Napule È
Naples is one of the most special sports cities in the world, in fact I don’t even like describing it as a sports city; rather, Naples is one of the most culturally special cities in Europe in and of itself, and the football club Società Sportiva Calcio Napoli is just a symbol of the city and its people. It’s hard to find any sports institution that embodies its place of origin and everything that comes with it to the same extent as Napoli. Maybe that’s why, for better or worse, it can never be simple for them. Naples, the city, is chaotic and multifaceted; no one has ever put it better than hometown hero Pino Daniele in his quintessential ode to the city, “Napule È”, which revolves around the lyrics “Napule è mille culure, Napule è mille paure”; “Naples is a million colors, Naples is a million fears”. The city is constantly plagued by volatility; for better or worse, again. It thereby goes without saying that the football club is the same. Last year, Napoli experienced a historic triumph, with its third ever scudetto; its first in 33 years; its first ever without the help of Diego Maradona. The profound significance of the victory is hard to describe with words, and the celebrations that followed are rarely ever paralleled anywhere in the entire world of sports. Just a year later, however, Napoli would set a negative record by becoming Italy’s worst defending champions of all time, beating out 1949 — 50 Torino, whose previous scudetto-winning team had literally perished in a plane crash. That’s heaven and hell for you; that’s Napoli for you… Except, it doesn’t end there, because Napoli are still alive of course, and with the moves they’ve made so far this summer it looks like volatility is set to continue to define them. Aurelio De Laurentiis, one of the most volatile men in all of football, has been paired with Antonio Conte, maybe the most volatile manager in European football. Indeed, there is nothing more Napule than that.
Yeah, it’s for the worse… I think?
Napoli hiring Antonio Conte as their new manager is beautifully poetic, but I’m not going to sugarcoat it; I don’t think it’s a great move. In fact the description above is somewhat contradictory, because from a football-perspective this move actually isn’t very Napoli-like at all. Ironically enough, despite the volatility that has plagued the city and its football club in the ADL-era — above all — this has been the most successful era in the history of the club overall. How does this relate to Antonio Conte? Well, by far the two most successful managers of this era have been Maurizio Sarri and Luciano Spalletti; two managers who have commonly been criticized for “not being winners”, and who favor a highly possession-focused game. In contrast, Conte famously described himself as a “serial winner” in 2018, and his football is largely seen as more pragmatic and goal-driven. This is particularly significant given Napoli had the chance to hire a manager who perfectly fit the former mould this summer: Vincenzo Italiano. Napoli had tried to hire Italiano last year, but with him having had a year left on his contract, they were unsuccessful in doing so. Now, with the arrival of a new, young sporting director from Juventus (Giovanni Manna), and with Italiano having been set to become a free agent, Napoli had the chance to return to stability — for Napoli standards, that is. Alas, with Conte having the CV he has and the people of Naples being desperate for a charismatic champion who can make them dream, Aurelio De Laurentiis just couldn’t resist. It’s hard to foresee exactly how this will pan out for Napoli. What I know is that Napoli are going to be as chaotic as ever as long as Conte is in charge. What I think is that this isn’t the type of chaos/volatility that I, at the end of the day, positively associate with Napoli. The Napoli I’ve grown up to know is one that is really good; that plays beautiful football; that ultimately never wins anything, much to the fury and despair of its people, and even when it does win, the ultras are at war with the club president. That’s a version of Napoli that somehow glaringly succeeds on the football front, while not betraying its inherent identity.
The main reason why I dislike the appointment of Antonio Conte for Napoli is actually quite simple: the purpose of the move is to fix the team and win in the short-term, but you don’t need Conte to achieve the former, and I strongly doubt Conte will achieve the latter. Last February, I wrote about why I didn’t think Conte was a good option for Milan, and in this article I went in depth about why I think Conte is a very misunderstood and overestimated manager. It’s clear that he has the reputation of being an extremely strong man-manager who is thereby able to significantly raise the floor of any team, with his track record even showing that he is almost always able to win titles in that same process. However, I really dislike this illustration of Conte — mostly because of how conditioned his strong track record has been, as well as how often his failures and limits are glossed over. When you only look at what Conte achieved at Juve (as a manager) and Inter, this might seem like a phenomenal move for Napoli. However, not only was there a lot of “luck” involved in Conte’s success at those clubs, those stints also just do not guarantee that Conte will achieve something similar at Napoli. This is an entirely new situation with new circumstances. So, while Napoli’s squad certainly shouldn’t be underestimated, I seriously doubt it will rank higher than fourth best in the Serie A going into next season, and on top of that I don’t think Conte is even close to the best manager in the league. Conte’s teams have consistently struggled to produce particularly impressive underlying numbers as long as they’ve been available, and I think this partly shows his flaws. More importantly, though, I just don’t know what to make of Conte as a coach, if you remove all the storylines and narratives that have been attached to him throughout his managerial career. He’s not exactly a defensive specialist — as his teams tend to be rather volatile in that regard, and the same really goes for their attack — as Conte tends to be highly transition-reliant in that area. At this point, I think of Conte as a coach with a low ceiling, but who can give you a significant short-term boost if necessary. The question is how necessary such a solution is nowadays, though. This question is particularly relevant considering the state Conte has frequently left his teams in; the squad often flawed, aging and inflexible; the club often suffering financially. In fact, we’ve seen this linked with each of Conte’s last three managerial stints, which make up 75% of the major managerial jobs he’s had in club football.
The mercato
When it comes to the mocked mercato of this article, the perspective will be more predictive rather than idealistic, if that makes sense. I almost always try to find a balance between realism and my personal opinion when it comes to these mock mercato’s, however this time I’m going to make an exception. It might seem inconsistent, but I think the reasoning is ultimately quite simple: if I’m taking on the hypothetical role of a sporting director for this article, that role might not matter anyway if my manager is Antonio Conte. Conte is someone who almost always has a significant influence over the mercato of the club he manages, and that seems to be set to continue to be the case at Napoli as well. On top of that, I fundamentally disagree with the decision to hire Antonio Conte, and thereby I also disagree with most of the signings that Antonio Conte would want; if I were to suggest a number of signings on my own accord, those signings likely wouldn’t align with Conte’s vision. Despite all of this, I have to spoil things and say that all of what I have just written makes sense in theory, but the appointment of Giovanni Manna as sporting director has seemingly offered a balance and progressive element to the Conte-influenced recruitment, which we haven’t seen before. To some extent, this mock mercato shows a Conte-mercato influenced by philosophies that align with my own, but with that being the case there isn’t much for me to change much anyway. I won’t nail everything about the upcoming Napoli mercato, but I should be able to depict it fairly accurately.
Aside from this, we also have to clear up some major details before going through my projected signings for this summer mercato for Napoli. First of all, Napoli have averaged a net spend of about €-12.66m since their first post-pandemic season (via Transfermarkt, roughly meaning that they essentially spend what they earn. As clarified in the first article of this series, I know this is a vast oversimplification of how the transfer market works in practice, but for the sake of this article we’re going to need a baseline for what Napoli will be able to do this summer financially. On that note, we’ll say that Napoli essentially cannot spend more than what they earn. Given they’re coming off a disastrous season which will inevitably have affected their revenues, and their selling summers — which this projects to be — often see them spend less than they earn, I think that’s fair. However, to come up with a more exact “budget” for Napoli, we also need to decide who will stay, who will go and how much money Napoli will earn in the process— from a predominantly predictive perspective, mind you. I’m going to divide each of Napoli’s current players into three categories: stay, leave & loan, to broadly assess the squad and determine an approximate budget for this summer.
- Alex Meret: Stay
Alex Meret’s excellent performance in Napoli’s recent scudetto-season is perhaps the biggest argument in favor of it all being a massive fluke. Meret had largely underwhelmed in previous seasons, and he has gone back to doing so this season. With that being said, I can only assume that the market for him is weak, while I also think Napoli aren’t ready to completely move on from him. Instead I think he will battle Elia Caprile for a starting spot, and if it comes down to it I think I know who’s winning that battle. - Elia Caprile: Stay
It’s only reasonable to question how good Elia Caprile is at this point, as he’s coming off of his debut Serie A season in which he didn’t really excel in any area. Caprile is about to turn 23, which is by all means very young for a goalkeeper, but he also showed enough last season to warrant a starting spot over Alex Meret next season. The ceiling of Caprile is in doubt, but his ability compared to that of Meret is not, so naturally he should start next season. - Pierluigi Gollini: Leave (Expiring loan)
Remember when Napoli signed this guy? Well, since Meret has regressed to the mean whereas Elia Caprile has established himself as one of the better goalkeepers in the league, it’s hard to see where Gollini fits in. If Meret were to leave, there would be clear incentive to bring in Gollini permanently, but for now it seems as though Meret and Caprile are going to fight for a starting spot next season. - Amir Rrahmani: Stay
Especially coming off of the season he’s coming off of, Rrahmani’s defensive prominence is as questionable as it has ever been. However, with the right support around him we have seen him excel even out of possession, and in possession his ball-playing is unquestionably highly valuable. Besides, selling Rrahmani seems unrealistic anyway. - Leo Østigård: Stay
With the center-back market being poor and Napoli seemingly being set to bring in two new center-backs, another change in defense will be excessive, and since Leo Østigård is only a depth piece, replacing him wouldn’t move the needle anyway. By all means, it is to be determined whether or not Østigård is worthy of being a long-term piece for this project, but I would actively try to keep him for this summer, in order to maintain some degree of continuity in defense. - Juan Jesus:Leave (€2m)
Napoli’s confirmed search for a younger, inexperienced center-back makes it clear that one of its otherwise projected depth defenders will have to leave. In that case, Juan Jesus is the clear odd one out. Farewell, champion. - Natan: Stay
Natan has shown some flashes in his first season at Napoli, but personally I’m just about as confused by this signing now as I was when it happened. I suppose Natan isn’t bad, but rather very average, and he’s another player who I definitely wouldn’t consider a long-term piece unless he shows significant improvement in the coming year(s). But what are you going to do, sell him? There are many reasons why that won’t happen, and why that’s probably not a good idea anyway, so he’ll stay as a depth piece. - Giovanni Di Lorenzo: Leave (€22m)
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. I really want to call Giovanni Di Lorenzo and his agent’s bluff, after the club has literally had to release a statement denying GDL’s claim that his client will leave Napoli this summer; a statement in which a transfer was also ruled out… Still, as we speak, Di Lorenzo remains the captain of Napoli, and while he hasn’t been an inning as transparent as his agent has been, and we similarly don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes. It’s easy to imagine that Di Lorenzo’s relationship with Napoli took an ugly turn during the past nightmarish season for the club. Again, we’re talking about the captain here, and if we assume that he’s absolutely set on leaving due to a rift between him and the club, it’s a little bit hard to see him staying no matter what. Yes, I think it matters that Napoli have outwardly stated they will not sell Di Lorenzo — they’ve also stated that Di Lorenzo has a contract until 2028, which means they have all the leverage in the world. However, my understanding at this point is that the relationship between Di Lorenzo and Napoli is bad, and in such a case I think keeping him would just be counterproductive for Napoli — after all he turns 31 this year anyway. The fact that Napoli have recently also been linked to numerous right wing-backs says a lot in my opinion. I’m leaning towards a separation here. - Pasquale Mazzocchi: Stay
Who knows, man, it wouldn’t shock me if Napoli were to send Naples’ own Pasquale Mazzocchi away after having just signed him a few months prior, but I won’t believe it until I see anything reported. I’m not a huge fan of Mazzocchi, but I think he can be a fine backup in a three-back system, and it would certainly be harsh to judge him by what he’s done at Napoli so far, because he really hasn’t been given a chance at all. - Adam Zanoli: Leave (€4m)
I’m probably higher on Adam Zanoli than most, but while I would probably have him as a backup right wing-back ahead of Pasquale Mazzocchi, Napoli have made their lack of appreciation towards Zanoli apparent in recent years. - Piotr Zieliński: Leave (Expiring contract)
Piotr Zieliński to Inter is a done deal. - André-Frank Zambi Anguissa: Stay
There have been some fringe rumors that André-Frank Zambo Anguissa could leave as well as Giovanni Di Lorenzo, but this is something I’m less willing to believe. I can imagine there being a market for Anguissa’s out East, but I don’t think neither the club nor he are set on a departure this summer. - Jens-Lys Cajuste: Stay
The way Jens-Lys Cajuste’s first season at Napoli developed was really, really unfortunate. I think he was one of the primary victims of the really poor environment at Napoli last season, and I still fully believe in his ability after what he showed France. Given he was only signed a year ago, I would also like to think that Napoli aren’t ready to give up on him just yet, either. - Leander Dendoncker: Leave (Expiring loan)
Napoli winter mercato 2024, I will never forget you. - Gianluca Gaetano: Leave (€4m)
A lengthy explanation shouldn’t be necessary here. Gaetano is nothing but a financial asset to Napoli at this point, and I’m confident there will be Serie A interest in him this summer. - Hamed Junior-Traorè: Leave (Expiring loan)
Napoli winter mercato 2024, I will never forget you. - Stanislav Lobotka: Leave (€28m)
I’m not exactly sure if there’s a huge market for Lobotka, and while there have been rumors that André-Frank Zambo Anguissa could leave, I don’t think the entirety of Napoli’s scudetto midfield will leave, and I think Lobotka is the odd one out between himself and Anguissa (Zielinski has already left). The reason why is that his style of play just isn’t too suited towards Conte in my opinion, which is not to say that it’s a disastrous fit, but rather an awkward one. The only midfielder Napoli have reliably been linked with as of the making of this post is Enzo Barrenechea, which certainly *implies* that Lobotka is more likely to leave than Anguissa. Lobotka is a classic regista, whose positional awareness and surprisingly strong defensive fundamentals make him a respectable defender in the right setup, but I don’t think that applies to Conte’s setup. Instead, I think Conte would want a more hard-working and physically prominent midfielder in his double pivot. - Michael Folorunsho: Stay
Michael Folorunsho is not a very good football player, but for whatever reason many have been impressed with his recent season on loan at Hellas Verona, and he seems guaranteed to be in Napoli’s plans for next season. I guess he runs a lot? - Diego Demme: Leave (Expiring contract)
Cristiano Giuntoli signed this guy for €10m. - Mathías Olivera: Stay
As negotiations over Mario Hermoso have stalled and no alternatives have reliably been linked to Napoli yet, I both hope and think that Mathías Olivera will start for Napoli next season — preferably as their left center-back. - Mário Rui: Leave (€3.5m)
Mário Rui was shockingly good during the scudetto season, but with his performances since, his track record prior to the scudetto season, and his age, it’s clear that he’s not good enough for Napoli. He could perhaps be a serviceable backup, but as mentioned it seems as though Napoli want to bring in a left wing-back, which makes Mário Rui’s departure a practical guarantee as long as there is a market for him. - Matteo Politano: Leave (€11m)
Extending Matteo Politano’s contract as it was previously set to expire this summer was… certainly a move. At this point Napoli have too many right wingers, and Politano feels like the obvious odd man out. If Napoli can somehow make a good bit of money by selling Politano, the contract extension will turn out to have been a subtle masterclass. I don’t think it’s a guarantee that there is a market for Politano at all, but I do think there’s a good chance. - Cyril Ngonge: Stay
I was never a big fan of Cyril Ngonge, personally, but I think you simply have to give him a chance now that you’ve signed him. He hasn’t impressed so far at Napoli, but he also hasn’t been provided with a good opportunity to prove himself, partly because he hasn’t consistently played in what seems to be his strongest position; right wing. - Jesper Lindstrøm: Leave (Loan with option to buy—€24m)
A player who should never have been signed in the first place due to the poor tactical fit — something which has hardly changed for the better with Antonio Conte. I think it’s best to cut your losses on Lindstrøm as soon as possible, and in his case I actually do believe there would be interest in him this summer if he were to be transfer listed. However, I also think that a loan that could end in a permanent move is the most likely formula in that case. - Victor Osimhen: Leave (€130m)
Victor Osimhen has rather boldly already announced that he will leave Napoli in the summer, and while it’s not easy to determine where he will end up at the moment, I would be surprised if no one ends up triggering his €130m release clause. - Giovanni Simeone: Leave (€12m)
I would have liked to keep Giovanni Simeone as a backup striker if I were Napoli, but both the club and the player seem set on parting ways this summer. - Walid Cheddira: Leave (€6m)
Terrible player, idiotic signing — with all due respect. Sell him immediately. - Giuseppe Ambrosino: Loan
One of very few promising developmental guys at Napoli at the moment. It’s hard to make much of Ambrosino’s loan stint at Catanzaro last season, but I can only assume that he will get another opportunity to develop elsewhere next season, and hopefully he will subsequently show a lot of growth. - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Stay
Both Kvaratskhelia’s agent and his father have recently expressed a desire for him to leave Napoli, but I’m going to call their bluff and say that Napoli won’t sell both of their star players this summer. I’m more inclined to believe this club statement than the one concerning Giovanni Di Lorenzo. - Giacomo Raspadori: Stay.
Similarly to Lindstrøm, Giacomo Raspadori was a somewhat raw player with a unique tactical profile when Napoli signed him — for a big fee at that — and it has seemed like Napoli just haven’t had a solid plan for how to develop him. Still, there’s hardly going to be a significant market for Raspadori at this point, in which case I think Raspadori would be an efficient solution for the role of backup striker — a role which he suits better than left wing. - Alessio Zerbin: Leave (€3m)
Same as with Gianluca Gaetano, except I’m less certain of how much interest there will be in Zerbin. I do think Napoli will be able to offload him however.
These incoming transfer fees add up to …, which is going to be our roughly estimated budget for this mock mercato. It may seem like a lot, and it is to an extent, but we also have to account for the fact that Napoli will have a lot of issues to address with their projected sales in this instance. Specifically, they will need to/will likely bring in two starting center-backs, a starting right wing-back, a starting defensive midfielder, a new left wing-back, a starting right winger, and a striker. With that being said, let’s discuss my projected signings.
Alessandro Buongiorno (€40m)
Alessandro Buongiorno to Napoli practically seems like a done deal at this point, and this is honestly a signing that I dislike. It’s not too hard to understand why Napoli would want a player like Buongiorno — they’ve desperately lacked a defensive leader since the departure of Kim Min-jae and their defense has subsequently collapsed. A physically dominant and aggressive defender like Buongiorno might seem like the perfect solution to that problem, but I rather think Napoli should try to find the next Kim Min-jae, rather than identifying the most “defend-y” defender they can, and pay whatever they have to pay to acquire them. I have two issues with this move, one of which is that I think Buongiorno just isn’t very good, the other of which is that €40m is an outrageous price to pay for him. This is a classic Antonio Conte-signing which partly demonstrates why I dislike that move as well. The problem with Buongiorno isn’t just that he’s mediocre at best on the ball, but that he requires playing in a three-back system to mask his defensive flaws on top of that; he’s tactically limited. That might not seem like an issue when he’s going to play under Conte for the foreseeable future, and in fairness I guess that is the only upside of this deal. Buongiorno does indeed possess a lot of desirable defensive attributes, as he’s both a dominant duel winner and a very strong box defender — maybe that’s enough to lead a Conte-managed team to success on the defensive end? Even then, I still think Buongiorno’s stiffness is an issue — even in a system in which he’s less exposed. Notably, I expect him to struggle with 1v1 defending and general defensive efficiency more than you’d want your undisputed defensive leader to. Aside from that, though, the issue is that Buongiorno’s limited tactical profile along with his age of 25 makes him an incredibly weak long-term asset; he will almost definitely be seen as deadwood by the manager who inevitably takes over from Conte within the next couple of years. Naturally, this very typical Conte-signing is symbolic of what I don’t like about the managerial appointment of Conte for Napoli; I think Buongiorno might be fine for the short-term, but he’s not a game-changer, and in the long-term I can only see issues — just as is the case with Conte.
Rafa Marín (€10m)
A sign that Napoli’s recruitment will be a balance of players with potential and players who are ready to make an immediate impact, is the club’s interest in Rafa Marín. Investment in young players is something I think is important, but the problem with this potential signing is that I just don’t see what’s special with Marín. I would like to trust Giovanni Manna’s eye, given his success in the youth sector of Juventus, however both Marín’s film and output give me very little satisfaction. In terms of his in-possession output, it’s quite poor in and of itself. He ranks in the 27th percentile for pass completion, yet he also only ranks in the 33rd percentile for progressive passes per 90; the 38th percentile for progressive carries per 90; the 31st percentile for successful take-ons per 90 (via FBref). It is worth noting that these numbers don’t define Marín, as he’s spent the last year on loan at Alavés, who ranked last in average possession in La Liga last season. Still, while it’s maybe not fair to say Marín is bad on the ball because of his output, he certainly hasn’t shown me anything that implies he’s particularly good on the ball. Meanwhile, his defensive output is similarly poor; he ranks in the 26th percentile for tackles per 90, around average for interceptions per 90 and blocks per 90 respectively, in the 17th percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled, roughly average for aerial duels won per 90, and below average for aerial duel win percentage. Something that further contextual uses this output, however, is the fact that this past season was Marín’s first season playing at a higher level than the Spanish third division. With that in mind, I think the positive glimpses that the film capture have to be seen as valuable — the fact that he’s raw is natural, even though he is already 22 years old. What I do see glimpses of in Marín, is a defender with a great physical profile; tall (1.91 m), strong but not overly burly (78 kg), with solid defensive fundamentals. Additionally, Marín having spent seven years in Real Madrid’s youth sector bodes well for his technical ability, although his output and film may not show much at all. Still, I generally don’t see it with Marín, and while I don’t actively dislike this signing, I also think that there are plenty of options that are better than Marín, if Napoli are to invest in a cheap, young defender who will temporarily provide depth.
Raoul Bellanova (€20m)
The most recent right-back/right wing-back link for Napoli has been Amar Dedić, which implies that the sale of Giovanni Di Lorenzo isn’t off the table after all, as mentioned. In any case, I think Raoul Bellanova is an even more likely signing if GDL does leave, and this is actually a fit that I really like for Napoli. Bellanova is coming off a very good season at Torino, in which he showed that Simone Inzaghi might have one flaw after all: his youth development. I do think it’s worth bringing up that Bellanova failed at Inter, under a coach who I believe is perhaps the best in the world at getting the most out of his players. He did not get the most out of Raoul Bellanova however; nor has he gotten the most out of the young Kristian Asllani, who was signed in the same summer. What really implies that there isn’t much wrong with these players in terms of talent, is the fact that they’ve never really failed to prove themselves on the pitch. Bellanova especially has shown plenty of promise both before and after his stint at Inter, while Asllani established himself as one of the most exciting midfield prospects in the Serie A prior to his stint at Inter, while also having played fairly well when given a chance at Inter. The issue is more so that Inzaghi has prioritized playing more experienced players, likely in an attempt to maximize short-term results. So, this is to say that Bellanova is not a player who simply “doesn’t have what it takes to play for a top club” — whatever that means. Instead, I think he’s essentially the perfect right wing-back for Antonio Conte.
Bellanova is not exactly a defensive anchor of a full-back, but he has just the combination of pace, power and technique that you’d want from a Conte-wing-back. Even in a team that desperately lacked attacking edge last season, Bellanova amassed seven assists, backed by great underlying numbers; over the last year he ranks in the 81st percentile among full-backs for npxG+xAG per 90 (via FBref). Additionally, he ranks in the 96th percentile for progressive carries per 90 and the 86th percentile for successful take-ons per 90, which further illustrates why he’s such a good fit for Conte. He’s not exactly a defensively dominant full-back, nor someone who excels in patient buildup play, but rather Bellanova has the work ethic and physical traits to be a pendulum on the right hand side, and the technical ability to create danger with the few touches on the ball he’s given. In the opposing half his ball-carrying and dribbling are hugely important traits out wide, and on top of that he clearly also has the necessary decisiveness when it comes to the final third. A prototypical Conte-wing-back, whose age of just 24 means he *might* even be valuable to Napoli in the post-Conte-era.
Enzo Barrenechea (€20m)
Spoiler: Enzo Barrenechea is one of two projected signings from Juve, which does admittedly feel a little bit off. In any case, I don’t think Juve has a lot of leverage in either of these cases, because many factors imply that Juve plan on earning as much as they can from player sales this summer, with the goal of significantly reconstructing the current squad. So, in the case of Enzo Barrenechea, they don’t necessarily have to sell him, but chances are they really want to sell him for the right amount of money. As long as Napoli can offer the right amount of money, I think Juve will be fine with strengthening a rival — and don’t get it twisted, this is by all means a mutual rivalry, as much as juventini like to deny it. What’s more is that we do know that Napoli are interested in Barrenechea — perhaps no surprise, considering Napoli’s new sporting director Giovanni Manna worked with Barrenechea in Juve’s youth sector for multiple years. It wouldn’t surprise me if Barrenechea were Manna’s primary target to be *his* first midfielder at Napoli.
But is this a good idea for Napoli? Is Barrenechea any good? Well, it’s important to be nuanced, and while I do think that Conte is highly problematic in terms of his long-term squad impact, I think it would be silly to argue that the clubs he manages never make great signings. We saw plenty of poor ones in his most recent stint, at Tottenham, but we also saw Dejan Kulusevski, Rodrigo Bentancur and Pedro Porro — not all perfect players, but all solid signings who have shown to have a future at the club post-Conte. Similarly, Barrenechea is still only 23 years old and he should be a nice addition for both the short-term and the long-term. It might even be worth adding that Barrenechea only made his senior debut outside of Serie C a little over a year ago, when he surprisingly started in the derby against Torino. That is to say that Barrenechea could have more growth left to do than his age would suggest, similarly to Rafa Marín. This is relevant because Barrenechea is still a raw player, which is what concerns me a little bit about this fit. Barrenechea does largely fit that hard-working and physically prominent midfield role more than someone like Stanislav Lobotka, but he’s still very unreliable in his duel winning, meaning he might not be the defensive anchor that a surely scudetto-aspiring Conte-team would need. Sure enough, he ranks around average for tackles per 90 and interceptions per 90 respectively, whereas his percentage of dribbles tackled is very low (via FBref). He can lack discipline out of possession, but his physical profile as well as the film suggest a brighter future than some of his output. In fact, his defensive output is not even all bad. At 1.86 m and 81 kg, it’s clear that Barrenechea is a different player from Lobotka—he’s a much more physically imposing and imposing player, as is exemplified by him ranking in the 78th percentile for blocks per 90, the 83rd percentile for aerial duels won per 90 and the 70th percentile for aerial duel win rate. Perhaps Barrenechea’s rough edges are mainly a by-product of his senior inexperience, and he could subsequently take another leap next season. The only issue is that that’s probably not a bet you would love to take if you expect to compete for the scudetto, as mentioned—it’s hard to find a balance between potential and/or long-term value, and short-term impact, which is one of the issues with Conte.
It should still be said that Barrenechea’s in-possession game is highly promising, and overall he’s actually not *too* dissimilar from Stanislav Lobotka. Certainly, Barrenechea projects to be a highly skilled regista if everything pans out, but he is yet to display the same level of technical security — which could by all means be a matter of tactical context, although I suppose that’s not something that would necessarily change for the better under Conte. If anything, Conte could help Barrenechea take a leap in his progressive play. In any case, Barrenechea’s defensive upside and profile in contrast to Lobotka should still be emphasized. In fact, even the fact that he’s significantly younger than Lobotka makes this a progressive move in my opinion. In our projection, Barrenechea would be playing next to André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, who would return to a more off-ball oriented role that suits him quite well; one which would also complement Barrenechea very well. I am a little bit worried about the defensive security of that pivot, but I can also imagine that it turns out to be just fine. Is it scudetto-caliber? No, and I want to press on the fact that this is the fundamental issue with this move for Napoli—it compromises their long-term situation while offering very little guarantees in the short-term. Nonetheless, I generally like this signing. Barrenechea legitimately has high potential and does not fit the mould of tactically limited players who are tailor-made for Conte and nothing else.
Miguel Gutiérrez (€30m)
Another projected signing that I like is Miguel Gutiérrez. Sure enough, he’s a very solid player who fits his projected role excellently, but who’s also young; has plenty of room to grow, and is tactically versatile enough to be able to return to a four-back setup in the future. That is the positive aspect of this deal. The negative aspect of it is that it’s very hard to foresee how feasible it is. After all, it has to be said that Gutiérrez would be moving from a Champions League team that has made constant progress in recent years, to a team that won’t even play in European competitions next season. That’s not to say that there is no reason for Gutiérrez to be intrigued by the idea of signing for Napoli—they are an infinitely bigger club than Girona, and there are probably still plenty of players around Europe who would be honored to play under Antonio Conte. Still, if there is even a little bit of Champions League competition for Gutiérrez, I’m not sure Napoli have a chance to pull this off.
In any case, if Napoli can pull this off, it would be the only projected signing which would see them bring in a player who’s both an excellent short-term solution and potentially a long-term cornerstone. Gutiérrez is a very technical and offensively prominent full-back, who could thereby excel in a wing-back role under Conte, and he’s also yet to turn 23 years old. There are no asterisks next to that statement. Gutiérrez is a smooth, highly efficient and relatively progressive player in possession, with great ball-striking and a subsequent creative edge. He notably ranks in the 94the percentile for npxG+xAG per 90 among full-backs over the last year, and also ranks in the 93rd percentile for pass completion, and above average for progressive passes, progressive carries and successful take-ons respectively (via FBref). He leaves a little bit to be desired defensively, but in a wing-back role this wouldn’t be much of an issue anyway. I don’t see Gutiérrez as a prototypical Conte-wing-back the same way I see Bellanova, but I do think Gutiérrez would be an even more impactful signing. Technical ability isn’t an essential trait of a wing-back under Conte, but it sure doesn’t hurt, and Gutiérrez’s final third excellence might just be his strongest trait anyway. Again, he is still yet to even turn 23 years old, and with his experience in the Real Madrid youth sector and a Girona team that qualified for the Champions League last season, he’s more than ready to be a difference-maker for a team of Napoli’s caliber. It could be that the stars have aligned perfectly for Napoli to make an uncontested move for Gutiérrez, in which case he could be a dream signing.
Leonardo Spinazzola (Free)
This is a move that I don’t adore, but which also seems quite trivial anyway. Is there much of a point in trading Mário Rui for Leonardo Spinazzola? Eh. It probably doesn’t hurt, and while Rui might legitimately be the better player at this point, Spinazzola’s physical profile and directness makes him a much better fit for Antonio Conte. Spinazzola doesn’t have the final third edge which he once had, while he’s also turned into a complete defensive liability (if he wasn’t already). Nonetheless, Spinazzola’s ability as a vertical threat due to his ball-carrying, dribbling, speed and work-rate make him a very nice fit under Conte, even though he doesn’t have much gas left in the tank. Best case scenario, Spinazzola rediscovers the decisiveness which once made him such a scenario, but that doesn’t have to be the outcome for him to serve as a fine backup wing-back.
Federico Chiesa (€35m)
As hinted at, I am projecting Napoli to make two signings from Juventus this summer, and while this would be controversial — this signing especially — I really don’t think it’s too farfetched of an outcome. In Federico Chiesa’s case especially, it’s pretty clear that Juve are open to selling him, as he now has just a year left on his contract. With that being the case and with Chiesa having shown as little as he has over the last three (!) years, I think it’s inevitable that most of the interest Juve will receive will come from their rivals, as opposed to from abroad. If Juve are open (!) to letting go of Chiesa, it will ultimately be for a reason; they aren’t fully convinced by him as a player. Thus, they won’t necessarily view a move to Napoli as them strengthening a rival. With that being said, they might ask for a bit more money than they normally would have, if a club like Napoli expresses interest in Chiesa. So far, Roma is the primary team that has been linked with Chiesa, but there have also been rumblings of interest from Napoli — a club which should have the means to meet Juve’s demands, unlike Roma.
For me, Napoli going for Chiesa would make a lot of sense, although it’s not an idea that I love personally. It very much feels like a Conte signing, given Chiesa’s reputation in Italy. He’s shown very little over the last three years, but injuries and a poor manager have indeed held him back, and I absolutely still believe Chiesa is a good player… in fact, I started writing this before Italy’s Euro 2024 premiere against Albania, and I would be lying if I said it didn’t make me slightly question my thoughts on Chiesa. Anyway, I don’t think Chiesa’s physical profile is *quite* what it once was, but he’s by all means still both very quick and strong (as shown against Albania)—desirable traits for a Conte-player. Furthermore, he has previously shown excellent movement and phenomenal ball-striking, which make him a very interesting fit for that right wing role under Conte. I think his dribbling and creativity are easily overrated, but I also recognize that he’s very good at creating his own shot, which aligns more with what I imagine his role would be under Conte—especially in a presumably vertical team. Perhaps a good comparison/projection is Willian from Conte’s title-winning season at Chelsea in 2016 — 17. I honestly like this fit quite a lot, but I don’t know if I would spend €35m on a player who turns 27 this year; has a bad injury history; has shown very little in the last three years. In any case, I don’t dislike this move, I suppose… but will it win Napoli a scudetto? You know my thoughts.
Romelu Lukaku (€45m)
Yeah… this is not it. The idea of Conte wanting to reunite with Lukaku at Napoli quickly went from media gossip to Lukaku having seemingly been confirmed as Napoli’s number one target to replace Victor Osimhen. It’s a move I could have been willing to hear out a year ago, but in the year that has since passed I feel as though I have seen enough to conclude that Lukaku is essentially washed, and he’s only going to get worse. By all means, I still think Lukaku is a solid striker, but I do not think he’s much more than that. In fact if you merely look at his output, it’s hard to see that he’s a good player at all. Whereas he briefly looked like a revived– and borderline world class player in his last months at Inter, he has looked physically declined and less decisive than ever before at Roma. The tactical context absolutely matters, but the fact that Lukaku ranks average-below average in almost every statistical category (via FBref) is not excused by that. I still believe in Lukaku’s holdup play and creativity, but, again, I think he’s been declining physically, and it’s only going to get worse; subsequently his output is going to decline at the same pace. Lukaku looks increasingly stiff and sluggish while maintaining his usual clumsiness, and it has both made him less decisive in the final third and less proficient in buildup. Sure, it was Antonio Conte who revived Lukaku’s plan at Inter — largely by changing his diet and putting Lukaku in top physical shape. However, that should be a lot harder to emulate with a now-31-year old Lukaku.
I think Lukaku could be okay for Napoli in terms of his level of performances in his first season, but I think the ceiling of this low is incredibly low, and the worrying part is the financial aspect of it. Lukaku is quite blatantly regressing, and his release clause of approximately €45m is extortionately high, and I can only imagine that his wage demands will be too. This just isn’t a good move by any means, and it once more illustrates the issue with Conte’s impact on squad-planning. This is a terrible long-term asset, and in the short-term I would be stunned if Lukaku helps Napoli achieve material success. In fact, I almost view this potential signing as the nail in the coffin for Napoli’s scudetto hopes—this just is not a scudetto striker… although I guess Olivier Giroud wasn’t either.
Armand Laurienté (€13m)
It’s time for Napoli to address the need for a backup left winger, and they better hope that Laurienté is willing to take on a small role on a team that won’t be playing in European competitions next season (meaning less rotation), because the alternative options are really not great. In fact, while I do think Laurienté is somewhat overrated, I do think he’s too good to be a backup for a team like Napoli. He’s coming off of a disappointing season with Sassuolo, but they did get relegated, and in the previous season he stood out as a highly exciting dribbler and ball-carrier, with fringe final third excellence. Really, this is a player I would have recommended for Roma in my Roma–mercato article, if I knew that Sassuolo were only demanding €12m-€13m to sell Laurienté (via Nicolò Schira). Anyway, if possible, Laurienté is another quick, strong and vertical player who would fit Conte’s style of play excellently. Perhaps it wouldn’t be an extremely impactful signing as Napoli already have Khvicha Kvaratskhelia as a solidifed starter (unless he leaves of course), but the gap between Laurienté and the next best backup left wing option for Napoli is substantial.
Depth chart:
Expenditure: €208m
Income: €225.5m
Net spend: €17.5m
The beginning of the end
So, what will come of Conte’s stint at Napoli in the end? Well, I’m sure Napoli will be a lot better next season than they were this past season, so there is that. Simultaneously, I don’t think they will win anything in the process, and I don’t expect that to change in the coming seasons either. So far in this article I haven’t even brought up the volatility-aspect of Conte yet, and what could come with him working with Aurelio De Laurentiis. Listen, I don’t even want to press too much on this point, but it’s obvious that this move is even poetic in the sense that it’s volcanic and could go terribly wrong—for reasons that are not strictily football-related, that is. At least abroad, Conte has gained the reputation of being a problematic and unpredictable personality, and while I don’t necessarily predict that this stint will end in a volcanic eruption, I just don’t see how it will work out… well, I guess I do see it in theory: Conte does his magic, Napoli win the scudetto within two seasons, and all is well. But as mentioned, countless times, I just strongly believe that won’t happen. The only way I can see that happening, is a 2021–22-Milan-esque season, but even then the competition around the top of the league is so much stronger now anyway. Not to mention, it’s probably not a great idea to hire a manager who strictly offers potential short-term success, when that short-term success is reliant on Napoli getting all the margins on their side.
If I were to predict, I think Conte is going to give off the illusion of progress having been made in his first season, and then he will leave after his second season — having won nothing, and leaving the club in a worse place than it was when he arrived. I don’t think we will see much youth development under Conte even if Manna provides him with the likes of Gutiérrez and Barrenechea. I certainly expect the presence of Manna to mitigate the danger of Conte’s absolutist short-term-based focus, but a perfect balance cannot be found. Napoli will not be able to excel at player–/youth development and simultaneously build a team that’s meant to immediately compete for trophies. Even with Manna’s presence, I expect Napoli to recruit many flawed and tactically limited players — some of which will be old — with the idea of bringing in players who fit Conte’s system and can make an immediate impact, only for most of those players to be deadweight by the time Conte has left. Buongiorno, Lukaku, and perhaps even Chiesa, are all an example of this. When Conte leaves, I anticipate that the squad will lack young talent, and be full of players who are only really suited to a three-back system and/or are regressing. We saw it at Chelsea, we saw it at Tottenham, and we arguably even saw it at Inter. The fact that Conte is going to be Serie A’s highest paid coach by a significant margin also isn’t ideal. So, again, I don’t guarantee that this will end in a volcanic eruption, but I do think that Napoli will fail to win anything under Conte, and perhaps more importantly, I think they will be in a worse position than they are now once he leaves.
I really think that Napoli should’ve stuck with a manager of the Sarri-Spalletti mould — especially because they had multiple options here. Roberto De Zerbi and Francesco Farioli were two alternative options, but my favorite option was Vincenzo Italiano. I’ve already written about my thoughts on this fit in this article and in this thread, but to summarize I think this move would have gotten Napoli back on track. Would they necessarily have won titles under Italiano? No, but they’re also Napoli, so that can’t be the expectation anyway. This may sound hypocritical considering I criticized Conte because I don’t think he would win with Napoli, but if anything this just helps illustrate my point. The only reason you anyone would hire Conte is to get a short-term boost and potentially win something in the near future. If you want progress and sustainability, Conte should not be your guy. Is that what Napoli want? It certainly should be, because I don’t think any manager in the world would guarantee them a title in the short-term. With the appointment of Giovanni Manna as sporting director, Napoli had a chance to get back on track. Or rather, Napoli had a chance to return to their roots. In modern times, Italy’s big three of Juventus, Inter and Milan has almost expanded into a big four, with the fourth team being Napoli — much thanks to Maurizio Sarri and Luciano Spalletti. This might sound ridiculous when you consider that Napoli have only won one scudetto this century, but since the start of the 2010’s that’s only one scudetto less than Milan. In fact, Napoli have finished above both them and Inter many times in this span. Whether they know it or not, clubs like Roma, Fiorentina and Lazio have the blueprint in ADL’s Napoli—the irony of it all is that I feel like I’m just repeating what I discussed in this article about Roma, where I criticized Roma’s project with José Mourinho, and specifically referenced Napoli as having created the blueprint for the non-striped clubs in Italy. Those clubs will always be at a disadvantage compared to the big three, but they still have the potential to sustainably compete with them, and eventually a scudetto could come out of it — as Napoli evidently demonstrated last year. Now, with Napoli seemingly abandoning their previous sporting identity, perhaps this marks the beginning of the end of the Aurelio De Laurentiis-era.
