the market for a starting goalkeeper, and not only would it be difficult to find a worthy candidate, but it would also be expensive. What a blessing! - Rui Patrício: Let walk
Rui Patrício’s contract expires this summer. He is bad and Roma need to forget about him. - Pietro Boer: Keep
Pietro Boer probably isn’t good enough to be a backup goalkeeper, but I would keep him as a third option, I suppose. - Evan Ndicka: Keep
Ndicka was just signed, which is one of multiple reasons why selling him probably just isn’t realistic. He has also grown under De Rossi, after an underwhelming 2022–23 season with Eintracht Frankfurt and a disappointing start to his time at Roma under Mourinho. - Gianluca Mancini: Keep
I’m still not a big fan of Gianluca Mancini, but there’s probably not a significant market for him. Additionally, he’s developing into a bandiera-esque figure at Roma, and I don’t think he’s necessarily bad either. Whether or not Roma have a choice, it’s probably best to keep him. - Dean Huijsen: Don’t sign
Dean Huijsen was only brought in on a dry loan, and although Juve seem shockingly open to selling him, I seriously doubt Roma have the funds necessary to bring him in on a permanent basis. - Diego Llorente: Don’t sign
I’m not actively against the idea of Diego Llorente being signed on a permanent basis. He is better than Chris Smalling—who we will get to next—and the value of his option to buy for €5m isn’t bad, but given he’s 30 years old and frankly isn’t very good, I think it’s just not worth it. If the sale of Chris Smalling were possible, I would sign Llorente, however… - Chris Smalling: Keep
I just don’t think Roma have much choice. Smalling turns 35 in November and only has a year left on his contract, so I think Roma will simply have to live with him eating up a good chunk of their wages and not giving them the profile they want in defense for another year. Luckily, they already have two more suitable options at center-back, and I think it’s possible for them to bring in another center-back on top of that. - Angeliño: Sign permanently (€5m)
Personally, I wouldn’t sign Angeliño on a permanent basis because he’s frankly one of the worst full-backs in the league, however it seems like a done deal at this point, and Roma do need someone to be their backup left-back (assuming they plan on signing another left-back; let’s hope for their sake). - Leonardo Spinazzola: Let walk
I would probably have chosen to bring back Spinazzola as a stopgap depth option, despite his clear limits nowadays, however it seems like Roma have elected to sign Angeliño permanently instead. - Rasmus Kristensen: Don’t sign
Rasmus Kristensen has been poor at Roma and it would surprise me if they brought him back on a permanent basis. - Rick Karsdorp: Sell (€4m)
It’s clear that Rick Karsdorp should be sold, as he hasn’t been an important player for Roma in a while. Whether or not they will be able to sell him is another question. I think a sale to a Dutch team for a few million Euros is realistic. Karsdorp used to have a strong reputation, but the fact that he’s 29 years old and only has a year left on his contract should decrease his value significantly. - Zeki Çelik: Keep
Similarly to Angeliño, I don’t think Zeki Çelik is very good, but I think Roma will keep him and they probably don’t have much choice anyway. At 27 years old, and with him having shown very little at Roma, there likely wouldn’t be a significant market for Çelik, and any money Roma could make for him would likely not make a massive difference anyway—they would also have to replace him. - Bryan Cristante: Keep
If there were strong interest in Bryan Cristante from other clubs, I would unquestionably sell him for at least €15m, but I just don’t see that being the case. He has not played at a high level since the departure of Paulo Fonseca from Roma, and while he has remained in the Italian national team, I doubt he’s impressed teams abroad, whereas there likely won’t be a club in Italy that is both interested in signing him and has the funds to pull it off. - Leandro Paredes: Keep
I’m not a huge fan of Leandro Paredes, but Roma were able to sign him on a bargain for a reason, and should simply pat themselves on the back for doing so, because while Paredes has been a solid signing from a value perspective, it’s not like his resale value is particularly high. Sure, he’s getting a little bit old and he’s a flawed player, but he is a good Serie A level midfielder who will work for Roma for the time being. A long-term upgrade is unquestionably necessary, however. - Edoardo Bove: Keep
In the aforementioned Roma article in which I went through what I would do this summer if I were them, I advocated for the sale of Edoardo Bove due to his somewhat limited profile; positionally he functions as more of a box-to-box, but he only really stands out for his defensive attributes. Well, I’m still not exactly a fan of Bove, but I do think he can become a good player in the long-term, and I also highly doubt there’s a market for him in the first place. You know how it is: Italian football players rarely leave their country, and I don’t think Bove has impressed to the point where clubs abroad will be interested in him anyway. A sale seems unrealistic, and I think it’s best Roma try to figure out what Bove can be for them in the long-term. - Houssem Aouar: Sell (€9m)
There’s not much need to dwell on what could have been in regards to Houssem Aouar’s career. While he’s even showed a lot of potential since he stopped being considered one of the premier young midfielders in the world, it seems as though his stint at Roma has been the nail in the coffin for his reputation… well, to an extent. He’s not a bad player by any means, but you’d like for him to be better when he does play given how injury-prone he is. Roma signed him on a free transfer last year, and I think they’d be happy to let him go at a profit, with a fee in the region of €10m. Will they be able to? I’m quite confident that there would be a number of French clubs interested in signing Aouar. Since Roma already have Cristante, Bove and Pellegrini, I think Aouar just isn’t necessary to keep, especially when you consider he’s highly injury-prone and hardly a game-changer when he does play. Additionally, he is—believe it or not—one of Roma’s most valuable financial assetes, or at least so I would anticipate. - Renato Sanches: Don’t sign
- Nicola Zalewski: Sell (€12m)
I still believe Nicola Zalewski should be sold this summer, but I do worry about how easy that will be to pull off. After all, although he represents Poland, he is born and raised in Italy, and while it’s stereotypical to simply assume that he doesn’t want to leave Italy, it’s a possibility that has to be considered. More importantly, though, Zalewski’s profile is quite odd, partly as he’s too poor defensively to be a full-back yet not good enough going forward to be a winger. Still, I think there’s a good chance that there’s a market for him this summer, and that Roma will be able to offload him for more than €10m. However, that’s hardly life-changing money, and it’s no guarantee that Roma are able to sell him for that much anyway. - Lorenzo Pellegrini: Keep
I think the idea of Pellegrini being sold to raise funds should at least be discussed, because he might be Roma’s only true standout asset aside from Paulo Dybala. On the other hand, given he’s Italian, romanista since childhood, about to turn 28 years old, and has struggled to perform consistently in recent seasons, I doubt there’s a significant market for him, and I doubt he would even want to leave to begin with. - Tommaso Baldanzi: Keep
Tommaso Baldanzi was just signed by Roma in January and is maybe their most promising young player, so of course he should stay. - Stephan El Shaarawy: Keep
El Shaarawy isn’t a valuable financial asset for countless reasons, and rather functions as very valuable depth to Roma. - Paulo Dybala: Keep… I guess
I have some issues with Paulo Dybala, and they mainly revolve around his physical state, in numerous capacities. First of all, he is severely injury-prone, which means that even if you think he’s an exceptionally gifted player, what he can give you over the span of a full season remains limited. However, beyond that, I think his injury issues have led to his physical decline, and his physical declined has led to him now being a very flawed player anyway. I think he’s good but unexceptional in buildup, and in the final third he largely relies on great finishing to be productive. However, is selling him an option for Roma? Well, he has a €12m release clause applicable to foreign clubs anyway, so it’s not really Roma’s choice. If there is significant interest in Dybala, he will mostly likely be sold, but for the time being I don’t see it. If not for his release clause, I would have been very open to selling him for at least €15m, not only due to his flaws and injury concerns, but also his high wages and his age, but as I mentioned it’s not really up to Roma and I don’t think he will leave. - Tammy Abraham: Sell (€24m)
If Roma have one outstanding asset who they can make a good bit of money from, that player is Tammy Abraham, but man, I wonder how big of a market there will be for him this summer. And I understand that it may sound like I’m repeating myself, but this is the problem: Roma’s assets severely lack any sort of value. Going back to Tammy, I have previously advocated for Roma to keep him, because in the few matches he’s played since returning from his ACL-tear I’ve been relatively impressed with him, but I now realize that the reason why Roma need to sell him is not because of his own limits. Given Tammy has practically done nothing this season due to the aforementioned injury, as well as the fact that he even struggled in the prior season, scoring just eight goals in Serie A that year, I don’t know if teams will be bending over backwards to secure his signature this summer. It’s not just the fact that he hasn’t shown he’s a great player over the last two years, but also the concern about how his most recent injury will have affected him physically? Personally, I feel as though he’s recovered quite well, based on a limited sample size, but will professional football clubs be convinced, to the point where they’re willing to spend tens of millions of Euros on him? Maybe not, but I’m actually relatively optimistic about Roma being able to sell Tammy Abraham this summer. I think a player of his pedigree would be highly attractive to a number of Premier League clubs in need of a striker, specifically. Perhaps the concern is more so about the transfer fee. I still think Roma have enough leverage to get more than €20m for Tammy Abraham, but I suppose time will tell. - Romelu Lukaku: Don’t sign
Lukaku has been highly inconsistent at Roma, and signing him permanently would be extremely expensive for the club. In contrast, getting him off the wage bill will be a positive for Roma from a financial perspective. - Sardar Azmoun: Don’t sign
- Andrea Belotti: Keep
Andrea Belotti is not very good anymore, but signing a backup striker would potentially be too expensive, so—assuming Fiorentina don’t sign him permanently—I would keep him for one final season, as a necessary stopgap, before moving on in 2025. - Eldor Shomurodov: Sell (€4m)
Tiago Pinto signed this guy for €19.6m in 2021 (via Transfermarkt), and now he can’t even secure a meaningful role in a relegation-battling team. It’s no guarantee that Roma are able to permanently offload him this summer, but it shouldn’t be considered impossible if they just lower their asking price to a few million Euros. - Marash Kumbulla: Sell (€5m)
Tiago Pinto signed this guy for €26.5m in 2021, and now he’s not good enough to secure a meaningful role in a relegated team. Since Kumbulla is still young, I don’t think unrealistic for Roma to be able to sell him for a few million Euros, but he hasn’t really shown anything of note in quite some time, so he’s a really bad asset. - Ebrima Darfoe:
Just showing I didn’t forget about this guy, but let’s be honest to ourselves…
Budget & positions of need
So, having established who should be sold and what Roma could receive for these players, let’s clarify what the projected, estimated transfer budget will be for Roma in this article, and what positions they will need to address. If you add the aforementioned transfer fees together and subtract by €5m—due to the option to buy for Angeliño being activated—you get €53m. As mentioned, we will estimate that Roma will more or less be able to spend what they receive from player sales this summer, giving them a budget of roughly €53m. As for the positions of need, Roma will need a backup goalkeeper, a starting left-back, a starting right-back, a center-back who can compete for a starting role, a holding midfielder who can become the starter in the long-term (if not immediately), a starting left-winger, and a starting striker. Those are a lot of needs to address with just about €53m, but I think I have found a viable solution.
Backup goalkeeper: Alessio Cragno (€2m)
Backup goalkeeper is not a need of great importance, but every team needs to have a somewhat reliable backup goalkeeper, and Roma probably don’t—given Pietro Boer’s one career senior appearance came in a match from about 3.5 years ago. Since the free agent market is poor, Roma should be very happy to bring in Alessio Cragno—who used to be quite good—for what would presumably be a very low fee based on what we’ve seen in recent years. And, I can absolutely see it happening too.
Right-back: Nadir Zortea (€6m)
Roma really need a starting right-back this summer, and while they have been confirmed to be interested in Raoul Bellanova, he should be out of their price range now that the club has officially failed to qualify for the Champions League next season. If we look at “similar players” to Bellanova on FBref, however, we can find another Italian right-back who hasn’t played too far away from Rome in recent months: Nadir Zortea. What Roma need from their right-back is mainly someone who can help them going forward. A large reason for this is that Roma’s two right wingers (Paulo Dybala and Tommaso Baldanzi) aren’t natural touchline wingers, but rather attacking midfielders who mainly thrive in the number 10 role in a 4–2–3–1, but who best fit a half-space-oriented role on the right, when deployed in a 4–3–3. To compensate for their lack of wide threat on the right hand side, Roma could really use a full-back who is adept at carrying the ball, taking on defenders, and creating chances from out wide. Zortea fits that mould beautifully, as we’ve seen during his loan at Frosinone.
Above we can see Zortea’s heatmap this season (via SofaScore) and it shows that he’s both offensive-minded and mostly prominent out wide, rather than in more central areas. Admittedly, he is a player with certain limits, especially in terms of buildup play and defending. The latter aspect makes a holding midfielder with stronger defensive characteristics than Leandro Paredes an even bigger need, because while Paredes is a good tempo-setting regista, he often leaves a lot to be desired out of possession. Even then, the harsh truth is that Zortea likely won’t develop into a long-term starter because of the aforementioned issues, but as a stopgap I think he’s excellent and gives Roma exactly what they want for the time being. Even in a team that was ultimately relegated, Zortea provided five assists in just 14.0 90s for Frosinone this past season, which shows how dangerous of a creator he is. The underlying numbers were strong as well, with Zortea ranking in the 82nd percentile for npxG+xAG per 90 among full-backs in the top five leagues, which may not seem exceptional given his profile, but when you account for the team he’s played in, I think it is. Moreover, Zortea ranks in the 74th percentile for progressive carries per 90 and the 89th percentile for successful take-ons per 90 (via FBref).
This summer, Zortea is set to return to Atalanta following his loan at Frosinone, and given Atalanta currently seem set at right wing-back, I think they would be willing to sell Zortea for rather cheap. I think €6m is a realistic fee, and I believe this would be a bargain for Roma.
Center-back: Oumar Solet (€10m)
In defense, I think Roma need more of a defensive anchor-profile in contrast to Gianluca Mancini and Evan Ndicka, and I think Red Bull Salzburg’s Oumar Solet fits this profile very well. For me, he’s quite clearly the best center-back option on the market for Roma, as I don’t anticipate they would face strong competition for the signing, while his contract also expires next year, making €10m a realistic fee in my opinion. Although he plays in a weaker European league, Solet does have experience playing in the Champions League and Europa League, and he should be ready for the transition to a top five league. At 1.92 m tall and weighing in at 88 kg, it’s not hard to see why Solet is such a solid defender. He’s a physical specimen with surprisingly good balance, and he uses strength, length (also long legs, aside from his height) and defensive fundamentals to disrupt both in and out of the box. Indeed, Solet is quite capable as an imposing ball-winner, but he is perhaps even more capable in the box, where his height, physicality and defensive instincts really help him. In possession, how well he can fare in the top five leagues will depend on how good the coach he will play under is, and this is where De Rossi will really be put to the test. Solet has shown to be capable at everything from ball-retention, to ball-carrying to line-breaking passing, but will he be able to hold his own in these areas on a week-to-week basis in the top five leagues? Under a coach like Luciano Spalletti, I think he would be able to take that step. As for
De Rossi, we will simply have to see. In any case, I think Solet would fit very well at Roma, and if De Rossi isn’t able to develop a player like him, I honestly just don’t think this project will go anywhere anyway. Solet has the potential to be both a defensive anchor and a reliable ball-player for Roma, which would be truly special value for just €10m, especially with the financial situation Roma are in. Furthermore, Solet could perhaps also play a role in a French culture being established at Roma, due to Ghisolfi now being the sporting director. It may seem trivial and/or gimmicky, but to create an environment in which players feel comfortable and can thrive, you don’t just need a great coach but also a culture. Having players from similar backgrounds can certainly help with this, and what Giovanni Sartori has built at Bologna is just one great example of this.
Left-back: Juan Miranda (free)
Roma really need a starting left-back, because Angeliño is far from good enough. However, due to the financial constraints, Roma will be tapping into the market of free agents here, bringing in Juan Miranda. The Spanish left-back previously seemed destined for a move to Milan, but everything indicates that they have pulled out of the race to sign him… well, if there is much of a race to begin with. Right now, it doesn’t seem like Miranda is hot property on the free agent market, which would give Roma the perfect opportunity to make a move. For what it’s worth, there’s a reason why Miranda looks set to become a free agent this summer, but for a free signing who will only be a stopgap anyway, Roma can’t ask for much more. Standing at 1.85 m tall and weighing in at 76 kg, Miranda is a very respectable defensive full-back both in and out of the box, and while he’s a average at best in buildup, he’s better than Nadir Zortea (at least in earlier buildup), and his long-range passing is very strong. Most importantly, though, Miranda is a reliable final third threat, who might even have been underutilized in this area at Real Betis. Miranda still ranks in the 80th percentile for npxG+xAG per 90 among full-backs (via FBref), and sure enough he has shown proficiency at everything from chance-creation, late runs into the box, and shooting from distance. Miranda would not be a game-changer, but an excellent stopgap and a great signing from a financial perspective. Similarly to Solet, he could also be a nice culture fit at the club, seeing as Roma already have two Spanish-speaking players in *our* plans, in Angeliño and Leandro Paredes—a nice bonus.
Holding midfielder: Daniel Boloca (€8m)
I’ve sung Daniel Boloca’s praises time and time again on my platforms, and I still think that whoever signs him could get the steal of the summer. He is not a space-eating holding midfielder who gives you an alternative profile to Leandro Paredes, but rather a similar profile who gives you a lot more security out of possession. Boloca has never been that sort of defensive anchor, but despite his somewhat skinny frame, he is a very fundamentally solid defender whose positional awareness impresses me a lot on top of that. This is partly backed up by his output, as he may only rank around average for tackles per 90 among midfielders, but he ranks in the 87th percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled; similarly he ranks slightly above average for aerial duels won per 90, but in the 72nd percentile for aerial duel win rate (via FBref). Indeed he is somewhat skinny, but his height of 1.88 m helps him cope physically. Furthermore, the aforementioned characteristics are more or less what you want from your holding midfielder under a coach like De Rossi, and in terms of fit, Boloca impresses even more for what he does in possession. Boloca’s tall yet skinny frame gives him a combination of physical edge and mobility which makes him extremely press-resistant in all kinds of situations. Even in a bad infrastructure; a team that finished 19th in Serie A, Boloca’s output was quite impressive this past season. Boloca ranks in the 90th percentile for pass completion among midfielders, around average for progressive passes per 90 and progressive carries per 90 respectively, and in the 88th percentile for successful take-ons per 90 (via FBref). However, it’s hard to grasp just how press-resistant Boloca is without having watched him play. In this area, I sincerely believe he is one of the best players in the world—his close control is nothing short of exceptional, and I think his output in such a poor team speaks volumes. In fact, while Boloca doesn’t stand out in terms of progressive actions according to the output, I’m willing to bet this would change with a change of infrastructure. If Roma want security in and out of possession, Boloca would be a dream signing. Given Sassuolo are now in Serie B and there still doesn’t seem to be a ton of interest in Boloca, I think Roma would be able to sign him for about €8m, which would be an unparalleled home run.
Striker: Thijs Dallinga (€15m)
Thijs Dallinga is by far my favorite striker option for Roma this summer. Dallinga has his limits, but Roma seems like exactly the kind of club that could justify taking a punt on him, as they don’t need someone with an extremely high ceiling. In Dallinga’s first full season of senior football, he scored an incredible 30 non-penalty goals in 36.2 90s in the Eerste Divisie—which is obviously a far cry form the Serie A in terms of quality, but Dallinga would subsequently go on to adapt to the top five leagues fairly well in France. Sure enough, he has hit double digit non-penalty goals in each of his first two seasons at Toulouse, despite them being a lower mid-table caliber team. His output is not exceptional from a productivity standpoint, but when you consider the caliber of team he plays in, and when you watch him play, you begin to see the potential. In a very strange way, Dallinga plays as though he’s at least 1.90 m tall, and although his possession-based output is unimpressive, I really like his holdup- and linkup play. In this area, Dallinga is extremely good at shielding off defenders and also at pulling off simple, yet intelligent flicks. He is oddly reminiscent of Benjamin Šeško in these aspects, which is funny as the former is 15 cm shorter and 21 kg lighter. In any case, the fact that Dallinga is just 1.8 m tall and weighs 64 kg makes me believe in his technical upside; it just makes sense given his physical profile, even though he has this weird stiffness about him that makes him look much bigger than he is. Him being smaller than he looks carries onto his activity in the box, where he is an excellent, complete target man despite his size; fantastic on the end of crosses and cutbacks in particular. I think all Dallinga needs to become a prolific striker is an environment in which he can create more scoring opportunities for himself, and Roma, to an extent, offer just that.
To De Rossi’s credit, I do see some serious offensive potential in his team as long as he’s given the right players. That’s partly referring to full-backs who can create in the final third, but it’s also referring to a striker who can be a serious threat in the box. Dallinga turns 24 in August, meaning he’s still yet to hit his prime, and that is the type of player need to be targeting. I see this as a move that makes Roma stronger and younger at the same time. Given Dallinga is yet to still have his big breakout, I think Roma would be able to pick him up for about €15m; another potential bargain.
Nicolò Cambiaghi (€7m)
Nicolò Cambiaghi is the one player I endorsed Roma to sign in my previous article focused on Roma’s 2024 summer mercato, who I still think they should sign. Admittedly, Cambiaghi is raw and this is a signing that would really put Daniele De Rossi’s coaching to the test, but again, I think he’s going to have to develop players of this caliber if this project is going to succeed. A fast winger who can be a threat in behind is one of Roma’s biggest needs, in fact this is something which De Rossi has alluded to himself. As much as Cambiaghi’s output over the last year has been unimpressive, I think he fits this profile quite well. After all, there’s a very respectable excuse for his poor output: he played for one of the worst teams in the league; one which would have been relegated if Roma had put in a half-decent performance against them on the last day, but alas…
Cambiaghi’s output in 2022–23 is still not particularly good, but here again the context of is team is a viable excuse as Empoli still weren’t very good back then, and the output is a lot better than it’s been in 23–24; demonstrating his qualities more clearly. As his output partly highlights, Cambiaghi isn’t always the most technically refined, and this along with his size means he doesn’t have a very high ceiling, but he also possesses clear technical upside: he ranked in the 91st percentile among wingers and attacking midfielders in Serie A for progressive carries per 90, and the 66th percentile for successful take-ons per 90 (via FBref). Being 1.73 m tall and weighing 74 kg, Cambiaghi is quite a unique player; short and stocky at the same time. Truthfully, it’s not an ideal physical profile. His stockiness makes him a solid but limited player in buildup, while his height limits how dangerous of a box threat he can be. Notably, creativity is not exactly Cambiaghi’s strong suit. Instead, his odd physical profile gives him a similarly odd tactical profile, which sees him able to carry the ball and take on defenders quite well—but not extremely well, and despite his size he is ultimately quite a dangerous box threat. Regarding his box threat and movement off the ball, he did rank in the 74th percentile for npxG per 90 among wingers and attacking midfielders in Serie A (via FBref), which is not good when you consider his competition and the fact that he doesn’t offer much more in the final third, but when you consider the team he played for, I think it is quite good. In fact, from what I’ve seen, Cambiaghi has shown to be very strong at getting into dangerous positions in the box plenty of times over the past two seasons, although that isn’t reflected in the output. On top of that, he may have struggled at, well, everything this season; not just amassing a measly two goal contributions in Serie A, but also underperforming his xG. However, I do think he has the potential to be a very good finisher, who merely struggled with a lack of opportunities this past season. When he does get opportunities, his strong ball-striking often shows, and this is likely attributed to his stocky physical profile which should help him generate more power behind his shots.
All in all, many will look at a winger who amassed a pretty appalling two goal contributions this past season and cringe, and I understand it. However, I believe Cambiaghi has the potential to be a very good Serie A winger, and with the budget Roma are working with I don’t think there are many more players who fit what they need at left wing. They need speed, directness and threat in behind, and I think Cambiaghi provides that and more. Additionally, his struggles this past season should give Roma some leverage if they are to make a move for Cambiaghi, and I definitely think he could be available for less than €10m this summer. Again: this is the type of talent Daniele De Rossi will have to develop if this project is going to work out.
Depth chart:
Expenditure: €48m
Income: €58m
Net spend: €10m
Where do Roma go from here?
As much as Roma are in a mess right now, I think the potential solution to their problems is quite simple. The hard part is actually pulling it off. Again, their team is old; not good; lacking of assets and the club is not in a good financial situation. The solution to that is to generate as much profits you can, and reinvest it in young players who you can sell for more significant profits in the future. And honestly, I don’t think it’s too bold to say that identifying good young talents is not necessarily too hard—at least when it comes to players who simply have potential. The challenge as far as that concern, more so applies to how ready the young players in question are, and just how good they can become. More importantly, though, the biggest challenge does not pertain to sporting director Florent Ghisolfi, but rather head coach Daniele De Rossi. That challenge is to actually develop the players. We’ve established that Roma have been a very flawed team under De Rossi so far, so one challenge is to actually produce results, but I think an even bigger one is to create an environment in which young players thrive regardless of their background and/or experience. If you can achieve that, your financial situation will improve considerably, although even at that point De Rossi will face his next big challenge, which is to maximize the potential of the team and get it into the Champions League and beyond. Now, do I believe Daniele De Rossi will achieve all of this? Honestly, if I had to take a stance, I would say no. First of all, I have serious concerns about how good of a tactician he is, even if I give him a bit of a pass for his poor results so far. Beyond that, though, he hasn’t shown much one way or another in terms of player development so far, and I’m not sure good player development will cut it. If Roma just want to get back to where they belong (the Champions League more or less), they will partly need good squad-planning and talent identification from Florent Ghisolfi. More importantly, though, they will need Daniele De Rossi to establish an environment akin to what Thiago Motta established at Bologna; in which a player like Riccardo Calafiori can arrive after having just played his first full season of senior football, in Switzerland at that, and establish himself as one of the best defenders in Serie A within the span of a year. Otherwise, Roma’s financial situation might improve, but their team will likely remain quite unimpressive (De Rossi’s actual ability to produce remain a question mark in my eyes), and while that would constitute as progress, it’s not really what you want if you’re Roma. Nonetheless, I think it’s clear that De Rossi has a promising tactical vision, and this along with his well-known leadership means I absolutely can’t count him out. Roma gave him a three-year contract, so they certainly believe in him. Let’s see if it will pay off.
