Lazio Do Not Matter
Società Sportiva Lazio is perhaps Europe’s most miserable club. Laziali may tell you that they support the club of Rome; “Lazio is Rome’s oldest football club, and, uh, Roma was founded in Abruzzo.” But, they fool no one, we can be honest. Roma have won more derbies than Lazio, they have won more scudetti than Lazio, they have won more Coppe Italia than Lazio, they’re about as close to Juventus as to Lazio in the all-time Serie A table, they have way more supporters, and they actually have an identity. Lazio had about a 20-year head start over Roma, and they still, unquestionably, ended up in Roma’s shadow. What laziali hate more than anything else, is a football club that is simply bigger, better and more important than theirs. Roma are everything Lazio are not. Neither team is very good right now, but the Olimpico is regularly sold out and loud as ever when Roma play, whereas it almost looks abandoned outside of the Curva Nord when Lazio play. And it may sound like I’m just insulting the club at this point, but this is just the way things are. Lazio’s curse is that they are a smaller club held to the standard of a bigger club for eternity. Their status as one of the biggest clubs in Italy is immortalized through the idea of the “seven sisters” of Italian football. Who are they? There’s Juventus, Italy’s most successful club. Then there’s Inter and Milan, the titans from Milan with 39 scudetti and 13 European titles between them. There’s Roma, the club from the capital; the eternal city. There’s Napoli, a club that embodies the biggest and most important city of the south. There’s Fiorentina, the sole club from one of the most culturally important cities in Europe. As for Lazio, well, they’re in the family, but it’s clear they don’t really belong. Roma don’t win a lot, but Roma is Roma. Napoli don’t win a lot, but Napoli is Napoli. Fiorentina don’t win a lot, but Fiorentina is Firenze. Lazio don’t win a lot, and there is no “but”. They’re not a particularly successful club competitively, and simultaneously they’re outsiders culturally. You know the one thing people generally associate Lazio with? Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler. I mean come on, those were the bad guys… like, the worst!
Maybe it was all doomed from the start? After all, despite really being Rome’s oldest football club, Lazio failed on the very first step, by naming the club after its region, as opposed to its city. Besides, who the hell associates Rome with the color blue? Man, they just couldn’t help themselves, and it seems they still can’t. Can we? I don’t know man, put it this way; Lazio had Simone Inzaghi, Ciro Immobile, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Luis Alberto, Stefan de Vrij, Francesco Acerbi, Lucas Leiva, etc for multiple years, and you know what happened? You know what they did with Italy’s best coach, three possibly world class players and multiple league-leading players? They won one Coppa Italia, and they finished in the top four just once. At least they were able to financially benefit from this core, right? Well, Inzaghi, de Vrij, and Leiva left for free; Acerbi left for a few million Euros; Immobile and Luis Alberto will likely end up for a combined fee that is lower than €20m; Milinković-Savić was sold for €40m, with a year left on his contract, after having been valued between €70m-€100m in previous years. Now the team is old and—as always—not very good. At least the coach is good, but so was the last one, and so was the one before that. So, can we help them? Well, I’m going to break down the current situation, and then I’m going to try to help them, but realistically this club is not going to go anywhere in real life, and I will explain why.
N.Y. State of Mind 2:07–2:10
Lazio may seem like they’re simply destined to be sixth or seventh in Italy for eternity, but while that may be their undeniable historical status, they have all the conditions to exceed what football expects of them. I am a firm believer in the power structures of football—as in I believe they exist, and that football is wildly undemocratic and unfair; Lazio can only go so far, for instance. However, their sporting direction still matters, and I think the ceiling for a lot of Italian clubs is just one scudetto. It is the ceiling, and it would be a miracle for most clubs, but it is very much possible. I think Atalanta have definitively demonstrated this, because they are quite a small club historically, yet in 2019–20 they really should have won the scudetto. Partly, they just didn’t have the margins go their away in terms of the points they won from their performances compared to the points their scudetto rivals won from their respective performances. More importantly, though, Josip Iličić—one of the best players on the planet at the time—would not even amass half of the possible minutes he could’ve gotten in the Serie A that season, for a variety of reasons. So, Lazio can do it. They can become a Champions League caliber team, first of all, but they could potentially even become scudetto contenders one day. So, why is it that they haven’t done so, in recent years especially? All those great coaches and great players, and they only qualified for the Champions League twice—both qualifications of which were predicated on substantial overperformances that didn’t reflect the true quality of the team. Well, I think the main problem is that the man in charge of the club is just another old, Italian fart, who is oh so very sleepy.
Claudio Lotito is a relic of the past. He is a 67-year man from Rome, as well as the owner and president of S.S. Lazio. He is also a dickhead. He is an old, Italian politician, and if you were to, hypothetically, lean into stereotypes, that would mean he is in the 99th percentile of unhinged human beings, and that he’s potentially, allegedly extremely corrupt. He belongs to a dying (quite literally) breed of owners at the top of Italian football. His closest counterpart would be Napoli’s Aurelio De Laurentiis, but while he is probably even more deranged and unhinged than Lotito, there is an undeniable method to his madness. Among the remaining of the “seven sisters”, Milan and Fiorentina are both owned by mostly uninteresting Italian-Americans, Inter’s previous owner was incompetent but not a memorable character, Roma are owned by an American, while Juventus are—of course—owned by the always proper, diplomatic and definitely-never-corrupt Agnelli family. So, even in this regard Lazio are the odd club out. It’s 2024; you need a serious owner/president to be a serious football club in Italy, and Claudio Lotito is not that. To a great extent, football is an area in which Italy is actually making progress– and moving on from whatever stereotypes may have plagued it in the past. It is reflected in the death of the uninspiring, stagnant and conservative Serie A of the 2010’s that I grew up with, and the rebirth of a Serie A that engages, excites and competes—around the turn of the decade. Claudio Lotito has not caught up, however. Aside from his volatile personality, he has led Lazio to remain a relic of the past in terms of any sort of sporting strategy. Sure, the primavera did very well this past season, but this isn’t the indication of any meaningful progress for the club. It is only ironic that perhaps the most conservative and outdated top club in Italy has been blessed with a really fantastic group of “progressive” coaches over the last eight years; Simone Inzaghi, Maurizio Sarri and now Igor Tudor. Because, this trend hasn’t actually aligned with the general sporting direction of the club. This has been reflected in the performances of the team, which—for the most part—have been poetically sleepy. It has not changed with Igor Tudor; his Lazio have averaged about 1.29 xG and 0.98 xGA per game (via Understat) against a very easy schedule so far; they never really create anything, and they also don’t concede much. We don’t even know whether or not Tudor is staying, despite having been just appointed not too long ago. So, I’ll give my thoughts on what Lazio could do in regards to this summer mercato, but I don’t think it’s going to make much difference. Caro Lotito, you are much more likely to get away with taking your beloved naps in the Chamber of Deputies than at the Olimpico. It’s time to move on, nonno.
*Read “Foreword” from last article*
Overall situation, squad assessment & needs
Lazio’s core from the Inzaghi-era will likely have entirely faded out by the end of the upcoming summer transfer window. The two players that remain are Ciro Immobile and Luis Alberto, and while the latter has requested to leave, the former—quite frankly—has simply regressed to the level of a bad Serie A striker, and is thereby no real use to Lazio no more. Luckily for them, they have a good bit of leverage that could help them maximize the profits from both of these sales; Immobile has a contract until 2026 and Luis Alberto has a contract until 2027. Both also have a strong reputation, which could perhaps help increase interest from the US or the Middle East. Furthermore, although they have only just activated the option to buy to sign Matteo Guendouzi, it seems like he could be on the way back to the Premier League for a lot more than I believe he’s worth. On top of that, Almería have an obligation to buy Luís Maximiano for a very generous fee of €9m. What is this to say? Well, similarly to Roma, Lazio’s squad may be old and extremely uninspiring. This past season, they ranked as the second oldest team in the Serie A—weighed by playing time (via FBref). Despite this, it looks like they will make a good bit of money from sales this summer, as much as they lack valuable assets. Even then, this might mainly help Lazio stay afloat, rather than them making any meaningful progress. Below, I will list my projected sales/departures and the potential transfer fees I have projected, then we can discuss further:
- Matteo Guendouzi (€25m/€12m including fee for option to buy)
- Luis Alberto (€12m)
- Luís Maximiano (€9m)
- Ciro Immobile (€8m)
- Matías Vecino (€3m)
- Toma Basic (€3m)
- Raúl Moro (€2m)
- Elseid Hysaj (€2m)
- Felipe Anderson (free)
- Pedro (free?)
- Daichi Kamada (free?)
The total income adds up to €64m, or rather €51m when you account for the cost of Guendouzi’s buy-option. That is not bad at all, because I would subjectively assess Lazio’s assess as being really weak. Furthermore, since the first post-pandemic season (I am counting this as 2021–22 despite some continued regulations and incidents throughout this seasons), Lazio have averaged a positive net spend of approximately €1.9m a season (via Transfermarkt). So, they essentially spend what they invest. With that in mind, a budget of roughly €50m might seem very good for a club like Lazio, but… eh. The reason it isn’t really, is the fact that Lazio’s squad is a lot worse than you might think. Last Winter, I ranked my top 100 players in the Serie A. Do you know how many Lazio players, excluding my projected departures, made that list? One. That is extremely bad, but maybe not *quite* as bad as it sounds. Because, the player in question is Nicolò Rovella, who I sincerely believe can become a world class midfielder in a year or two. Furthermore, I think Taty Castellanos has the upside to be a solid Serie A striker; I think Nicolò Casale can be quite an effective wide center-back in a three-back system; I may have underestimated Alessio Romagnoli; I think Gustav Isaksen has potential; Luca Pellegrini could be a good wing-back. That’s really all the upside I see in this team, though. It mostly consists of mediocre players, and some of them are outright bad. So, Napoli could use quality almost anywhere, and €50m simply isn’t enough to fill all the necessary gaps. Lazio will have to take risks, and bank on a lot of rawer players being developed under Igor Tudor… if he stays. I’m not even confident in Angelo Fabiani identifying players with good upside, let alone Tudor being able to help these players reach their potential. Nonetheless, Lazio have no choice but to try. Again, this team has a lot of needs, and these are the ones I have identified:
- Starting left center-back, suited towards a three-back system.
- Starting right wing-back.
- Starting 8 for Tudor’s double-pivot.
- Backup 8 for Tudor’s double-pivot.
- Loum Tchaouna… is probably being signed, so we will discuss him. He is primarily a right winger, in my opinion.
- Reliable backup striker.
Arthur Theate (€20m)
I think Rennes’ Arthur Theate is a great alternative for the left-center back role under Tudor. Aside from the respective defensive flaws of the players, what limits Lazio’s current core of center-backs is its general lack of progressive ability. This is why Theate would be such a good option. He, himself, may have some defensive flaws, but in possession he can be a real difference-maker; something which should only be enhanced if he’s played in a more progression-focused role rather than in a normal center-back partnership. His output, courtesy of FBref, tells us a few things. First of all, he ranks in the 93rd percentile among center-backs for progressive carries per 90, and he ranks in the 94th percentile for progressive passes per 90. Lazio’s prominent risk-aversion in possession is not only quite a fundamental reason for the team being so incredibly boring to watch, but it’s also an aspect that actively hinders the team effectively. It is a team that is desperate for some incisiveness and technical edge in possession. Would this come at the cost of added risk in possession, with Theate? Probably not, because Theate is a relatively efficient in possession, ranking well above average in average pass completion. Besides, there’s a reason why Lazio hardly tend to dominate possession anyway; their players don’t progress play a lot because they can’t; they can’t because they simply aren’t very technical, and thus aren’t able to retain the ball extremely well anyway. Theate would not only be a game-changer in earlier phases of buildup, but with his range of passing he could even be a fringe final third threat, akin to Alessandro Bastoni at Inter. Certainly, I think he would show that technical qualities are not just a bonus on a defender nowadays. However, as for his defending, he may be flawed but he’s not outright bad at anything and he has grown into a very reliable player in the air since he was last in Italy—then at Bologna. His Rennes are coming off of a disappointing season, and it’s quite possibly that his term in northwestern France has run its course. A return to Italy could suit all of the involved parties.
Yukinari Sugawara (€11m)
At right wing-back, we’re going to add another player who adds some incisiveness to this excruciatingly unthreatening Lazio team. What Lazio never had under Simone Inzaghi, was a high-quality wing-back, and with Tudor’s arrival signifying a return to the three-back system, that has to change. Sugawara seems like just the right guy for them. He would be one of multiple exports from AZ Alkmaar to the Serie A in recent years, and these have given fairly good results. I believe Yukinari Sugawara would be no exception. In a sense, his 11 non-penalty goal contributions in the Eredivisie this past season tell you enough; Lazio haven’t had a wing-back/full-back like that in years. In fact, only two Lazio players were able to amass this amount of non-penalty goal contributions in this past Serie A season; Felipe Anderson with 11 and Luis Alberto with 12. That is obviously not to say that Sugawara will necessarily add 11 goal contributions to Lazio if they bring him in, but I think this statistical comparison roughly illustrates that Lazio are in desperate need of some offensive firepower, and that Sugawara would provide that.
The reason for Sugawara’s effectiveness is primarily his excellent, versatile crossing, which is easily his biggest asset. In any given situation, Sugawara can be relied upon to play a decisive final pass, balancing power and precision depending on the situation. Sure enough, he ranks in the 93rd percentile for xAG per 90 (via FBref). He’s occasionally able to get into dangerous positions through attacking runs, but more commonly his right foot is his biggest weapon. As such, it’s not just his final ball that is dangerous, but also his finishing. Unlike someone like Nadir Zortea — mentioned in the previous article — Sugawara is not only a final third threat, but also someone who can be relied upon in buildup — especially for the standards of a wing-back. He’s an average ball-carrier, well above average in terms of pass completion, and he ranks in the 87th percentile for progressive passes per 90; showing his ball-striking once more. On top of that he is also a surprisingly astute defender—not a standout quality of his, but something to be noted nonetheless. As Sugawara is about to turn 24, he may not have much more room left to grow, but he has his whole career ahead of him. Similarly to Sam Beukema and Tijjani Reijnders, it seems like Sugawara is another player of AZ Alkmaar’s who’s being overlooked due to his age and the team he plays in. This could be an exceptional market opportunity for Lazio.
Giacomo Bonaventura & Gaetano Castrovilli—Free agent raid of Fiorentina
Lazio do have an issue with the age of their squad, especially with their lack of financial power, however the latter issue also means they simply cannot address the former issue with every signing they make either. In some cases, gaps just have to be filled. Following the breakdown in negotiations to keep Daichi Kamada at the club, Lazio need a quick fix in midfield, and if they can get Giacomo Bonaventura from Fiorentina when his contract expires this summer, I think they will be very happy. Indeed, Bonaventura turns 35 in August, but he has shown that he’s still a highly reliable Serie A midfielder, and all Lazio need is a stopgap anyway. It’s a player that really needs no introduction. I think his poor defensive fundamentals are a concern for him playing in a double-pivot, especially given Nicolò Rovella’s defensive volatility, but even at almost 35 years old, Jack still has a high work ethic and is a smart presser, which is not nothing. Meanwhile, he adds some obvious brilliance on the ball; even more incisiveness, most notably; in buildup as well as the final third. For me, those are some very appropriate qualities to have next to Rovella. Bonaventura has enjoyed an odd resurgence in terms of his reputation in recent times, perhaps best encapsulated by Luciano Spalletti comparing him to Jude Bellingham, but despite this I don’t think teams will be bending over backwards to sign him this summer. Following the unforeseen departure of Daichi Kamada, I think this is both a realistic and satisfying solution for Lazio.
As for Gaetano Castrovilli, there’s once more not too much to comment on. An obvious concern is his injury history, which has not only prevented him from reaching his potential but also saw a move to Bournemouth break down last year. However, Lazio are working on a tight budget and need an 8 who can serve as a backup. In that case, you’re probably going to sign someone who is either not very good at football (sorry, Matías Vecino), or quite injury-prone. I have opted for the latter, which I understand is problematic, but I just don’t think Lazio have that much of a choice—didn’t I say this club is miserable? I think I did. In any case, when Castrovilli is healthy, I think he gives Lazio the right profile next to the regista in the double-pivot. In the best case scenario, Castrovilli is able to stay healthy, revive his career, and replace Bonaventura in the future, but as long as he can stay healthy enough to fill on for Bonaventura, I think he fills his purpose all the same.
Really, all these two signings achieve is a kick of the can down the road, but that’s the sort of thing you have to do when you’re in the situation Lazio are in. Hopefully, they are able to increase the value of their younger players, make a profit on them in the future, and then reinvest that in positions they haven’t been able to adequately address in the past. That should certainly be the plan.
Loum Tchaouna (€10m)
As implied earlier, Loum Tchaouna seems to be set to be Lazio’s first signing of the summer. Going strictly off output (via FBref), he may seem like the worst player. Like, ever. Here, you truly have to see it to believe it:
The two statistical categories in which he even ranks average in, are clearances per 90 and aerial duels won per 90 respectively. For a winger that’s, uh, that’s not good. Of course there is context to add to this, but what this output doesn’t lie about is the fact that Loum Tchaouna is an extremely raw prospect. Sure, he’s still only 20 years old, but this is a really unrefined player we’re talking about here, and it’s hard to project just how much he will improve in the coming years. The biggest piece of context that is necessary to add to the output aboev, is the fact that Tchaouna has played for the worst team in the history of the Serie A’s 38-game era(s): Salernitana. That is going to hurt your output a lot, but it still doesn’t completely excuse just how bad the output is. If you look at Tchaouna’s output in Ligue 2 last season, it doesn’t look much better. However, when you watch Tchaouna play, some pretty obvious glimpses of quality show up. My player comparison is post-injury 2021–22-ish Nicolò Zaniolo, which isn’t the sexiest comparison, but I do think that version of Zaniolo was better than the current version of Zaniolo, and quite talented in fact. What made Zaniolo stand out back then was his profile as a sort of freight train of an inverted winger, who was simultaneously an oddly effective dribbler and ball-carrier. I see the same kind of qualities in Tchaouna. He’s an extremely powerful player who thereby also has very intriguing upside as a finisher due to his excellent ball-striking. His combination of athleticism, ball-striking and dribbling could become something special in the future. The classic question of “if he’s a good hitter why doesn’t he hit good?” comes up in regards to his dribbling, because 0.69 successful take-ons per 90 is horrifically bad, in fact he also ranks in the FIRST percentile for take-on completion rate, so fair enough; he is very, very raw. However, I think he has shown multiple flashes of maybe not being a dribbler of great flair, but of great efficiency and sometimes even great refinement. In terms of misdirection and manipulation, I see legitimate potential in Tchaouna.
Ultimately I think this is quite a boneheaded move for €10m, but I can understand why Lazio like Tchaouna. In a sense, he is everything Gustav Isaksen hasn’t been since he came to Lazio. Whereas Isaksen was meant to be more technically refined, with potential concerns about his adaptation to the physicality and pace of the Serie A, Tchaouna is an exceptionally raw footballer but extremely mature physically. He is ready to play a full 38-game Serie A season, most definitely, but will he be good in those 38 games? I’m not so sure. Tudor’s possession-based philosophy makes this signing even more questionable—I can imagine 2021–22 Zaniolo thriving under Tudor, but perhaps not Loum Tchaouna. He has a very heavy touch, his technical ability is extremely raw, and he has only shown glimpses of being good at, well, anything. So, for €10m this is an extremely risky signing, because that’s not pocket change for a club like Lazio. I suppose you hope he’s quickly able to refine his technique due to his still young age as well as his physical traits making him an effective player out of possession and in the final third, if you’re Lazio. Can he be that? Can Lazio have all those things go in their favor? Will Lazio hit the jackpot? Well, if I were a betting man…
Arkadiusz Milik (€7m)
Here again, I think it’s appropriate to not overthink the age issue Lazio is dealing with. I have faith that Taty Castellanos can be a very reliable striker under Igor Tudor—perhaps not too dissimilarly from Giovanni Simeone in 2021–22—however just in case that doesn’t pan out, I think you need a solid alternative. The budget is still tight, which is why an older, more experienced striker, who may be undervalued, could be the perfect profile. I am not a big fan of Arkadiusz Milik, but for well under €10m I think he can be an excellent backup striker. As a primary starter? It’s a completely different question, however his output over a limited sample size over the last year proves my point, I think. Notably, Milik ranks as high as in the 90th percentile for npxG+xAG per 90 among strikers, and he also ranks in the 86th percentile for pass completion (via FBref), which I think illustrates what he can offer as an alternative option fairly well. He’s a physically imposing target man with great box threat and highly reliable holdup play; a nicely contrasting profile to Castellanos in my opinion. I certainly believe Juve would be willing to sell Milik, and I think somewhere around €7m would be fantastic value for Lazio.
Depth chart:
Expenditure: €61m
Income: €64m
Net spend: €3m
Eternally mediocre?
Again, I don’t think there’s much Lazio can do to move the needle this summer, and thinking back to the Inzaghi years makes me feel especially confident in this being the case. Lazio are just so far behind the curve, and they need a revolution if they’re ever going to make any noise. Culturally, they might remain the odd one out of the “seven sisters”, but on the pitch it can be a different story. If Lazio have a good summer from a recruitment standpoint, it wouldn’t be unfair to claim that they have suddenly gone from being the second oldest team in the Serie A, to having a bright future—at least in reference to the squad. With the mercato we’ve laid out, Lazio would potentially have a long-term starting caliber goalkeeper in Christos Mandas; a long-term starting caliber center-back in Arthur Theate; a world class prospect in Nicolò Rovella; a long-term starting caliber full-/wing-back in Yukinari Sugawara; three wingers with upside in Loum Tchaouna, Matteo Cancellieri and Gustav Isaksen; a reliable starting striker in Taty Castellanos; a highly promising core of primavera players on the rise. That is certainly the optimistic perspective, but we don’t even know if Igor Tudor will remain at the club. As far as that is concerned, the actual outcome isn’t as significant as the fact that it’s even a possibility that Igor Tudor finds the environment at Lazio so unbearable that he might just leave at the beginning of the summer, after having just been hired a couple months ago. Let’s say he does abruptly leave, and Lazio replace him with a great coach like Vincenzo Italiano? That’s sort of what happened in 2016, when Marcelo Bielsa was initially hired as the new coach, and then he just left after two days—an embarrassing situation, sure, but he would be replaced by Simone Inzaghi, who is currently the best coach in Italy; one of the best in the world. But what did Lazio get out of Inzaghi, who we now know to be a world class coach, in the five years they had him? How did this best case scenario pan out for them? One Coppa Italia and one semi-flukey Champions League qualification. Certain actors within the club may very well be good– or even very good at what they do, but that won’t move the needle; we’ve already seen proof of it. Instead, Lazio need drastic change, of everything from culture to infrastructure. Everything has to be enhanced, and Lazio need to adapt to the times. As long as Lotito sleeps, Lazio will too.
